Keeper league. 12 teams. 5 keepers with a luxury tax for a 6th Scoring includes for hitters: R, H, 1b, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, BB, SB, K, FPCT, AVG, OPS pitchers: IP, W, L, CG, SHO, SV's, H, HR's, BB's, K's , Holds, ERA, WHIP It is a head to head league. 6 teams make the playoffs with 2 byes
Definite 4 Keepers: 1B Pujols 2B Kinsler 3B Longoria CF/RF Hamilton Possible 5th/6th keepers: Peavy, Halladay, Hamels, Upton (leaning two pitchers and tossing Upton back) Others: Nate McLouth, Geovany Soto, Francisco Liriano, Rich Harden
The only players that can be dealt are those declared as keepers, picks can also be dealt.
About a month ago I was talking to the A-Rod owner and he offered me A-Rod for Longoria and one of my 1st round picks (post keepers, so round 7). I own the 9th and 10th pick, and he said he'd take the lower of the two. This was obviously before the Teixeira signing, but it's likely the offer is still on the table. Should I do it? I'm leaning away from it, as we can keep players for as long as we'd like, and there is a lot of talent going back into the draft as some of the top teams had a lot of tough cuts, and some of the bottom teams are filled with marginal at best keepers. All that said, should I take it? I was thinking of targeting one of two other players.
Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes. Both are considerably younger then A-Rod, and both player a thinner offensive position. The owner of Hanley Ramirez is usually very tough to make a fair deal with, and considering a top 3 talent is at stake, will likely be even tougher to reason with. However, I've dealt with him in the past. I was considering offering him the option of choosing my last two keepers, and dealing them post draft in a 2 for 1 for Han-Ram. Therefore I'd essentially go into the season with 5 keepers, and he'd go into the season with 7. Is that too much for Hanley, too little, or just right, and should I do it? His keepers are a bit top heavy IMO (Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Dustin Pedroia, Cliff Lee and Ervin Santana). I could also make an offer with 1 keeper and some combination of picks, but I'm not sure what combination (maybe a 1st and 3rd and get something like a 6th back with Hanley?).
I could make a similar pitch for Reyes, who is likely more acquirable, but being that the owner of Reyes doesn't deal much, I'm not sure. My last thought is dealing for Jimmy Rollins, though I'm not as keen of that idea. His price tag will be substantially lower, and one of my keeper arms and a pick such as a 3rd could probably fetch him, however I'd almost be equally inclined to keep my arm and draft a Hardy/Drew type in round 3-4 ish.
Any help on any/all of my questions would be appreciated. Thanks in advance and leave me a link and I'll get to responding ASAP.
i'd be curious to see who the top 10 or so players going back into the draft are so i could make a more educated decision on this, but with the info you've given i would make the trade for A-rod. i think longoria is being a bit overvalued so far this year, and while unlimited keeping length definitely increases his value, a-rod still has quite a few years of putting up top level fantasy numbers left in him imo.
also, i'd keep hamels and upton with the last two spots.
Keepers aren't official, but having talked to a handful of the owners, and having dealt with them in the past I have a rough guess as to who will be kept and who won't. So do give you an idea of what kind of talent will be going back in the draft that will probably go in the first 20 picks or so (I'll assume I'm not swayed from Halladay/Peavy): Hamels Upton McLouth Vlad Hart Votto Ellsbury Russell Martin V-Mart Bruce Chris Davis Billingsley Harden Liriano Shields Lackey Mo-Rivera Lidge Kazmir Gallardo Price K-Rod or Beckett
As you can see, lot of arms, and lot of young talent. I certainly understand the difference in value between A-Rod and Longoria, especially in a keeper, but the talent out their is solid.
I look at it this way, Longoria + a 1st rounder is probably more valuable this year then A-Rod and nothing. 2010 A-Rod is more valuable then Longoria, then after that I think the line really starts to blur.
That's a big part of the reason why I'd like to deal for Hanley or Reyes and part with either my last two keepers or a keeper and a combo of picks. Both are so young, and would be worth giving the nod in value this year for the long term value.
Thanks for the advice, any more thoughts would be appreciated now that you have a better sketch of what's out there.
I like your choices for hitter keepers. I would definately keep halladay since your league uses cg. I would probably keep peavy as well even though I love hamels and would consider keeping him if I could somehow pull a two for one trade.
A few thoughts. Do you always play to win this year? If so, then the A-Rod deal makes some sense. He's good for several more top-notch seasons, and you have to like throwing Tex into that lineup. You probably need to revisit that owner though, to see if the deal is still available.
If not (or on the other hand), A-Rod is 33, and Hanley and Reyes are 25, Hanley just turned 25 a week ago. It sounds like the Hanley owner will be difficult to deal with. That's no reason not to engage him, but I expect he will want more than you are offering for what looks like the consensus 1st overall pick. You may get better value on Reyes, to the extent the owner doesn't trade as often and might go for a more modest package. Hanley is outstanding, but Florida doesn't help him much in terms of spending $ to put guys around him; I am somewhat more comforted knowing Reyes has Beltran, Wright, and Delgato (as compared to Uggla, Cantu, and Hermida).
Does dealing for Hanley or Reyes allow you to potentially keep Longoria? I'd toss Upton back, but I prefer Hamels slightly over Halladay, personal bias toward a 25 year old NL lefty....
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein
If I dealt for Reyes or Hanley, Longoria would be on my team. If I make no deals he'll be kept as well. I do play to win from season to season, don't mistake me there, but I do like to have the best (as well as one of the youngest) cores I can put together. Most of my win now moves come around firesale time in the league when I have a gauge on my standing. It blew up a bit in my face this year. I was in 3rd, closely trailing the top 2 teams and dealt Ryan Braun in a can't refuse deal, where I'll be keeping none of the players I got in return (those players however were Nate McLouth, Vlad Guerrero, Geovany Soto and Cole Hamels). So I guess the best way I can put it is that I weigh this year with the future, and try to refrain from making monster moves that hurt my core significantly.
Part of the reason I'm looking to make such a blockbuster move before the season is because I have an extra 1st round pick (as well as moving up from the 10th to the 8th round in another deal during the season). Having an extra first with a top 3 ish keeper core in the league gives me a big leg up going into the season, but I'd be willing to sacrifice some of that leg up this year, for more long term help (hence wanting Hanley or Reyes, as opposed to dealing Longoria and a 1st for A-Rod).
The last thing I take into consideration is the relatively few managers in the league who look beyond surface stats and know anything about prospect type players. Usually I can get a few late round flyer types who make up for some earlier gambles in the draft. While less savvy owners in the league are taking steady unspectacular, limited upside type players (whom there tend to be a lot of left on the wire post draft), I'm taking some gambles, that if they pay off I look good, if they don't I replace with a stable veteran off the free agent list.
Just a little more insight into my thinking to get some more helpful responses. Thus far I appreciate the help and really like the thinking. Just trying to make the most educated decision I can make while more importantly taking some bias out of my decision making.
Let's see, where's a good place to start in a response that I feel I'm coming in halfway through the conversation.
6 Keepers: Pujols, Kinsler, Longoria, Hamilton, and Halladay are locks I think (agreed on the Halladay because of CG..that stats in your league makes him a god, but you already know that.)
Number 6 comes down to Hamels or Peavy. Either way given the amount of arms going back into the draft, I think I'd look to deal whoever gets me the best bat in return. Does that owner really want to keep Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee? I know you wouldn't but it seems as you said the league is mostly on the surface and looks at stats so I suppose so, but at least your two would upgrades for him. I'm assuming you just left C off the positions, otherwise Soto goes into the Util spot...not sure how many catchers would actually get drafted in a non-catcher league.
I'd probably sit tight with Longoria and ARod....I know ARod's great and all, but Longoria is so much younger plus you'd be giving up what seems like a very good player with the 10th pick. Not worth it in my eyes...A chance to be a draft round ahead of the rest of the teams...you have to love that advantage, and typically makes me feel better about reaches or players you take a chance on later in the draft.
Hanley would be nice, but not sure the 2 for 1 makes a ton of sense...except given you have the 9th and 10th pick in what is your 1st round (post keepers). Who else does this owner have on his team? Hanley + 9th pick in draft for Peavy/Hamels + Halladay? Of course you lose the round advantage you'd have given the 9th pick is actually equal to your 6th keeper. I think I like the idea of keeping your arms and picking up Hardy/Drew in the draft...especially Drew. If Reyes comes keeper (an arm + a 3rd round draft pick), do you think you could flip Reyes for Hanley? This way you do not give up the 6th keeper for him?
I think everybody would have made that Braun deal, I know I would...and a great way to keep playing for the win, even given the # of keepers.
Thanks Diamond Miners. Appreciate the insight and thought that went into your post. I did forget to include catcher as a position, thanks for catching that (pun intended ). The Hanley owner is a Mets fan, so there is a shot I could flip Reyes plus a little for Hanley if I acquired him, and I may consider doing that (something I hadn't thought about, thanks for the thought). I'm definitely going to strongly give consideration to dealing Peavy or Hamels and my 5th round pick for Granderson and a 3rd. I have floated the idea to the Granderson owner, and he's mulling over it. I may wait to make that offer when my 1st round selection comes up however and see how the draft plays out.
I'm thinking I'm going to hold off making any deals for Hanley or Reyes until after the draft. With two first round picks, it's likely I can put together a package post draft, and not have to worry about the headache of making selections for someone and dealing that player post draft. I appreciate all the help.