Mookie - I agree with you for the most part.
He is a very good young SP, but he's been touted by many "experts" as the sleeper du jour this offseason, and at this point he regularly goes too early in most drafts. I can see taking a chance on him as your #5 SP, but drafting him as your #3 - which is where he usually goes - is asking for trouble.
He still is very young - 22yo - he turns 23 in OCT of this yr. This will be his 3rd full season at the ML level. Most people in the organization think he has very good upside, but not nearly as high as some of the guys coming through the farm within the next couple years. Id say a good #2 SP is where he maxes out.
His K/9 increased pretty dramatically last yr, which is a good sign, but there are just too many times where he got shelled. If he can pitch with any kind of consistancy, then I would be more willing to look at him, but beating up on TB and KC in September really isnt gonna make me jump out of my chair.
Basically, yes, he has shown flashes of being a very good player, but thats about it. He's still very very young, makes mental mistakes, isnt polished, and his stuff really isnt dominate like some of the other high upside youngsters. Id much rather have Greinke for instance.
For a keeper league his value obviously increases, but for this yr:
200 IP - 15 Ws - 4.25 ERA - 1.28 WHIP - 175 Ks.
Personally I need better %s out of my staters.