Help with my minor league prospects? WHIR

[NY Knights]

I'm in a deep keeper league (14 owners x 40 man rosters = 560 players, plus DL). To keep a player, you need to give up the draft pick three rounds lower than the round where that player was selected the year before. It's a mixed, 6x6 (OPS and holds) roto league, and each year we keep 8 players. I do my homework and I typically draft well, so my strategy is to try to keep the younger guys and prospects who only cost me picks in the higher rounds (ideally above the 25th or 30th), rather than keep everyday players where I'd have to give up (say) an 8th or a 10th or a 12th pick.

So I have some obvious guys

OF B. Harper (give up 34th pick)
OF Jennings (also 34)
1B Hosmer (33)

and some likely guys

2B/3B Seager (38)
SP Peavy (28)
SP Bumgarner (13)

But I always keep some prospects, and here's where I need help. If you had to rank these next six guys (or just pick the top two or three), who would YOU keep?

SP Skaggs (30)
SP Z.Wheeler (33)
SP C.Martinez (35)
SP J.Turner (24)
3B Arenado (27)
3B Rendon (23)

Many thanks!

[HOOTIE]

Peavy
Bumgarner

Rendon
Arenado

[lane_anasazi2]

I'd keep all 3 of your "likely" MLB players. Those are good values, especially for Seager with the fences coming in next year.

Of your minor league players, I'd definitely want Wheeler at 33. He has frontline starter potential and he'll be up next year. The others have enough questions marks that I could take or leave them. Skaggs/Turner (upside), Martinez (eventual role), Arenado (maturity/production dropoff), Rendon (injury). Of those I would be most interested in Arenado and Rendon.

[Element]

So I have some obvious guys

OF B. Harper (give up 34th pick)
OF Jennings (also 34)
1B Hosmer (33)

and some likely guys

2B/3B Seager (38)
SP Peavy (28)
SP Bumgarner (13)

But I always keep some prospects, and here's where I need help. If you had to rank these next six guys (or just pick the top two or three), who would YOU keep?

SP Skaggs (30)
SP Z.Wheeler (33)
SP C.Martinez (35)
SP J.Turner (24)
3B Arenado (27)
3B Rendon (23)

Many thanks!

The top 6 are easy keeps. The two prospects at the bottom are due to ETA. They're going to help you sooner than the others.

[NY Knights]

Any other opinions?

I'd also be interested to know, if you had to choose, who do you like better, Arenado or Rendon?

[HOOTIE]

Any other opinions?

I'd also be interested to know, if you had to choose, who do you like better, Arenado or Rendon?

Rendon

[trippical]

Rendon won't make the majors for at least 1.5 years. Turner has fallen from being a top prospect.

I'd go Arenado and Wheeler, with Skaggs being a solid alternative.

[NY Knights]

Yes, it's a shame Rendon broke his ankle this year. I think Rendon has the better upside (some complaints about Arenado's maturity this season), but the injury probably set him back an entire year.

This is a great article

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... -prospects

about how roughly 70% of prospects who make Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects bust. One of the conclusions I've increasingly come to is to stick with guys who are close to the majors and can help me next season, over the highly touted 19 or 20 year olds. I just think it's a much better bet.