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Does anyone else see scarcity in the Outfield this year?

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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:55 am

KolbSaves wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
Rhino Tuff wrote:3rd base scarcity problems?

A-Rod
Rolen
Beltre
Blaylock
Chavez
Ramirez
Huff
Mora
Wright
Lowell
Glaus
Jones
McPherson
Koskie
Blake
Boone

There are going to be a lot of good 3rd baseman out there this year.

Sencond base is a big problem...


Bolded are the bad 3B... there's about 10 good ones. It doens't matter what your overall numbers are, only how much better you are than others at your position. This makes Lowell a player that is not an ideal 3B. If you have him, you're in rough shape for 3B. And consider that Huff also qualifies at 1B and OF and so you can't bet on somebody using up a 3B spot on him, meaning there's more chance of that owner having 2 guys that qualify at 3B.

If you don't have a top 10 3B, you're gonna take a big hit in value at that position. So yeah, it's scarce.

How is Lowell a "bad" 3b and Jones a good one?


Jones will put up better numbers. Other than BA he was pretty much the same as Lowell last year. And his BA will almost definately be better than Lowell's next year. One year battling injuries and having a BA below .300 and people forget all about Chipper... you'll remember all about him after this season.
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Postby ukrneal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:58 am

I agree. No wait, I disagree. Well, actually both.

I think scarcity is perception most of all. What does it mean to you? People seem to be meaning different things when they talk about it. I agree that there are fewer sure things in the OF than in years past if we consider injuries from last year, realtive depth of other positions, etc.

But I also feel there is plenty of depth in the OF as there are many 2nd and even 3rd tier OF that could put up first tier numbers. Also, as usual, the drop off is much more gradual - I can still draft some great OF numbers in later than the 15th round. Case in point: Geoff Jenkins or Craig Wilson. They should both hit 25+ homers with a .275 average or higher. As a C, SS, or 2b, they'd be gone by 10th round. AS 1b or OF they are often still available quite late into the draft (15th round or later). But this is nothing new. It's always like that.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:01 am

Lowell should score more runs again (he did last year by 18) because the Atlanta Braves lineup continues to hemmorhage people to bat Chipper in. Sorry, Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi aren't doing it for me. As far as homeruns I think they've been pretty comparable the last three years. I just don't see a big difference one way or another, but maybe that's the cutoff line if that's where you have to put it.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:23 am

Lowell played more games, which is why he led by so much in R. Chipper will be close if not better than Lowell in every category, and have a considerably better BA. BA is something not many people pay much attention to, but the difference between the .300+ I expect from Chipper and the .280 I expect from Lowell makes a HUGE difference. About $5 of value, actually. Lowell's entire value will likely be $11.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:32 am

For the record I do have Jones being worth more but Lowell being significantly worth more than the 3b directly below him, Glaus.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:36 am

Glaus is close to Lowell, and I'd probably be indifferent between them, but his BA will kill you and you'll need a .310 hitter to offset his .250 BA. Both of those guys aren't 3B's you want to have as starters in a 12 team league though. After the ones I had non-bolded there's a significant drop to the bolded ones. Well, based on my projections. We all have different projections obviously.
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Postby crapshooter » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:22 am

It just amazes me that anyone can play mixed leagues and complain about postitions being thin. You mean there aren't enough superstars to fill out your entire roster?
You don't have to like 'em to own 'em!!!!
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:42 am

crapshooter wrote:It just amazes me that anyone can play mixed leagues and complain about postitions being thin. You mean there aren't enough superstars to fill out your entire roster?


I don't know if it's 'complaining', it's half the fun, trying to guess WHICH 2nd/ 3rd tier guys might light it up for you. If there are, in fact, only 8 'A' OF, somebody in just about any league will end up w/o one. Which doesn't guarantee that their team will suck, just that they won't have a top OF. I think that there COULD be something in punting OF a bit but I am not mathematically rigorous enough to figure it out. Oh well... :-)
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Postby Manfred » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:55 am

LBJackal wrote:Lowell played more games, which is why he led by so much in R. Chipper will be close if not better than Lowell in every category, and have a considerably better BA. BA is something not many people pay much attention to, but the difference between the .300+ I expect from Chipper and the .280 I expect from Lowell makes a HUGE difference. About $5 of value, actually. Lowell's entire value will likely be $11.


3 yr average stats
Lowell 84 runs, 94 rbi, 28 hr, .282avg
Jones 87 runs, 101 rbi, 28 hr, .295

And, It is worth mentioning that Lowell's avergae is trending upwards, while chippers is trending down. Maybe he isn;t as bad as his .250 last year, but he is still trending down.

I don't know much about calcualting $ values form stats, but they look pretty similar to me
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Postby williesd » Thu Mar 10, 2005 10:57 am

I think you should look at OF's is hitter parks...for example

Hidalgo
Mench
Nix
Holliday
Lane
Burrell

I would be happy with 5 of these 6. ;-D
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