FBC Community Top 25 OF - #22: Nate McLouth

[The Artful Dodger]

1. Grady Sizemore
2. Ryan Braun
3. Josh Hamilton
4. Matt Holliday
5. Carlos Beltran
6. Alfonso Soriano
7. Carlos Lee
8. Manny Ramirez
9. B.J. Upton
10. Carlos Quentin
11. Nick Markakis
12. Matt Kemp
13. Jason Bay
14. Carl Crawford
15. Vladimir Guerrero
16. Alex Rios
17. Ichiro Suzuki
18. Curtis Granderson
19. Bobby Abreu
20. Magglio Ordonez
21. Jacoby Ellsbury
22. Nate McLouth

[j24jags]

Hart

[kentx12]

Victorino.

[bigh0rt]

Victorino, Hart, Dunn are the next batch of guys who belong here. Very tight on all three, and arguably in any order, but I'll go with the order in which I have them listed.

[Yoda]

Not sure it makes a ton of sense that Maggs is already in there and no Hart.

[ondeckb]

McLouth

[auclairkeithbc]

For me this is between the two most similar players on the list...McLouth and Hart. Both 20/20 guys that are going to be 27 for the 2009 season.

For me, McLouth is the better choice of the two for a couple reasons. First, Hart had a great year in 2007, but fell back a bit in 2008. Was that sophomore slump (technically his 3rd season, but he 2nd with more than 300AB)? It is tough to say. His average took a big hit compared to the .283 he hit in 2006 with 237AB and the .295 he hit in 2007 with 505AB. But he did have a pretty giant BABIP those first two years compared to a very average BABIP in 2008 when he hit .268 with 612AB. Hitters are somewhat able to control their BABIP, but we don't really know how skilled Hart truly is at that. Also Hart's HR rate was down substantially, hitting 4 less HR with over 100 more ABs. He stole 23 bases and was caught 7 times in 2007 and 2008 so that is pretty consistent. Plus he has been merely solid in the R/RBI categories, and I'm not sure there is much evidence that will substantially change in 2009.

McLouth had a pretty nice season in 329AB in 2007 with 13HR and 22SB (1CS) to go with 62R, 38RBI and a .258 avg. Over 600AB that would be 113R, 24HR, 69RBI, 40SB (2CS) and .258 avg. He followed that up with a full season that re-enforced that year, with 113R, 26HR, 94RBI, 23SB (3 CS), and an improved .277 avg despite a 10 point drop in his BABIP. Considering how efficient he is at stealing bases, I could see that total rising in 2009, those the projection systems seem him staying closer to 20SB. So far, he hasn't really given us a reason to doubt him. Will his average ball back to the .265 range? Maybe, but there isn't much reason to think so.

[auclairkeithbc]

Not sure it makes a ton of sense that Maggs is already in there and no Hart.

The 40 extra points of average and 20 extra RBI for Maggs more than makes up the 20 extra SB for Hart. Not really too close for me.

[BitterDodgerFan]

enough hatin', give mclovin his due

[Yoda]

Not sure it makes a ton of sense that Maggs is already in there and no Hart.

The 40 extra points of average and 20 extra RBI for Maggs more than makes up the 20 extra SB for Hart. Not really too close for me.

I guess if you honestly don't believe that Hart, as a 26 yo won't improve and a 35 yo injury prone Maggs will continue to maintain his production. Seems extremely silly to me but oh well.

Not really close? You have Maggs at 20 and advocating for Hart for 22. Even MDP has them 60 and 61. That seems pretty close to me so I'm not really sure what the heck you are talking about.