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Does anyone else see scarcity in the Outfield this year?

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:13 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
LBJackal wrote:
New Zealand Fan wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
For me, one of the most scarce positions this yr is SP. 8-o


That surprises me. I actually thought it was the exact opposite but I do agree that 2B and SS are no where near as shallow as many would believe.

Getting No. 1 type guys like Halladay, Mussina, Wood, Clemens, Hudson, Mulder in like rounds 5-6-7, to me shows there is very good depth.


If Clemens was my ace I'd be very, very worried. But I agree, there are a lot of SP bargains to be had.


If any of those guys were my ace I'd be very worried, my point is they are all capable of putting up Ace numbers, yet they are only No.2's this year.


Well, Im not crazy here - Im actually concerned with SPs about 20-25 SPs out. Basically Im looking at a sizeable drop in talent after the top 2 tiers. Sure, Burnett is a steal in the 7th rd, but the talent dries up real quick right about then. The team with 3 of those guys is in the driver seat pretty easily. Thats the position scarcity Im talkin about - the top couple tiers are much better and have much higher upsides than the 3rd or lower. If I can see that there's only a couple 2B and SSs I want in the first 10 rds, and only for the right price, then Im going after SP pretty heavily this yr.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:16 pm

Rhino Tuff wrote:3rd base scarcity problems?

A-Rod
Rolen
Beltre
Blaylock
Chavez
Ramirez
Huff
Mora
Wright
Lowell
Glaus
Jones
McPherson
Koskie
Blake
Boone

There are going to be a lot of good 3rd baseman out there this year.

Sencond base is a big problem...


Bolded are the bad 3B... there's about 10 good ones. It doens't matter what your overall numbers are, only how much better you are than others at your position. This makes Lowell a player that is not an ideal 3B. If you have him, you're in rough shape for 3B. And consider that Huff also qualifies at 1B and OF and so you can't bet on somebody using up a 3B spot on him, meaning there's more chance of that owner having 2 guys that qualify at 3B.

If you don't have a top 10 3B, you're gonna take a big hit in value at that position. So yeah, it's scarce.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:17 pm

Guillen .300-27-105 in the 12th

Alou .295-39-110 in the 13th

Good luck finding those numbers at other positions that late..
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:50 pm

Lowell : 87 runs, 27 HRs, .292 BA 2004
2003 - 76 runs, 32 HRs, .276 BA 2003 in an injury shortened year

This guy has been steady for the last four years. A-rod is pretty tough to measure against

Glaus is a risk but he is also a high reward individual...

Blake is a young guy and I think he will only do better in that lineup
Blake actually finished ahead of Chavez last year, and I realize that Chavez had some injury problems...

All I'm saying is this I'd rather gamble on Mike Lowell, Troy Glaus, and Casey Blake at 3rd this year than gamble on Preston Wilson, Magglio Ordonez, and Larry Walker in my outfield...
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Postby NZF » Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:57 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Well, Im not crazy here - Im actually concerned with SPs about 20-25 SPs out.


By that stage most teams are only looking for a 3rd starter at best.
Again, guys like Bartolo Colon, Greg Maddux, Javier Vazquez, John Smoltz, Freddy Garcia and Kevin Brown were anchoring rotations a few years ago.
To get Colon, Smoltz and Vazquez as your 3rd starters (all capable of producing Top 10 numbers), to me shows a great deal of depth in the position.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 8:43 pm

StlSluggers wrote:I would have agreed with you this morning, but now that Ankiel's an oufielder, the position suddenly looks a lot deeper.

;-7


LMAO!! From all the casualties? "incoming" 8-o !!

I think that there is a bit of a shortage of the first tier of OF as there are about as many as the other positions (I am using Edmonds as the bottom of the 1st tier of OF...but I lump the 'superstars' or 1st round type of guys into the first tier but don't really think that there's that much value to differentiate between the first round and the highest tier...). By my count, I have 8 OF (w/ Edmonds as the bottom of the 1st tier...), 11 1B (Konerko), 7 2B (Boone, this is a stretch, I'm not drafting him, just for accounting purposes...), 6 SS (Nomar), 4 C (Posada, w/ no 'superstar' level performers likely...), 9 SP (C. Zambrano) and 11 RP.

W/ so few top quality OF, the second level of performance DOES have 21 guys (I put Berkman at the bottom but that was maybe in January, before the injury reports improved, I could slide him up to the first tier...) but the first tier is so thin that it does seem like there's a bit of a shortage of OF but, if you 'punt' OF for the first few rounds, you should be able to get a decent crew of 2nd tier OF as the guys who 'punted' IF will be feuding over the middle round IF/ SP/ etc. And, FWIW, the second tier OF guys include a number of guys who should put up bigger #s than their counterparts from the infield.

Just a thought...
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:44 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Well, Im not crazy here - Im actually concerned with SPs about 20-25 SPs out.


By that stage most teams are only looking for a 3rd starter at best.
Again, guys like Bartolo Colon, Greg Maddux, Javier Vazquez, John Smoltz, Freddy Garcia and Kevin Brown were anchoring rotations a few years ago.
To get Colon, Smoltz and Vazquez as your 3rd starters (all capable of producing Top 10 numbers), to me shows a great deal of depth in the position.


I consider Smoltz in that 2nd tier - he's not really falling past the 7th for me anymore either.
Colon, Vaz - again, Id much rather have 3 of the top 20-25 than one of them, I think the dropoff is too big.
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Postby GiantFan666 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:23 am

LBJackal wrote:If Clemens was my ace I'd be very, very worried. But I agree, there are a lot of SP bargains to be had.

why would you be worried about Clemens? all he did last year was win the Cy Young award. he's pitching in his home-town in the NL
as opposed to RJ pitching in the Volcano that is NYC or Schilling who is re-habbing his ankle still and not 100% I know he's not someone
you would grab in the 1st round like a loy of people do w/ Santana
and RJ but the kind of value you get w/ him for where he can be had in the draft is amazing
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Postby agchris02 » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:46 am

The only position i see "REAL" scarcity at is 2b, any other IF postion I can see 8-10 guys that are startable. In the OF there are easily 50 or so I could be happy with. SP as well. RP is perhaps deeper this year than it has been in a LONG time.

The most interesting thing about this coming season is the chance for the huge number of "bounce back" players. There are a ton of Mark Prior like players out there who could be ace's again, or batters who could be huge, that just arent being drafted in the first 4 rounds or so.

I think league winners are going to come from the people who took the biggest risks in the middle rounds and get payoffs. Taking only proven people this season is probably not a winning strategy like it normally is.
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Postby KolbSaves » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:52 am

LBJackal wrote:
Rhino Tuff wrote:3rd base scarcity problems?

A-Rod
Rolen
Beltre
Blaylock
Chavez
Ramirez
Huff
Mora
Wright
Lowell
Glaus
Jones
McPherson
Koskie
Blake
Boone

There are going to be a lot of good 3rd baseman out there this year.

Sencond base is a big problem...


Bolded are the bad 3B... there's about 10 good ones. It doens't matter what your overall numbers are, only how much better you are than others at your position. This makes Lowell a player that is not an ideal 3B. If you have him, you're in rough shape for 3B. And consider that Huff also qualifies at 1B and OF and so you can't bet on somebody using up a 3B spot on him, meaning there's more chance of that owner having 2 guys that qualify at 3B.

If you don't have a top 10 3B, you're gonna take a big hit in value at that position. So yeah, it's scarce.

How is Lowell a "bad" 3b and Jones a good one?
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