B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
Top 5 Underrated Hitters Francuer - take a late flier to see if 2nd half numbers in Citi are for real Bruce- needs to get average up, but 35 homer potential that late... Borbon- if he bats leadoff in that lineup I forsee good things Victor Martinez- if he bats 3rd and they keep him fresh by playing him at 1B and DH I think he outperforms his draft spot D Uggla- The average is uggly, but if you get someone to balance that out it can be huge to get power from MI
Top 5 Overrated Hitters Ellsbury- He better steal 60 if you draft him that high Reyes- kept pushing back his comeback date in 2009, whos to say he'll ever be 100% again - plus you have to spend a 2nd rounder on him, not me C Lee- I know everyone is predicting a decline, I just think it will be steeper than most Ibanez- his 2nd half numbers are more like it McCutchen- I like him and have him on my keeper team, but I've seen projections of 20/40 and 30/30? Not sure he gets there in 2010 (hope I'm wrong)
Top 5 Underrated Pichers Bailey- because you can get him late and he coule perform like a mid round pitcher Zito - see above E Jackson- figured it out in the AL (sort of), moving back to the NL, usually that equals success - and he's going late Kershaw- I think he'll be in the top tier of SP this year and give Lincecum a run for the Cy Harden/Sheets/Bedard/Webb- If you can get them at a discount go for it. They will undoubtebly be hurt at some point, but their numbers while they are healthy added to the pitcher you get off waivers' numbers are usually very solid. People always overlook that...
Top 5 Overrated Pitchers Vazquez- Just not the same in the AL, he's proved that over and over Santana- is last years drop a sign of things to come? J Weaver- Just because the team lost pitchers and he is now the ace doesn't mean he got any better, and he's being drafted as such Cain- his sabermetric numbers indicate he's not as good as his numbers say (though he does it every year so who knows) Carpenter- Talk about pitchers being risky, why would you spend such a high pick on a guy this risky. (he's not in the same boat as Harden/Sheets/etc. because he is being drafted based on his 2009 numbers, very unlikely to repeat IMO...
.275-85-20-80-12 for Wells is attainable, but I think it is unlikely to happen. He's on the wrong side of 30 and he was never that good to begin with. Unless you are getting Wells very late, I wouldn't bother because I don't see much upside to the pick. The Jays are rebuilding, Wells has a huge contract to live up to and his numbers have been declining last few years. I'd stay away.
EDIT: And he's a slow starter. I think a better strategy with Wells would be to let someone roster him in the beginning of the season and take a chance on someone with high upside in the draft. If Wells has a good season, fine, he won't likely put big numbers anyway, but if he is struggling and whoever drafted him decides to drop him, then keep and eye on him for June and July.
Captain Furtah wrote:Top 5 Overrated Hitters Reyes- kept pushing back his comeback date in 2009, whos to say he'll ever be 100% again - plus you have to spend a 2nd rounder on him, not me
I won't pass judgment on him until we hear more about his offseason and during ST. There was a reason he was a top-5 pick for several years. If reports from camp all come out glowing, I think I'd actually put him in the underrated category. At this point, however, I agree - I wouldn't take him this early if my draft were held today.
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by garf112 » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:37 pm 
