I think while this is an iteresting study you've done, it isn't really going to affect the way I judge the competency of second year
They either have nasty stuff or they don't...
Webb - has nasty stuff
exploding sinker creates many grounders and many nightmares
Contreras - nasty stuff, plays on a winning team, probably struggled at first more from culture shock and not starting than ability...finished season extremely strong
Harden - has nice fastball...needs to work on offspeed control
Foppert - nice fastball...has difficulty working deep in games
Ainsworth - pretty nasty stuff...needs to work on control and strength
Willis - mediocre fastball, nice arm angles, good against lefties...righties got a read on him after first couple times through league
Horacio - good control...stuff isn't too nasty...however, very steady and consistent performer with a nice pitching coach
Cliff Lee - looks like a promising youngster, but I haven't seen enough of him yet
Jason Davis - not too nasty, doesn't look too promising
Bonderman - plays for Detroit...not as bad as his numbers imply, but still not too productive
Jeriome Robertson - not too nasty...doesn't help to play in Houston
Vargas - only average stuff, despite a strong start to last season
Seo - doesn't have great stuff, but is mentally tough and knows how to pitch (if you ignore a horrendous July, he actually pitched pretty well last year
Jerome Williams - his era would imply he's pretty dominant, but I don't think he has great stuff, only pretty good...playing in pac bell and on a winning team helps too
so after all that, the only three guys from above I'd consider targetting for this years draft are Webb (somewhere between rounds 8 and 10), Contreras (mid to late rounds), and Harden (late rounds). Maybe Willis very late, but he's not going to last that long.
so even if 70% of second year
pitchers actually perform worse, I'm confident enough in my knowledge of baseball to target a few guys I feel will be productive pitchers in 2004. That doesn't necessarily mean they won't have a drop off (i.e. Webb will have a difficulty improving on his era/whip/BAA, but even if those go up slightly he'll have a great year
. Plus I think he'll post 14-16 wins this year
with a better offense around him.)
I enjoyed reading the data you had collected, but I just don't know how applicable it is to improving someones fantasy baseball knowledge.