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Omar Infante - does he breakout this year?

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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:28 pm

I think DD built an injury clause into his marriage.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:32 pm

When healthy he's a .290 hitter with 20 HR power. Even healthy for a whole season I'd take Tejada, Jeter, Rollins, Furcal, Cabrera, Nomar, and Young over him at SS. But a guy whose had an injury riddled career, with 3 good months to speak of when he's 30 years old... it just doesn't seem too appealing. I'd like to see him healthy for a year and don't doubt he could go .290-20-20 in a full season, but I'll believe that when I see it. The risk is too high for a reward that just doesn't seem that special to me.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:41 pm

LBJackal wrote:When healthy he's a .290 hitter with 20 HR power. Even healthy for a whole season I'd take Tejada, Jeter, Rollins, Furcal, Cabrera, Nomar, and Young over him at SS. But a guy whose had an injury riddled career, with 3 good months to speak of when he's 30 years old... it just doesn't seem too appealing. I'd like to see him healthy for a year and don't doubt he could go .290-20-20 in a full season, but I'll believe that when I see it. The risk is too high for a reward that just doesn't seem that special to me.


See - you are still extrapolating out your projections from when he was injured. How can you say when healthy he's a .290 hitter??? Clearly, the last time he was healthy was last yr and he hit .319. What are you using to come up with .290 - his stats from 2003, when he was playing through injury, or was it his stats from 2002 when he was playing through inury? Maybe it was from 2001 - when, guess what - he was playing through injury.

How does the reward not seem special to you. Do you or dont you agree he was the #2 SS last yr - even though he missed almost 100 ABs. Getting the #2 SS after the 7th rd seems pretty damn special if you ask me.

Put the stats down LBJ - they wont help you here - the risk is his health - if healthy he blows your projections out of the water - just like last yr.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:49 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:As for Infante - he is not batting leadoff, he is in the 9 spot. I think because of that projecting him for more than 70 RBIs or 70 Rs is optimistic. He is however a lock for 20 HRs and 15 SBs. He should also bat .275 or higher this yr. Basically, every aspect of Infante's game is improving right now - from power, to discipline, to baserunning, to defense - he's very young, so this shouldnt be a big suprise to anyone.

I love Infante as a bench player this yr for fantasy purposes, but I wouldnt sleep well if he was my starter. In the future he will be an all star, but right now he is still very young.


CM, disregarding hometown loyalty and for this year only, would you take him over Womack in a 5 x 5 roto league?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:01 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:As for Infante - he is not batting leadoff, he is in the 9 spot. I think because of that projecting him for more than 70 RBIs or 70 Rs is optimistic. He is however a lock for 20 HRs and 15 SBs. He should also bat .275 or higher this yr. Basically, every aspect of Infante's game is improving right now - from power, to discipline, to baserunning, to defense - he's very young, so this shouldnt be a big suprise to anyone.

I love Infante as a bench player this yr for fantasy purposes, but I wouldnt sleep well if he was my starter. In the future he will be an all star, but right now he is still very young.


CM, disregarding hometown loyalty and for this year only, would you take him over Womack in a 5 x 5 roto league?


tough tough call - Id probably take Womack because of his Rs and SBs - two of the more underrated stats in 5x5. It really is a toughr call than I thought originally though - with Womack he really doesnt help you in two cats - HRs and RBIs. With Infante at least he will put up solid but not spectacular numbers in all 5 cats, while Womack will put up very good numbers in 2 or 3 cats while punting two. It really depends on your needs.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:03 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:When healthy he's a .290 hitter with 20 HR power. Even healthy for a whole season I'd take Tejada, Jeter, Rollins, Furcal, Cabrera, Nomar, and Young over him at SS. But a guy whose had an injury riddled career, with 3 good months to speak of when he's 30 years old... it just doesn't seem too appealing. I'd like to see him healthy for a year and don't doubt he could go .290-20-20 in a full season, but I'll believe that when I see it. The risk is too high for a reward that just doesn't seem that special to me.


See - you are still extrapolating out your projections from when he was injured. How can you say when healthy he's a .290 hitter??? Clearly, the last time he was healthy was last yr and he hit .319. What are you using to come up with .290 - his stats from 2003, when he was playing through injury, or was it his stats from 2002 when he was playing through inury? Maybe it was from 2001 - when, guess what - he was playing through injury.

How does the reward not seem special to you. Do you or dont you agree he was the #2 SS last yr - even though he missed almost 100 ABs. Getting the #2 SS after the 7th rd seems pretty damn special if you ask me.

Put the stats down LBJ - they wont help you here - the risk is his health - if healthy he blows your projections out of the water - just like last yr.


He had a .351 hit rate last year... that is not normal. 300 is normal. Even with his career .309 hit rate his BA last year was .285 which would by far have been the best he's ever posted. If I had him I'd be very happy with anything over .290.
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Postby NZF » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:13 pm

I value your opinion, thanks for that.

I agree, it depends on your needs. SB's against HR's. I just feel Rey Sanchez may end up playing a little bit at 2B as well for the Yankees, therefore eating into Womack's AB's. I also don't see Womack stealing as much from the 9 hole or hitting anything like .307 again.
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Postby wkelly91 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:17 pm

LBJackal wrote:Infante had a luck-neutral .255 BA last year, along with a sparkling .309 OBA. If he bats leadoff, the Tigers couldn't try harder to lose. This is a guy who has never been good. Last year was not good. 16 HR were a fluke, his SLG was far above anything he's ever done in the minors or majors. More than 100 points higher than his minor league SLG. That won't repeat. He's a bad hitter, a very bad hitter, without power, and with the ability to steal maybe 15 bases while being caught far too often. Not even CLOSE to being as good as Cabrera.

Cabrera's BA will be a good 30+ points higher, he'll have more HR, he'll have more R, he'll have more RBI, he'll have more SB, he'll be better all around. Much better all around. Yeah Infante's young, but so are hundreds of minor leagues. That doesn't mean he'll be good one day.


In the interest of truth....Infante has shown some of last years abilities in the minors. LBJ is correct about the lack of Homeruns in the minors as he never hit more than four, yet he was only 23 last year. How many players are fully developed hitters at 23? There are numerous examples of players who developed power several years into their MLB career as their High School bodies fill out.

In 2001 at age 20:

540-AB 86-R 163-H 21-2B 4-3B 2-HR 62-RBI 27-SB .302-BA .355-OBP .367-SLG .721-OPS

In 2004 at age 23:

503-AB 69-R 133-H 16-HR 55-RBI 13-SB .264-BA .317-OBP .449-SLG .763-OPS

Not radically different. He will have a "breakout" season this year...but not in the sense that he will be a top ten 2b. Yet he will be available late, late in the draft which will make him a bargain in my book.

My Prediction:

.285-85-18-75 20-sb ;-D
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Postby dkakridas » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:37 pm

Thank you Cornbread, WKelly and all the other savvy Infante supporters...

Your insight has led me to keep Infante over Rocco and others and secure a starting infield of:

1B Tex
2B Infante
SS Young
3B Figgins

I like that core going forward for 5 balanced categories and both Figgy and Infante can play all over the field.

I expect great things.

Thanks again!
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