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Teixeira is on pace to be too good.

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Blalock fans

Postby hollywoodswingin » Fri Mar 04, 2005 5:33 pm

he's gotta learn to hit away from home.

he's gotta put together a whole season.

great player, but i wouldn't expect it all from him yet. too inconsistent.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Fri Mar 04, 2005 6:12 pm

Hype is something that isnt real. Tex is all real.
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Postby Par66 » Sat Mar 05, 2005 12:13 am

How come Hafner isn't in the Cafe Cheat Sheets? He's 1B eligible, no? Where would you put him in that list of players?
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Postby fantasyfiend » Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:12 am

Teix was a huge minor league prospect who absolutely destroyed every professional level he's played in. In his rookie season he was a few HR and RBI away from 30/100. He's still on the upward swing of the aging curve. I take him in the top 25 for his upside alone.

he's a lock for 280+ 35+ 100+ with a ceiling we dont know how high. And plays in one of the most favorable parks for runs in the majors.

Players peak between 26-28.

Hafner's 27 with almost half of his major league AB's hitting .250

To even compare the two is ridiculous.
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Postby wkelly91 » Sat Mar 05, 2005 1:49 am

Hafner:

27-2004 CLE 482 96 150 28 109 68 3 0.3112 0.4101 0.5830
26-2003 CLE 291 35 74 14 40 22 2 0.2543 0.3272 0.4845
25-2002 TEX 62 6 15 1 6 8 0 0.2419 0.3286 0.3871

Teixiera:

24-2004 TEX 545 101 153 38 112 68 4 0.2807 0.3696 0.5596
23-2003 TEX 529 66 137 26 84 44 1 0.2590 0.3311 0.4802

Teixiera is enering his third full year....he will bust out big. He has produced far more than Hafner at this point in his career, he has far more upside than Hafner.

Comparisons:

Helton:

24-1997 COL 93 13 26 5 11 8 0 0.2796 0.3366 0.4839

Bonds:

24-1988 PIT 538 97 152 24 58 72 17 0.2825 0.3681 0.4907
23-1987 PIT 551 99 144 25 59 54 32 0.2613 0.3290 0.4918
22-1986 PIT 413 72 92 16 48 65 36 0.2228 0.3299 0.4165

M.Ramirez:

24-1996 CLE 550 94 170 33 112 85 8 0.3091 0.3988 0.5818
23-1995 CLE 484 85 149 31 107 75 6 0.3079 0.4025 0.5579
22-1994 CLE 290 51 78 17 60 42 4 0.2690 0.3571 0.5207
21-1993 CLE 53 5 9 2 5 2 0 0.1698 0.2000 0.3019

Thome:

24-1994 CLE 321 58 86 20 52 46 3 0.2679 0.3587 0.5234
23-1993 CLE 154 28 41 7 22 29 2 0.2662 0.3854 0.4740
22-1992 CLE 117 8 24 2 12 10 2 0.2051 0.2748 0.2991
21-1991 CLE 98 7 25 1 9 5 1 0.2551 0.2981 0.3673

Look at Teixiera's production at the age and stage of his career compared to these great players....he exceed's most of them. Players who break in early tend to have higher ceilings and careers last longer.

Tex is the real deal ;-D
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Re: Blalock fans

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 05, 2005 3:52 am

hollywoodswingin wrote:he's gotta learn to hit away from home.

he's gotta put together a whole season.

great player, but i wouldn't expect it all from him yet. too inconsistent.


Tex on road
264 20 hrs 48 rbis

1st half 275 18 hrs 48 rbis
2nd half 286 20 hrs 64 rbis

Inconsistent? Nah. Tex is a stud. Anyone who doubts this, you have been warned. He did this at age 24. Here is Tex rankings in AL

5th in hrs
5th in hr/ab
6th in slugging %
7th in rbis
lead AL 1b in hrs and rbis

Tex did this at 24 and hurt. He pulled his left oblique muscle in April. Didn't really get it going till June. In the AL, Tex lead the league in hrs after June 1st, and was 2nd in rbis. Talent wise, he's not overrated, overhyped at all. He's a future mvp.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 05, 2005 6:49 am

Plus, he's a Gael, just like me (and Gavin Floyd)

http://www.msjnet.edu/.
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Postby Drdobs » Sat Mar 05, 2005 9:07 am

Secret Avatar wrote:I like Tex as much as the next guy, but I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and come back to reality. The hype, hopes, and dreams have far exceeded any semblence of reality. Let's look at the actual numbers.

Tex posted 281-101-38-112 last year. Good numbers, to be sure, but nothing spectacular for a slugger. He was ranked 44th overall last year in espn's 5x5. (Note that this refers to ACTUAL RANKINGS for 2004, based on actual 2004 numbers, using the same 5x5 calculus that determined their fantasy value last year on a given team. These are not projections.) Barely ahead of Rollins. Yahoo had him ranked 50-something in 5x5. In fact, Tex was not even in the top 3 1Bs last year. Pujols, Helton, and Ortiz were considerably ahead of him, and he was not far ahead of Hafner and Sean Casey. Some other big sluggers at 1B, such as Delgado, were injured or had down years last year, or Tex might not have even been in the top 5 at 1B.

Let's put down the hype bong and look at Tex's numbers from 2004. He batted only 300 or more twice in 6 months. He batted 238 or less twice in the same six months (212 in May and 238 in September). Note that he ended the season with the rasberry 238 in September, so all this I hear about a "big slump" at the beginning of the year is misleading. He had a "big slump" at the end of the year too, apparently. So he "slumped" for 3 out of six months? How is that any different than having just 3 good months?

Let's look at his home/away splits. In 2004, he hit 298-18-64-49 at home but only 264-20-48-52 in a few more at-bats on the road. For his career, he's hit 298-37-130-100 in Arlington but an abyssmal 242-27-66-67 on the road. I find it hard to believe he'll improve his BA much beyond 280 with those sort of away numbers.

Let's also look at his HR totals. Other than a huge power spike in a single month (13-30 in July) his HR and RBI totals were considerably more pedestrian. Other than 13-30 in July, he never hit more than 7 in a month, and he hit 2, 3, and 5 HR in three months. So, if you take out that strange spike in power in July, you are left with 32-105 or so. A huge difference.

Please don't tell me he was hurt at the beginning of the year and blah, blah, blah. Injuries are a part of the game, and any time a player supposedly spends two months nursing an injury, that sends up some flags for me. It usually does for every other player as well, but somehow Tex gets a pass. Plus, he posted a pitiful 238 BA in September. Was he hurt then too? If so, I think the term "injury prone" applies. If not, then maybe you have to look at his better months with a little more skepticism.

We also have to look at his performance in 2003, which is much more in line with his so-called "slump" months in 2004 than with his better months.

And finally, to put things further in perspective, let's look at some of the players who finished AHEAD of Tex in 2004. There's Mora (20), Drew (31), Damon (32), Berkman (34), Young (35), and -- believe it or not -- Pavano (26). Where are these guys going in the draft? Drew and Damon will be lucky if they get drafted in the 7th or 8th. Pavano? He's not even in the top 100 in a lot of draft lists. And yet, every single one of them posted better numbers than Tex in 2004.

And Young? He's also very young, plays on the same great line-up as Tex, plays at a MUCH thinner position than Tex, finished considerably ahead of Tex in the rankings last year, and therefor in any rational draft he should be picked much EARLIER than Tex, no? So why then is he falling 2 or 3 rounds deeper into the draft? Why, pray tell? One word: HYPE.

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their own valuation of players. That's what makes fantasy baseball so fun and challenging. Personally, I think Tex is a hot player and expect big things from him. But the hype has exceeded the reality, IMO.


This is really a great post and I couldn't have said it any better myself. I too really like the guy this year but I definately think the guy is being over-drafted and is really quite over-rated. He should be the 4th through 6th 1st baseman taken and be going in the 5th to 6th rounds, not the 2nd and 3rd's he's been moving in.

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Re: Blalock fans

Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat Mar 05, 2005 12:13 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
hollywoodswingin wrote:he's gotta learn to hit away from home.

he's gotta put together a whole season.

great player, but i wouldn't expect it all from him yet. too inconsistent.


Tex on road
264 20 hrs 48 rbis

1st half 275 18 hrs 48 rbis
2nd half 286 20 hrs 64 rbis

Inconsistent? Nah. Tex is a stud. Anyone who doubts this, you have been warned. He did this at age 24. Here is Tex rankings in AL

5th in hrs
5th in hr/ab
6th in slugging %
7th in rbis
lead AL 1b in hrs and rbis

Tex did this at 24 and hurt. He pulled his left oblique muscle in April. Didn't really get it going till June. In the AL, Tex lead the league in hrs after June 1st, and was 2nd in rbis. Talent wise, he's not overrated, overhyped at all. He's a future mvp.

Nice numbers, HOOTIE. Tex is only going to get better as he gets all his AB this year, and as he matures. Hes been improving each year in the majors. He was a monster in the minors and college. Once he reaches his prime, he will probably stroke 40+ at a .300 average. Will it be this year? Maybe. But he should hit 40+ and hit around .290. His runs and RBIs should be excellent this year also. To think he is overhyped just because he is young is folly, I think. He is going to cement his name on the map by the end of this season.
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Postby Fireball Express » Sat Mar 05, 2005 12:59 pm

Maybe I should put this in the "Predictions" Forum but:

Tex will win the AL HR crown.
If the Rangers even get close to a playoff spot, Tex will win AL MVP. 8-o

I know pretty bold predictions, but not impossible.

I recently took Tex at 2:1 in a 12 team league. (I passed on Soriano 8-o , but we'll leave that discussion and criticism for another thread.) There was no way that he would have made it back to me. He's my 3rd rated 1B behind Albert and Helton.
I don't get excited about Hafner. He went in the 4th round, FYI.

Funny part is that I thought I was one of the only guys rating Tex so high. My league mates didn't criticize me for it, just approval. Then I look here and see this discussion. Guess I'm not alone.
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