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What's up with WAR these days?

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What's up with WAR these days?

Postby jfg » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:33 am

Zobrist led the league last year and Lawrie is leading this year? Are their defensive abilities really THAT good to offset above average offensive output?
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby cordscords » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:41 am

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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby silverZ » Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:49 am

Great article.

In a brilliant post at BP, Colin Wyers showed the flaw in the amount of runs credited to Lawrie, based on the DRS system. For those who haven't read Wyers work on Lawrie, his main conclusion is that each time Lawrie makes a play between first and second as part of a shift he gets credited with a run saved. The average third baseman doesn't make plays at second base.


This might explain how Lawrie is putting up Beltre type defensive metrics this year.
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:03 am

jfg wrote:Zobrist led the league last year and Lawrie is leading this year? Are their defensive abilities really THAT good to offset above average offensive output?


Yeah, WAR is too flawed for my tastes. Alex Gordon is the second coming of Willie Mays Hayes out there in Left Field. :-D
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:32 am

jfg wrote:Zobrist led the league last year and Lawrie is leading this year? Are their defensive abilities really THAT good to offset above average offensive output?


Where are you seeing that Lawrie is leading the league in WAR? According to fangraphs Lawrie isn't even close to the top. Votto leads the majors with a 5.0 WAR and Lawrie has a 2.7 and there are like 50 guys in between.
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:36 am

And last year fangraphs had Ellsbury leading WAR with a 9.4 and Zobrist was 11th with a 6.9.
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:42 am

He's looking at BaseballReference's WAR
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:46 am

J35J wrote:He's looking at BaseballReference's WAR

Gotcha. Well based on what I'm seeing at fangraphs and what I'm hearing about BaseballReference, I think I would trust fangraphs a little more...and by a little I mean by a mile.
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:47 am

NikkiSixx wrote:
J35J wrote:He's looking at BaseballReference's WAR

Gotcha. Well based on what I'm seeing at fangraphs and what I'm hearing about BaseballReference, I think I would trust fangraphs a little more...and by a little I mean by a mile.


Yeah, they come up with it quite a bit differently. I like fangraphs much more as well but WAR either way is a little off to me...still useful but not as a standalone measure.
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Re: What's up with WAR these days?

Postby kab21 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:10 am

The problem with WAR is that you need a lot more data to get a significant sample. I read 3 yrs somewhere and we're talking about 1/2 a season of stats so far. I also think defense is weighted too highly. I know they have mathematical basis for their formulas but I disagree with the value of awful hitters that are posting 15+ UZR/150 rates. An example is Joe Crede in 2009 (I'm a Twins fan). He hit .225/.289/.414/.703 in 90 games and put up a 1.8 WAR. Over a season that's a 3.5 WAR player that was an awful hitter. I'm sorry but he was awful regardless of his great defense.
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