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Is Prince Fielder overvalued?

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Is Prince Fielder overvalued?

Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 22, 2007 1:37 am

Prince Fielder finished the 2006 season with 82 R, 28 HR, 81 RBI, 7 SB, and a .271 BA. According to Yahoo, that qualified him as the 165th best player overall. Baseball Monster puts him at roughly between 150 and 175 depending on league settings.

This year, Prince is everyone's favorite sleeper. A lot of people (including myself) think he'll make some strides and emerge as a 35-100 guy, with the potential to even surpass that if things really click. However, his Average Draft Position is about 76 overall, which is about 90 spots higher than he should go based on last year's numbers. Obviously, it's silly to draft based on last year's numbers alone, since that only gives you a team that would have won last year. But even so, it seems a little extreme to have that much faith in a guy that you're betting that he'll outproduce last year's value by MORE than 90 spots.

Basically, to me, a sleeper - or really, any guy you draft - should be someone who you think will outproduce the spot that you drafted him at. So while it's certainly not inconceivable for Prince to be better than 76th overall last year, it just seems that taking him that high requires an awful lot of faith that he'll improve A LOT from last year. So basically, I love the guy, but I might just have to wait for Lyle Overbay or Adrian Gonzalez if Prince is going to be going that high.

Thoughts?
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Thu Feb 22, 2007 6:24 am

I think the problem here is classifying Fielder as a sleeper. If his 06 season had been disappointing and he was flying under the radar this off season, think Jeremy Hermida, then he could have been a nice sleeper. However, a rookie who hits 28 homers and will probably improve those numbers will most likely not go unnoticed.

Fielder is a good breakout candidate for this season and that is coming off a good year. If you want Fielder on your team you will likely have to take him on the top 100.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Thu Feb 22, 2007 8:44 am

I wouldn't call him overrated... I'd just say that people know about him, and they (rightly I think) expect big things of him.
The question I have is, is he the next Ryan Howard? I don't think so (his minor league numbers weren't quite as good), but if so, then he'd be a steal at 76.
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Postby Dan Charette » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:24 am

He's over valued in terms of last year's stats. I think those drafting kind of high see a potential power monster. They may remember his father as well. He should improve in his 2nd year. It's not too much of a stretch to project him at 35 homeruns and 100 rbi's.
In keeper leagues his value grows. There's some players who have potential brekout candidate written all over them. He's one of them. His power ceiling is higher than most young players.
In my 12 team league, which had 8 keepers I drafted him early in round 2. Pick # 110 if you count the keepers. I feel I was lucky to get him there. The team drafting before me in round 2 already had 2 first baseman, or else I would have taken him in round 1.
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:36 am

He's a better "hitter" than Howard, he may not have quite as much power though and he doesn't have that park behind him. He's still young(only 22) though so I have no clue what his stats this year will be. I don't think he's really being overrated, he has top 2 round upside and not really any downside as more of a balanced hitter.

Also his minor league numbers are better than Howards. At the same age Fielder put up a .900+ OPS in AAA Howard was putting up an .827 in A ball. You simply have to take age into account when looking at minor league stats. That doesn't mean Fielder is going to be better than Howard but you have to be fair when comparing their minor league stats.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby duckbillgates » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:36 am

Too much depth at 1B to take Fielder that early, in my opinion.

I think people see that frame and expect him to hit 87 homers a year any day now.

He won't be any kind of draft bargain in most leagues.
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Postby Niffoc4 » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:41 am

Ender wrote:He's a better "hitter" than Howard, he may not have quite as much power though and he doesn't have that park behind him. He's still young(only 22) though so I have no clue what his stats this year will be. I don't think he's really being overrated, he has top 2 round upside and not really any downside as more of a balanced hitter.

Also his minor league numbers are better than Howards. At the same age Fielder put up a .900+ OPS in AAA Howard was putting up an .827 in A ball. You simply have to take age into account when looking at minor league stats. That doesn't mean Fielder is going to be better than Howard but you have to be fair when comparing their minor league stats.
you're right, considering age, he could be much better than Howard is now five years from now (when he's Howard's age). But for this year, I don't think his power is at that level. I do like him, but I think in most of my leagues there are others who like him more.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 22, 2007 11:31 am

I don't think Fielder is overvalued in any sense of the word. He did pretty much exactly what he's been expected to do (maybe a touch better). He actually fared pretty well against lefties, a sign that he may develop much faster than we anticipated. I am a bit high on him myself but don't be surprised if he is a top 5 1B by the season's end.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:43 pm

This are all pretty convincing responses. ;-D Saying he was overvalued probably wasn't quite what I meant to say - I guess what I was really trying to say is just that it seems unusual that people have so much faith in the chances of his numbers being much better than they were last year.

Ender wrote:I don't think he's really being overrated, he has top 2 round upside and not really any downside as more of a balanced hitter.


I think that's the other part I was overlooking - he's got a pretty safe floor and a ridiculous ceiling.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:49 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:This are all pretty convincing responses. ;-D Saying he was overvalued probably wasn't quite what I meant to say - I guess what I was really trying to say is just that it seems unusual that people have so much faith in the chances of his numbers being much better than they were last year.

Ender wrote:I don't think he's really being overrated, he has top 2 round upside and not really any downside as more of a balanced hitter.


I think that's the other part I was overlooking - he's got a pretty safe floor and a ridiculous ceiling.


Just look at his track record. He was crushing MiLB at a young age and put up pretty impressive numbers as a rookie at age 22. He has great all around hitting skills and potentially ridiculous power.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... lder.shtml
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