StrategyFebruary 7, 2013

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30 Teams in 30 Days: New York Mets - 2 comments

By Chris Routledge

After tantalising the team’s fanbase with a decent first half of 2012, the Mets returned to normality post-All Star Break, finishing an unhealthy 14 games below .500. The bright spot in the season was making some trades to bring in some exciting looking prospects, like the recently-acquired Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. But if the future looks potentially bright for the Mets, what are their fantasy prospects for 2013?

In “30 Teams in 30 Days,” the Fantasy Baseball Cafe will preview each team in Major League Baseball on a daily basis. In addition to projecting starting lineups, rotations and closing situations, the Cafe will identify potential targets for 2013 fantasy baseball drafts.
Offensive Starters

C John Buck.192.297.3472912410398w/MIA
1B Ike Davis.227.308.4626632900584 
2B Daniel Murphy.291.332.4036266510612 
SS Ruben Tejada.289.333.351531254501 
3B David Wright.306.391.49291219315670 
LF Lucas Duda.239.329.3894315571459 
CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis.252.315.376407284314 
RF Mike Baxter.263.365.413263175211 

Unsettled: The entire outfield. When you sign a 35-year-old journeyman outfielder in Marlon Byrd to provide some competition for places, you know there is not a lot to get excited about in the Mets’ outfield. There’s really nothing to get excited about from a fantasy perspective in the outfield either. More interesting will be to keep an eye on the catcher situation; how long will Buck keep the seat warm for d’Arnaud?
Target: Ike Davis. After David Wright, Davis is easily the best candidate for a productive fantasy season with the bat. An abysmal .229 average might well see him slip in drafts — particularly with 1B being so deep this year — but if he can maintain the form which saw him hit 20 HRs after the All-Star break last year, with an acceptable average of .255, then there is every reason to believe that 35 HRs is within his grasp.
The Rotation
Johan Santana (L)6-94.851.3311139117.0 
Jon Niese (L)13-93.401.1715549190.1 
Shaun Marcum (R)7-43.701.2710941124.0w/MIL
Dillon Gee (R)6-74.101.259729109.2 
Matt Harvey (R)3-52.731.15702659.1 

Unsettled: None, really. At time of writing, the Mets seem pretty set on going with the names above as their five-man rotation. The signing of Marcum filled the hole left by the departure of Cy Young winner RA Dickey. The main likelihood of the rotation becoming unsettled is down to the inevitable Santana injury; until that happens, expect these guys to get the regular starts.
Target: Matt Harvey. There’s a lot of pre-season love for Niese this year, and rightly so, after a fine 2012. I’m a sucker for the strikeout, though, and Niese doesn’t get enough for me to justify his current ADP of 108 overall (29th SP) over at MockDraftCentral. Harvey, on the other hand, is going at 168 overall as the 49th SP, and has a much nicer K-rate. The WHIP may be a problem, so don’t reach for him — and expect his innings to be limited in his first full season — but as a 4th/5th starter on your roster, you could do a lot worse.
The 8th and 9th Innings
Frank Francisco (R)235.531.61472142.1 
Bobby Parnell (R)72.491.24612068.2 

Chasing Saves: I could sum up this section with one word: avoid. The closer situation with the Mets is completely up in the air at the moment, with double-Frank’s hold on the position a tenuous one at best. Frankly, his 2012 performance was a shocker, and it is no wonder that the Mets seem to be engaged in a pursuit for a replacement. Bobby Parnell has every right to throw his hat in the ring, and with the Mets giving Brian Wilson a look and reportedly exploring the signing of both Jose Valverde and Brandon Lyon, you should steer clear of this bullpen until the closing rounds, or at least until it becomes more obvious who is getting the first shot at the gig.
Final Thoughts
The Mets have a bright future in the shape of their highly-rated prospects, but do not rank highly in terms of fantasy value for 2013. Wright and Davis are the only bats worth targeting, and the bullpen is too shaky at this point to know what to expect. The real value is likely to be found in the rotation, bearing in mind the combination of injury histories and young arms, which have an impact on projecting what value might be expected. As a team, I think a .500 record is the best the Mets can hope for this year — but I will happily be proved wrong!
Check back tomorrow for our look at the Philadelphia Phillies.

Chris Routledge is a Brit and a huge Mets fan. He is looking forward to their next World Series appearance at some point in the next 25 years, with any luck...
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2 Responses to “30 Teams in 30 Days: New York Mets”

  1. User avatar MashinSpuds says:

    Well, if the Mets sign Bourn at least there would be someone somewhat dependable to roam the outfield. Marlon Byrd indeed!

  2. User avatar chris8 says:

    Yeah, I’d be happy with the Bourn signing, if it comes about. The Byrd signing seems pointless on so many levels!


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