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Lieber or Pavano?

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Lieber or Pavano?

Postby Patella Tendon » Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:51 pm

Please help me decide on which one will do better this year.

Lieber - Pros
one more year removed from surgery
no longer facing DH

Lieber - Cons
moving to smaller park
becomes staff ace - facing other aces

Pavano - Pros
better hitting support
no longer staff ace

Pavano - Cons
smaller park (at least left field)
facing DH now
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Postby TB13 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:57 pm

Lots of people are down of Pavano this year. While I agree that his ERA is going to go up by moving to the AL East, I just cannot justify taking Leiber ahead of him. Leiber throws lots of strikes and is going to a launching pad. Last year, lots of balls that died in Death Valley in Yankee stadium are going to fly out of the yard in Philly. I am staying FAR away from Leiber this year.
Pavano, otoh, should be a fairly good #3 pitcher. Is he really going to be that much worse than Clement? Probably not. Pavano is falling in most mocks. If you can land him around the 10th round, you have a tremendous value pick.
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Postby Rkiivs » Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:09 pm

Actually, in my projections, these two guys are pretty much a mirror image of each other.

I'm not afraid of Lieber's sugery because he pitched pretty well last year. ERA was a bit high but I expect that to decrease this year as he gets a second year in from TJ surgery.

Pavano is questionable in that he seems a one-year wonder. He won't pitch as well as last year but I don't expect his stats to fall off completely.

I have both of these guys going about 15-9 and 3+ ERA. Personally, I hope Lieber puts up better than expected numbers.
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Re: Lieber or Pavano?

Postby kev921 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:25 pm

Patella Tendon wrote:Please help me decide on which one will do better this year.

Lieber - Pros
one more year removed from surgery
no longer facing DH

Lieber - Cons
moving to smaller park
becomes staff ace - facing other aces

Pavano - Pros
better hitting support
no longer staff ace

Pavano - Cons
smaller park (at least left field)
facing DH now


Also, what effect will changing leagues make? To what degree of a difference this will make, I am not sure. But I think each will not put up the same kind of numbers they experienced last year.
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Postby GameOn » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:34 pm

I think the question should be....take Pavano in like the 9th or 10th round or lieber much later? Pavano is going much earlier than Lieber and if you even think that their stats will be similar (and I do) then you are much better taking Lieber later.
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Postby Lofunzo » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:13 pm

All things equal, you have to take Pavano earlier.
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Postby TB13 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:41 pm

[quote="Lofunzo"]All things equal, you have to take Pavano earlier.[/quote]
Agreed. Leiber is going to lead the NL in giving up homers this year.
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Postby ajgnydc722 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:42 pm

I don't trust any pitchers in Philly. I'm not super high on Pavano either, but he definately goes before Lieber.
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Postby The Miner Part 2 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:43 pm

aylissa milano pavano by miles.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:44 pm

Carl Pavano by a lot.
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