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Does anyone else see scarcity in the Outfield this year?

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Does anyone else see scarcity in the Outfield this year?

Postby Rhino Tuff » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:10 pm

I'm a believer in the position scarcity philosophy, normally I like to get my SS and 2nd baseman within the first 4 rounds. This year I think Outfield is a scarce position, let me explain.

I think the top tier is very shallow this year. I know it is irrational but I stay away from players that scare me, just my personal bias. I will not take Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, or Gary Sheffield. I'm willing to lose out on their performances for my piece of mind. Same holds true for Jim Edmonds.

I know I'll get criticized on this board but this is my philosophy and it has worked for me in the past. That being said 3rd base, SS, and 1st are signifigantly deeper than the outfield this year. Who do people think will perform at that top level?

I have the 3rd pick in the draft so I am intending on selecting either
Vlad or Beltan whoever falls to me, hopefully they both aren't gone. But here is how I see the OF rankings...

1)Beltran
2)Vlad
3)Abreu
4)Manny
5)Ichiro
6)Crawford
7)Cabrera
8)Matsui
9)Dunn
10)Lee

Not too deep...
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Postby Q » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:17 pm

Maybe there just arent as many elite players as there have been in years past but I definately do no think that outfield is scarce at all.

Here's my list..

Carlos Beltran
Vladimir Guerrero
Barry Bonds
Bobby Abreu
Manny Ramirez
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford
Jim Edmonds
Miguel Cabrera
Gary Sheffield
Juan Pierre
Adam Dunn
Carlos Lee
Corey Patterson
Magglio Ordonez
J.D. Drew
Sammy Sosa
Vernon Wells
Johnny Damon
Jason Bay
Steve Finley
Aaron Rowand
Lew Ford
Hideki Matsui
Scott Podsednik
Shawn Green
Garrett Anderson
Andruw Jones
Brian Giles
Jose Guillen
Coco Crisp
Moises Alou
Preston Wilson
Trot Nixon
Lance Berkman

There are 35 players tha can all contribute very nicely to your fantasy team. If you divide that by 3 for the number of outfield postions then that is about 12 deep, which is still better than any other position.

The reason you dont think OF is as plentiful this year may be because of how much deeper 1B and 3B are than Usual.

First Base...

Albert Pujols
Todd Helton
Mark Teixeira
Jim Thome
David Ortiz
Derrek Lee
Carlos Delgado
Richie Sexson
Paul Konerko
Justin Morneau
Jeff Bagwell
Travis Hafner

3rd Base...

Alex Rodriguez
Adrian Beltre
Aramis Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Melvin Mora
Aubrey Huff
Chipper Jones
Eric Chavez
David Wright
Hank Blalock
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Postby swyck » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:28 pm

I agree, especially since you need at least 3 to start. I think there is a fine second tier where I'd include:

Edmonds
Alou
Drew
Burnitz
Dunn
Berkman

I'm seeing Edmonds go pretty far down in some mocks, so Im thinking he could be a good pickup around 4-5. He's been pretty steady IMO. Are you expecting a fadeout, or are those missed games an issue?
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:31 pm

Looking at your list I can see your point, but if you look closer at it there are more question marks on that list than ever before...

I have already talked about my irrational fears surrounding Bonds, Sheff, and Edmonds, but here are some very tangilbe fears regarding some of the players on your list (by the way I hope that isn't your personal ranking, Matsui is way too low...)

Magglio - How will he respond to his major injury? :-?
Garrett Anderson - Same thing
J.D. Drew - One year wonder moving into Dodger Stadium? Plus there is already worries about his knees?
Jason Bay - just went down with a wrist injury
Coco Crisp- Will he keep it up?
Preston Wilson - He's not necessarily a bounce back candidate
Trot Nixon - Maybe in a platoon situation
Lance Berkman - Out at least the first month of the season

:~( :~(
:-o
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:34 pm

I like Edmonds, I just think he is playing on borrowed time, from his stats he belongs on the cusp of the elite, but he has never been an overly healthy player.

I'll also caution you on Burnitz, his numbers will take a percipitous dropoff leaving Colorado and he has traditionally been a .250 hitter...
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Postby Q » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:41 pm

Well this is correct, there are a lot of question marks but there are every year. I would say that last year a lot of top guys started to fall off and that is why this question is being asked.

Guys that dropped off...
Sammy Sosa
Shawn Green
Brian Giles
Bernie Williams

Guys that have been knocked down because of injury...
Magglio Ordonez
Vernon Wells
Garrett Anderson
Ken Griffey Jr
Preston Wilson
Lance Berkman
Luis Gonzalez

There are a lot of top names there that are all question marks now.
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Postby Rhino Tuff » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:49 pm

From the players that have dropped off I see bounce backs from

Sammy Sosa - He should be much better away from Chicago and into Camden

Vernon Wells - He is being far undervalued this year

Shawn Green - Happy to be out of Dodger blue

Brian Giles - Contract Year

Lance Berkman - Should come back healthy...

The rest I worry about...
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:51 pm

In a standard league with 3 OFers and 1 util spot...I don't think you can say there is any sort of OF scarcity.

Maybe in leagues with 4 OF spots, or 2 util spots, but I still think it's pushing it. You can always pick up the relatively unknown guys like Eric Byrnes who give you close to 20/20 in the later rounds.
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Postby The Thrill » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:55 pm

slomo007 wrote:In a standard league with 3 OFers and 1 util spot...I don't think you can say there is any sort of OF scarcity.

Maybe in leagues with 4 OF spots, or 2 util spots, but I still think it's pushing it. You can always pick up the relatively unknown guys like Eric Byrnes who give you close to 20/20 in the later rounds.


I agree. It depends upon the league setup, but in general, I don't see scarcity at that position. :-°
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 09, 2005 1:01 pm

Rhino, I think we disagree on almost everything - from your position scarcity theory, to your injury risks, to your bounce back players - almost every single one I disagree with.

Its nice to know that there is a wide range of opinion at the cafe.

For me, one of the most scarce positions this yr is SP. 8-o
2B and SS are very deep - deeper than they have been in yrs.
I guess we all have opinions. ;-D
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