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Omar Infante - does he breakout this year?

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:14 am

Infante had a luck-neutral .255 BA last year, along with a sparkling .309 OBA. If he bats leadoff, the Tigers couldn't try harder to lose. This is a guy who has never been good. Last year was not good. 16 HR were a fluke, his SLG was far above anything he's ever done in the minors or majors. More than 100 points higher than his minor league SLG. That won't repeat. He's a bad hitter, a very bad hitter, without power, and with the ability to steal maybe 15 bases while being caught far too often. Not even CLOSE to being as good as Cabrera.

Cabrera's BA will be a good 30+ points higher, he'll have more HR, he'll have more R, he'll have more RBI, he'll have more SB, he'll be better all around. Much better all around. Yeah Infante's young, but so are hundreds of minor leagues. That doesn't mean he'll be good one day.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:17 am

dude, but the at bat music...

it's this crazy latin explosion of goodness
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Postby crapshooter » Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:56 am

I don't know if I'd predict 'breakout'....but I do think he'll have a very solid season in all categories except batting average. I don't see him hitting over .260
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 10:51 am

You know Jackal - Ive noticed your infatuation with Cabrera - and it truly baffles me. How are you going to say Cabreras BA is going to be 30 points higher than Infante's when they were literally identical last yr: .264. Who would you think has the best chance of improving - the guy who is 30 or the 23 yo? Im not gonna say to take Infante over Cabrera, but in our draft you took Cabrera over Guillen, and to me thats laughable - its not even close. For whatever reason, Cabrera is your boy this year - good luck with that.

As for Infante - he is not batting leadoff, he is in the 9 spot. I think because of that projecting him for more than 70 RBIs or 70 Rs is optimistic. At some point he may be moved to bat leadoff if Sanchez falters badly or gets injured - Infante is the next in line to bat leadoff if Sanchez goes down. He is however a lock for 20 HRs and 15 SBs. He should also bat .275 or higher this yr. His low BA scares people away, but Infante was extremely young the last 2 years, and he has always been considered a contact hitter. Toward the end of last yr he rededicated himself to be more disciplined at the plate - we will see if it worked soon enough. I know winterball isnt much to place any insight into, but he did have an OBP well over .400 for the season. Basically, every aspect of Infante's game is improving right now - from power, to discipline, to baserunning, to defense - he's very young, so this shouldnt be a big suprise to anyone.

I love Infante as a bench player this yr for fantasy purposes, but I wouldnt sleep well if he was my starter. In the future he will be an all star, but right now he is still very young.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:51 pm

I expect .290 from Cabrera, and anything above .260 from Infante would surprise me.

And Guillen's strong suit - his BA - was a fluke with a .351 hit rate. Given his career hit rate of .309 his BA should have been .285 not .318. And moving from Safeco where he never once had a SLG above 400 in 3 full seasons, to Comerica - a park that hurts SLG - and having an SLG of .542 does not make me think "breakout". It's not as if he's a young guy, he's 30. Looking at the splits, April, August, and September were pretty much normal for him at an 800 OPS, but he had 3 consecutive hot months in between with an OPS of about 1000. Just seems too flukish to me. He could be close to Cabrera in value at the end of the year, we'll see. They should be close all around, with Guillen having 20 more RBI and Cabrera having 10 more SB's. Not a huge difference, but enough for me to take Cabrera over him. And if he moved up in the order, Cabrera could post even better numbers than I project.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:55 pm

LBJackal wrote:I expect .290 from Cabrera, and anything above .260 from Infante would surprise me.

And Guillen's strong suit - his BA - was a fluke with a .351 hit rate. Given his career hit rate of .309 his BA should have been .285 not .318. And moving from Safeco where he never once had a SLG above 400 in 3 full seasons, to Comerica - a park that hurts SLG - and having an SLG of .542 does not make me think "breakout". It's not as if he's a young guy, he's 30. Looking at the splits, April, August, and September were pretty much normal for him at an 800 OPS, but he had 3 consecutive hot months in between with an OPS of about 1000. Just seems too flukish to me. He could be close to Cabrera in value at the end of the year, we'll see. They should be close all around, with Guillen having 20 more RBI and Cabrera having 10 more SB's. Not a huge difference, but enough for me to take Cabrera over him. And if he moved up in the order, Cabrera could post even better numbers than I project.


so how does Guillen's injuries he played through in SEA affect those numbers LBJ?
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:06 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
LBJackal wrote:I expect .290 from Cabrera, and anything above .260 from Infante would surprise me.

And Guillen's strong suit - his BA - was a fluke with a .351 hit rate. Given his career hit rate of .309 his BA should have been .285 not .318. And moving from Safeco where he never once had a SLG above 400 in 3 full seasons, to Comerica - a park that hurts SLG - and having an SLG of .542 does not make me think "breakout". It's not as if he's a young guy, he's 30. Looking at the splits, April, August, and September were pretty much normal for him at an 800 OPS, but he had 3 consecutive hot months in between with an OPS of about 1000. Just seems too flukish to me. He could be close to Cabrera in value at the end of the year, we'll see. They should be close all around, with Guillen having 20 more RBI and Cabrera having 10 more SB's. Not a huge difference, but enough for me to take Cabrera over him. And if he moved up in the order, Cabrera could post even better numbers than I project.


so how does Guillen's injuries he played through in SEA affect those numbers LBJ?


He played through injuries for 400 games in Seattle? Hmm good to know, but I'll pass anyway. And speaking of injuries, have you noticed he's missed at minimum a month of every MLB season he's ever had? Yet he's never mentioned as injury prone ????? Maybe once he reaches "star status" :-b people will start to notice he's averaged missing 32 games per season due to injury over the past 4 years.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:23 pm

well, from what I understand, yeah, he was battling inuries for at least the last two years he was in SEA - and he was carrying that injury tag when we traded for him. Like you said - he missed at least a month every yr for the last 3-4 yrs - and last yr was the first time he ever saw over 500 ABs.
The point remains however how sabermetric calculations are good up to a point, but they clearly dont take the intangibles into consideration, and when that happens you are left with half a picture. Was it Guillens injuries that held him back, or was it a lack of skill. :-? Last yr suggested the former - that when healthy his skills are much better than what he showed in SEA. Unfortunately he got hurt again. :-b

The question for me regarding Guillen is his health - not his skill - if he's healthy he is as good as any SS in the league not named Tejada. That was proven last yr as he was the 2nd best SS even though he missed the last month of the season - a pretty remarkable job when you think about it. Anyway - reports suggest the surgery went well and he is running at full speed right now - he'll be playing in games within the week, and shouldnt miss any time this April. We all know the danger of labelling someone an injury risk - its the part of this game that no one on this board has a grasp of unless they are that person's doctor - and I still dont see many doctors running around these hallowed halls.

Skip Guillen if you are concerned with his injuries, not his skill. If healthy he'll produce as good if not better than every other SS outside of Tejada.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:26 pm

I think you guys should have a wager on the matter.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:27 pm

KolbSaves wrote:I think you guys should have a wager on the matter.


I want an injury clause built into the wager. ;-D

DD taught me that little trick. :-b
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