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GiantsFan14's 2nd Annual Spreadsheet v9 (w/ Draft Tracker!)

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GiantsFan14's 2nd Annual Spreadsheet v9 (w/ Draft Tracker!)

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:26 am

Version 9 (3/14/12):
Version 9 on it's way. Some projections updated, full snake draft tracker implemented that you can adjust for # of teams (only up to 14), auction draft tracker only works for your own team but you can adjust for # of teams, % spent on hitters, and how many hitters your league starts. This won't have an affect on pitcher values yet.

Draft tracker issues:
Players are not sorted by position (this is incredibly hard to do automatically)
Drafted bench players are treated as full value
Pitcher values are not automated yet

If you change any hitter projections, dollar values will automatically update. The changes must be made in the individual position tabs for this to work. Pitcher values are not automated yet.

If you have any questions about how anything works, please let me know. This will probably be my last update as we're getting close to the season, so good luck everyone. I hope I've been able to somewhat fill the void left by the absence of J35J's sheet this year.


Hey guys, I wasn't planning on doing a spreadsheet this year, but I found some free time and after finding out that J35J wasn't doing his I decided I'd give it a go again. I've spent A LOT of time so far, so I'm going to pull a page from J's book and offer it up to anyone willing to send a donation (no minimum).

Donations can be sent to mgmarinakis@gmail.com on PayPal or click here.

If you'd like to get a glimpse at my projections before deciding whether you want them, my 2013 catcher projections are here.

You can also see last years spreadsheet here.

Included in the spreadsheet:
-Projected AL and NL starting position players, starting pitchers, and closers for each team.
-Positional eligibility in both Yahoo and ESPN/CBS.
-Positional rankings which include: 2013 Projections, Stats from 2010-2012, Weighted averages, and ball in play data.
-Auction values based on a 14 team league with C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, 9 P (196 position players, 136 P).
-Player names are linked to their fangraphs page.
-Injury info and some other random notes.
-Tier rankings
-Draft tracker which allows you to input your team as you draft and get instant information about how you are doing based on my projections.

Future plans:
Undervalued and overvalued players in ESPN and Yahoo rankings.

Method:
The backbone of the spreadsheet are three year weighted averages for each player. This includes weighted averages for FB%, HR/FB, BB%, and K%. I also calculated xBABIPs and BABIP data which I used to predict a BABIP for 2013. This information is then used to calculate ABs, HRs, and hits.

PAs, RBIs, runs, and SB are calculated by using the three year weighted average and then each one is adjusted by me to account for injury, playing time, and projected batting order location.

Auction values are calculated by comparing players at each position and are adjusted for some high-end inflation. They are adjusted to give categories that have a higher predictive rate more value. As such HRs are valued the most while SB and BA are valued the least. As always, your own league will dictate draft prices, these are just a guideline for value.

I'm open to any suggestions anyone might have for things to add or ways to improve the sheet. I hope you find it useful!

-Mike
Last edited by GiantsFan14 on Fri Mar 15, 2013 1:25 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby sjguzin » Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:44 am

Looking forward to it, thank you. Donation Sent.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:46 am

I shot ya one, what the hell. brendanhorton@gmail.com. Hopefully you're better at this than movie reviews.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby J35J » Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:55 am

;-D

Will send ya some $$$ later, but good luck with it all, can't wait to see it.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby stevethumb » Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:27 pm

just a little quibble on C projections ...

seems way too high on the ABs of quite a few guys...

career high ABs for rdoumit and mmontero...
bmccann will not get 495 ABs this year due to current injury and i can't see jmontero getting 558 ABs either

and gkottarras has no job and
rmartin is a pirate (does that alter his projection) ?

GEEZ I just looked at your last year C projections....again way over in projected ABs and major misses on so many (napoli, ymolina, posey, hundley, arencibia, cruiz, jbuck, suzuki and many others)
there was no projection for any dodger C
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby Ender » Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:47 pm

there was no projection for any dodger C


Typical Giant fan I guess~.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby Element » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:18 pm

Ender wrote:
there was no projection for any dodger C


Typical Giant fan I guess~.


:-D
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:01 pm

stevethumb wrote:just a little quibble on C projections ...

seems way too high on the ABs of quite a few guys...

career high ABs for rdoumit and mmontero...
bmccann will not get 495 ABs this year due to current injury and i can't see jmontero getting 558 ABs either


I gave a boost to catchers who play multiple positions. They may be a bit high but I don't think it's anything crazy. I may go back and adjust depending on what the mariners do with their catching situation.

and gkottarras has no job and
rmartin is a pirate (does that alter his projection) ?


Forgot that the A's made the trade for Jaso. Still I think Kottaras is good enough that he'll find a job somewhere as a backup catcher. Martin I projected as a Pirate, just missed updating the team name. Thanks.

GEEZ I just looked at your last year C projections....again way over in projected ABs and major misses on so many (napoli, ymolina, posey, hundley, arencibia, cruiz, jbuck, suzuki and many others)
there was no projection for any dodger C


I'd like you to find someone's projections last year that didn't miss on a bunch of those catchers. I just flipped through the 2012 Baseball Forcaster and they missed just as much if not more on a lot of those guys. Projecting is not an exact science, there is just way too much variance in baseball. Napoli got hurt, Molina was coming off a huge breakout year and seemed due for some regression, Posey was coming back from a career threatening injury, etc etc. Catcher is easily the most volatile position and I hardly think it's fair to cherry pick the players I hit the worst on. Looking through the projections myself, I really didn't miss PA projections by very much except on catchers who got injured at some point in the season. Saying that I "way over in projected ABs" is kind of overblowing it.

And yes I didn't project a Dodger catcher, but I don't see how that's relevant for this years spreadsheet. The spreadsheet was free last year.
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby stevethumb » Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:10 pm

and BTW, giantsfan, i have been on this site for a long time and i truly appreciate your thoughts and comments..
your spreadsheet is obviously well thought out and a lot of hard work goes into it..
kudos on putting your opinions out there..
;-D
The C comments on the ABs were meant to be constructive since if you lowered the projected ABs some of the other stats may fall into better alignment
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Re: GiantsFan14's Second Annual Spreadsheet

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:15 pm

stevethumb wrote:and BTW, giantsfan, i have been on this site for a long time and i truly appreciate your thoughts and comments..
your spreadsheet is obviously well thought out and a lot of hard work goes into it..
kudos on putting your opinions out there..
;-D
The C comments on the ABs were meant to be constructive since if you lowered the projected ABs some of the other stats may fall into better alignment


I'll definitely take it into consideration. Thanks.
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