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Why Bonderman?

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Why Bonderman?

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 09, 2005 10:52 am

Looking at draft and auction results I'm amazed at how high Bonderman is going.

Our Cafe rankers have him down at 51 where he should be but in the drafts and auctions he has been going in the 10th round and earlier and for around $10 - about the same as much better pitchers like Radke, Carpenter and Buehrle. Way too high for Bonderman.

Everyone is going on about his second half where he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 BAA. But look at his game log. He had 3 games in a row where he went for fewer than 2 IP. After that he had a few great games to close out the season but those games were against Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the White Sox.

Even with those few good games he still ended the year with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

Playing for a team out of the running and beating some other bad teams who were also out of the running at the end of the year doesn't make him a value pick. He is good for strike outs but I just don't see why he is tagged as such a sleeper.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:00 am

His poise/ age ratio is supposed to be very good and he is projected to improve this year, despite the game log. Good tip on the game log though. I didn't get him until the 16th round so I am ok w/ him at that point in the draft.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:24 am

Mookie - I agree with you for the most part. 8-o

He is a very good young SP, but he's been touted by many "experts" as the sleeper du jour this offseason, and at this point he regularly goes too early in most drafts. I can see taking a chance on him as your #5 SP, but drafting him as your #3 - which is where he usually goes - is asking for trouble.

He still is very young - 22yo - he turns 23 in OCT of this yr. This will be his 3rd full season at the ML level. Most people in the organization think he has very good upside, but not nearly as high as some of the guys coming through the farm within the next couple years. Id say a good #2 SP is where he maxes out.

His K/9 increased pretty dramatically last yr, which is a good sign, but there are just too many times where he got shelled. If he can pitch with any kind of consistancy, then I would be more willing to look at him, but beating up on TB and KC in September really isnt gonna make me jump out of my chair.

Basically, yes, he has shown flashes of being a very good player, but thats about it. He's still very very young, makes mental mistakes, isnt polished, and his stuff really isnt dominate like some of the other high upside youngsters. Id much rather have Greinke for instance.

For a keeper league his value obviously increases, but for this yr:
200 IP - 15 Ws - 4.25 ERA - 1.28 WHIP - 175 Ks.

Personally I need better %s out of my staters.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:33 am

is the 16th round too early for Bonderman?? I thought it seemed about right for a 4.00ish ERA guy who would win some games and get a bunch of Ks but now I'm uneasy and could put him on my 'drop list' when guys start to break out a bit. Grienke was already gone by then so he was not an option but W for Royals may be few and far between anyway...hmmmm
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:38 am

AcidRock23 wrote:is the 16th round too early for Bonderman?? I thought it seemed about right for a 4.00ish ERA guy who would win some games and get a bunch of Ks but now I'm uneasy and could put him on my 'drop list' when guys start to break out a bit. Grienke was already gone by then so he was not an option but W for Royals may be few and far between anyway...hmmmm


16th rd is just fine for Bondo.

Ive seen him go much much earlier, and thats what my post was tailored to - guys who are drafting Bondo as their #3 SP.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:38 am

He's too pricey this season. I can see him regressing just as much as I can see him improving.

The tough part about him is that he is learning how to pitch at the highest level for one of the worst teams in the league. That is probably not the most ideal situation to be in and it will probably take him slightly longer for him to develop this way. I honestly think that the Tigers started him too early instead of bringing him along slowly as most teams do with their young prospects.

The second half was very nice and I would have taken a late round flier (actually did in a 15 team league in 04) but I really think he will put it together in 2 to 3 years. Until then, let someone else waste a middle round pick on him. There will be very good stretches followed by some really bad ones.
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Re: Why Bonderman?

Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Mar 09, 2005 11:51 am

Mookie4ever wrote:Looking at draft and auction results I'm amazed at how high Bonderman is going.

Our Cafe rankers have him down at 51 where he should be but in the drafts and auctions he has been going in the 10th round and earlier and for around $10 - about the same as much better pitchers like Radke, Carpenter and Buehrle. Way too high for Bonderman.

Everyone is going on about his second half where he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 BAA. But look at his game log. He had 3 games in a row where he went for fewer than 2 IP. After that he had a few great games to close out the season but those games were against Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the White Sox.


there is a reasonable explanation for those short appearances

Jul 25 - Ejected
Jul 27 - Relief appearance to get in some work due to short outing as a result of ejection
Aug 1 - Left game after 6 batters due to leg injury

of course he did make some brief appearances earlier in the year because he was getting shelled.

i agree he is going higher than i would like. still, i think he is a decent sleeper pick given that he can rack up the k's at a decent rate. i see him making progress this year but how much remains to be seen. i wouldnt take him over guys like carpenter.
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Re: Why Bonderman?

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:03 pm

j_d_mcnugent wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Looking at draft and auction results I'm amazed at how high Bonderman is going.

Our Cafe rankers have him down at 51 where he should be but in the drafts and auctions he has been going in the 10th round and earlier and for around $10 - about the same as much better pitchers like Radke, Carpenter and Buehrle. Way too high for Bonderman.

Everyone is going on about his second half where he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 BAA. But look at his game log. He had 3 games in a row where he went for fewer than 2 IP. After that he had a few great games to close out the season but those games were against Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the White Sox.


there is a reasonable explanation for those short appearances

Jul 25 - Ejected
Jul 27 - Relief appearance to get in some work due to short outing as a result of ejection
Aug 1 - Left game after 6 batters due to leg injury

of course he did make some brief appearances earlier in the year because he was getting shelled.

i agree he is going higher than i would like. still, i think he is a decent sleeper pick given that he can rack up the k's at a decent rate. i see him making progress this year but how much remains to be seen. i wouldnt take him over guys like carpenter.


ok

But my point was that his good ratios in the second half can be partially explained by his pitching against weaker teams and his pitching fewer innings. The fewer innings are explained by the short outings. I never suggested that he got shelled or injured - just that he pitched fewer innings.
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:35 pm

Since when are away games at Cleveland, Chicago, and Baltimore easy?

Holding those teams below 4 ERs is a decent accomplishment to be honest....particularly the White Sox, at US Cellular.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 09, 2005 12:43 pm

slomo007 wrote:Since when are away games at Cleveland, Chicago, and Baltimore easy?

Holding those teams below 4 ERs is a decent accomplishment to be honest....particularly the White Sox, at US Cellular.


The game in Chicago he actually gave up 6 runs in 6 IP. He was good against them in Detroit.

The only away games where he was any good were the 2 against Tampa Bay. He just plowed through MArtinez, Cummings, Cruz, Cabtu and Fordyce :-b
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