Cafe' consensus: Berkman buy low? Juan Gone sell high?

[msaint]

Just wanted to guage the feeling here at the ol' cafe on these two guys.

1) Is Berkman's elbow scaring people away from trying to acquire him even relatively cheaply? Or would you get him now before he heats up?

2) Is Juan Gone's sizzling start enough to make people stick with him through any potential injuries which, knock on wood, he won't have (I own him now)...or should Juan Gone owners be shopping him to get a killer offer while his value is higher than ever?

[zaktansky]

Berkman's a tough call. He's mostly untested when you look at his history in the league -- meaning that it is hard to feel out how he will bounce back. Houston's lineup will continue to heat up as the season wears on, and he has the atmosphere to regain his stature, but I would be a little hesitant to pull a deal for him unless you get him pretty cheap and have room for him to sit for a little bit until he shows some consistency.

Gonzalez HAS been around long enough for us all to see patterns and trends, and he is definitely one of the biggest sell-high candidates out there. I don't realistically think he will keep injury free for any period of time this season and there's no way he can keep up at this pace. You can probably get a pretty decent stud for him in some sort of trade to help your roster out somewhere.

[mister yagoo]

both good questions, but here's where i would weigh in:

1) grab berkman

2) assume 130 games from igor

is this a juan gone for berkman type of question? if so, i think that would be a fair deal, considering we all know what igor can do and berkman's elbow is something that definitely hurts his value some. nagging injuries result in things like unit going under the knife.

[msaint]

No, I'm not trying to circumvent the "no trade posts in the Fantasy Talk forum" request from the moderators ....

I own Juan Gone now, but wouldn't be dealing him directly for Berkman, so this isn't a specific trade question. I'm just trying to get an overall feel for how you guys see their respective values. I'm leaning toward seeing if I can get a total stud, or two near-studs for Juan, as his injury history speaks for itself. BUT, I can't shake the feeling that this contract year thing plays a big part because he always seems to stay miraculously healthy when the big $$ is on the line.

Whether or not to take a chance on Berkman is another story....

Thanks for the replies so far.....

[MookieNJ]

I'm leaning toward seeing if I can get a total stud, or two near-studs for Juan, as his injury history speaks for itself. BUT, I can't shake the feeling that this contract year thing plays a big part because he always seems to stay miraculously healthy when the big $$ is on the line.

I'm in the same situation as you. I was offering JuanGone around quite a bit with no takers, and now he's gone off and is leading the AL in home runs. The last time the big bucks were on the line he had a healthy monster season in Cleveland. I can't help but think that despite the injury risk, he will have another monster season this year.

I'll probably shop him, but I'll expect to get something big in return for a healthy and productive JuanGone, rather than the injury risk JuanGone. I'd rather take the risk myself unless I get something really nice in return.