StrategyMarch 2, 2012


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Calculating Player Values II - 3 comments

By Jason Swartley

This is the second part of an article describing in very general terms, how to calculate player values. If you’ve not read Part I, that would be a good first step as I’ll be assuming you have from here forward. You can find Part I here.

Back? Great. So in summary, Part I describes one method to derive quantitative values for projected stats in all standard roto categories. I want to talk briefly about some variations of this, and ways that you can apply these same concepts to different kinds of leagues. After that we’ll move on to talk about adjusting where needed for your roster requirements, and ultimately computing dollar values for you auction drafters.

So the first question you might have on your mind: is this the only way to compute player values? Well, no. But it is a pretty good one, though perhaps more complex than other methods you might encounter. And I would argue, better. There is one other method which I think has merit, and I think ultimately is at the heart of many formula-driven models. The basic principal is to look at some final league standings, and try to draw conclusions from that. I’m going to use the stats from one of my leagues last year as an example. In the runs category, the highest placing team compiled 1,098 runs. The team with the lowest total had 775 (ouch). This was a 12-team league, so there were 11 places separating the two. And they had a gap between them of 323 runs. So the team in 12th place could in theory move up one place in runs for every 29.36 runs they added to their total. In home runs, the spread was 291 to 189 (ouch again). Here, we see an average of 9.27 home runs needed to move up one position. So, 9.27 HR is about equal in value to 29.36 runs. And we would make the same calculation for every scoring category to arrive at a fairly basic formula we could use to estimate value.

So why not just do it this way? Well, this method has some challenges. Namely, do you have access to completed season stats for the league in which you are about to participate? I wouldn’t recommend using mine I just shared, as this was a 13-hitter/8-pitcher roster, probably not what you’re using. In many leagues you encounter dead or under-managed teams that don’t give a realistic idea of what the floor for each category should be. You would ideally want to compare final stats for as many leagues as you can that played in a format as similar to yours as possible, because there is so much variance that comes from manager ability, activity level, position eligibility, transaction limits, innings limits, bench size, etc. Undoubtedly you could likely look at final stats from two leagues with identical setups and find some wide variation in the spread of points amongst teams. That’s what I like so much about the standard deviation method. You are drawing your values based on how each player relates to every other player in your projections. And this makes it very easy to make adjustments should you need to add or change scoring categories. For instance I got invited to play in a league that uses OBP instead of runs. That’s right, taking a walk counts more than scoring a run, just like in real baseball! Well, no problem. I ran Z-scores on OBP the same way I did batting average, added this into my total instead of runs and in a matter of minutes I had player rankings for this new scoring system.

So how would you customize for different league configurations? Really, whatever stat you need to add should fall into one of two categories; it will either be a counting stat like home runs or a ratio stat like ERA. The counting stats are easy; just find the mean and standard deviation and run a Z-score. For any ratio stat you need to find a way to turn it into a “value-added” stat, like the way we previously discussed doing for batting average. What numbers go into the stat, and how much does each walk/run/K/GDP/etc. affect your team average? Then you run Z-scores on this new value you computed. This can be challenging for some creative scoring systems.

Position Scarcity

From here, we’re going to look more at GiantsFan14’s projections he has so generously shared with the Cafe community.

Name Team POS Age PA AB H HR R RBI SB AVG TOT_VAL
Albert Pujols LAA 1B 32 671 583 185 40.34 110 118 11 0.316 10.487
Matt Kemp LAD OF 27 681 617 182 34.88 103 112 33 0.296 10.020
Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 29 676 578 190 33.47 110 115 3 0.328 9.495
Joey Votto CIN 1B 28 680 580 182 33.40 106 115 10 0.313 9.055
Carlos Gonzalez COL OF 26 600 552 164 31.21 103 104 23 0.298 8.317
Jose Bautista TOR 3B, OF 31 670 549 154 45.70 106 108 9 0.281 7.854
Robinson Cano NYY 2B 29 685 642 197 28.86 104 112 6 0.307 7.712
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS OF 28 650 605 182 18.90 102 74 40 0.301 7.557
Curtis Granderson NYY OF 31 670 593 157 37.75 118 103 21 0.265 7.510
Prince Fielder DET 1B 28 701 592 172 38.14 100 122 1 0.290 7.268
Dustin Pedroia BOS 2B 28 680 605 185 20.35 103 84 22 0.305 6.901
Troy Tulowitzki COL SS 27 600 541 163 30.77 94 104 11 0.301 6.895
Justin Upton ARZ OF 24 660 592 172 31.15 97 85 21 0.291 6.664
Adrian Gonzalez BOS 1B 30 705 617 185 31.02 100 110 1 0.301 6.626
Ian Kinsler TEX 2B 30 636 560 160 25.72 109 81 26 0.286 6.557
Hanley Ramirez MIA SS 28 620 553 162 20.88 91 84 31 0.292 6.245
Evan Longoria TB 3B 26 650 568 161 34.76 93 109 8 0.283 6.119
Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 32 680 600 166 37.20 99 114 3 0.277 6.010
Josh Hamilton TEX OF 31 569 527 161 27.76 87 98 9 0.306 5.956
Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 25 620 575 182 28.96 78 94 3 0.317 5.818
Matt Holliday STL OF 32 620 552 167 26.36 94 97 6 0.302 5.738
Eric Hosmer KC 1B 22 650 598 179 22.85 88 95 13 0.299 5.546
Desmond Jennings TB OF 25 700 625 168 17.37 109 61 45 0.269 5.533
Andrew McCutchen PIT OF 25 670 588 167 24.10 90 78 27 0.284 5.347
Michael Bourn ATL OF 29 710 650 184 2.46 95 47 61 0.283 5.099
Ryan Braun MIL OF 28 450 411 132 23.29 74 75 18 0.322 5.072
Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 33 575 545 162 28.26 85 102 3 0.297 5.053
Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF 22 625 550 149 38.29 89 100 6 0.271 4.987
Jose Reyes MIA SS 29 600 555 168 10.34 95 50 37 0.303 4.976
Starlin Castro CHC SS 22 690 652 202 12.62 84 66 24 0.310 4.936
Michael Young TEX 3B 35 688 640 197 15.40 90 95 6 0.308 4.862
Ichiro Suzuki SEA OF 38 720 680 210 6.05 87 48 36 0.309 4.764
Brett Lawrie TOR 3B 29 615 569 157 23.00 90 84 23 0.275 4.608
Carl Crawford BOS OF 30 620 586 165 14.93 86 71 35 0.283 4.466
Mike Napoli TEX C,1B 31 525 466 134 32.98 80 89 4 0.287 4.266
Hunter Pence PHI OF 29 663 611 172 24.12 86 93 12 0.282 4.218
Shane Victorino PHI OF 31 644 588 164 17.76 97 66 27 0.279 4.195
Nelson Cruz TEX OF 31 550 507 142 32.06 71 93 11 0.280 4.169
Brandon Phillips CIN 2B 31 676 631 181 18.84 94 77 16 0.286 4.138
Ben Zobrist TB 2B,OF 31 661 577 156 21.28 92 88 20 0.270 4.059
Michael Morse WAS 1B,OF 30 600 558 161 30.08 77 96 2 0.289 4.040
Adam Jones BAL OF 26 620 589 169 26.91 78 82 10 0.287 3.916
David Wright NYM 3B 29 600 531 148 22.29 80 87 18 0.278 3.887
Shin-Soo Choo CLE OF 29 600 532 155 18.74 75 78 20 0.292 3.781
Dan Uggla ATL 2B 32 672 601 158 35.22 95 93 2 0.263 3.745
Corey Hart MIL OF 30 600 548 152 28.52 87 84 8 0.277 3.739
Nick Markakis BAL OF 28 713 646 191 17.13 82 83 10 0.296 3.719
Elvis Andrus TEX SS 23 675 616 174 4.08 94 55 40 0.282 3.557
Jay Bruce CIN OF 25 650 582 154 33.52 84 91 7 0.265 3.549
B.J. Upton TB OF 27 630 559 141 20.47 84 73 38 0.251 3.522
Angel Pagan SF OF 31 600 553 159 9.72 77 63 35 0.288 3.456
Alex Gordon KC OF 28 650 580 160 22.13 92 76 14 0.275 3.429
Billy Butler KC 1B 26 674 608 182 20.61 75 90 1 0.299 3.411
Paul Konerko CHW 1B 36 600 530 150 29.71 71 99 1 0.282 3.396
Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B 36 550 489 137 24.90 82 91 6 0.280 3.293
Kevin Youkilis BOS 1B,3B 33 540 469 136 21.18 84 85 4 0.290 3.084
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE SS 26 650 605 169 18.40 82 78 15 0.280 2.986
Brett Gardner NYY OF 28 575 509 138 6.51 90 40 48 0.271 2.964
Lance Berkman STL 1B 36 580 488 137 26.64 79 86 3 0.281 2.919
Jayson Werth WAS OF 33 653 572 149 24.43 86 80 17 0.260 2.885
Michael Cuddyer COL 1B,OF 33 620 568 160 21.51 79 81 9 0.282 2.883
Derek Jeter NYY SS 38 658 604 175 8.63 94 63 18 0.290 2.831
Chase Utley PHI 2B 33 550 491 138 19.74 82 73 14 0.282 2.805
Carlos Santana CLE C,1B 26 650 550 144 26.91 87 94 6 0.261 2.804
Ike Davis NYM 1B 25 600 529 148 24.80 78 92 2 0.279 2.797
Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 22 630 578 165 23.43 74 86 4 0.286 2.778
Torii Hunter LAA OF 36 634 574 156 23.34 80 90 8 0.272 2.691
Melky Cabrera SF OF 27 630 586 168 13.45 83 72 15 0.286 2.646
Aramis Ramirez MIL 3B 34 562 521 147 24.08 76 91 1 0.282 2.599
Jimmy Rollins PHI SS 33 600 546 148 14.78 81 61 28 0.271 2.407
Howie Kendrick LAA 2B 28 587 557 161 15.23 78 66 14 0.289 2.352
Drew Stubbs CIN OF 27 620 563 142 18.65 88 53 35 0.252 2.325
Nick Swisher NYY OF 31 632 544 146 25.93 86 85 2 0.269 2.286
Peter Bourjos LAA OF 25 580 546 150 15.98 79 50 28 0.275 2.254
Rickie Weeks MIL 2B 28 600 541 143 24.53 90 68 10 0.264 2.128
Cameron Maybin SD OF 25 600 554 146 11.44 87 50 35 0.263 2.109
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 3B 27 565 507 148 20.11 74 72 4 0.292 2.079
Josh Willingham MIN OF 33 600 529 135 28.96 74 94 6 0.255 2.047
Kendrys Morales LAA 1B 29 500 469 137 23.99 62 82 1 0.292 2.045
Paul Goldschmidt CLE 1B 24 600 528 133 22.78 87 88 10 0.252 1.950
Ben Revere MIN OF 24 625 589 169 0.00 71 41 43 0.287 1.941
Matt Wieters BAL C 26 550 501 140 22.85 75 84 1 0.279 1.930
Buster Posey SFG C 25 575 521 152 16.72 69 80 4 0.292 1.868
Matt Joyce TB OF 27 575 511 135 21.92 74 84 10 0.264 1.776
Carlos Lee HOU 1B/OF 36 600 553 154 21.00 66 90 3 0.279 1.744
Chris Young ARZ OF 28 645 569 137 22.11 87 74 23 0.242 1.695
Alexei Ramirez CHW SS 30 659 615 169 16.63 81 73 10 0.275 1.656
Coco Crisp OAK OF 32 470 431 120 7.60 62 45 40 0.277 1.614
Jeff Francoeur KC OF 28 608 574 155 17.59 69 79 14 0.269 1.572
Mark Reynolds BAL 3B 28 617 540 123 36.15 84 87 8 0.228 1.571
Andre Ethier LAD OF 30 600 538 152 19.16 74 80 1 0.283 1.570
Ryan Howard PHI 1B 32 525 468 122 26.46 70 95 1 0.261 1.569
Brian McCann ATL C 28 541 480 134 23.67 60 84 4 0.279 1.549
Jemile Weeks OAK 2B 25 650 605 169 3.00 76 58 30 0.279 1.531
Joe Mauer MIN C 29 550 487 152 8.39 74 70 1 0.313 1.519
Martin Prado ATL 3B,OF 29 600 561 168 13.56 76 59 4 0.300 1.509
Jason Heyward ATL OF 22 600 522 140 18.67 80 68 11 0.268 1.401
Jason Kipnis CLE 2B 25 550 505 135 17.00 82 65 14 0.267 1.396
Jose Tabata PIT OF 23 600 546 154 6.85 83 40 27 0.282 1.384
Alex Rios CHW OF 31 600 566 152 16.54 73 61 20 0.269 1.279
Chris Heisey CIN OF 27 500 467 121 26.69 72 72 8 0.259 1.244
J.D. Martinez HOU OF 24 600 557 156 16.83 70 86 1 0.281 1.225
Erick Aybar LAA SS 28 595 563 158 8.54 70 50 26 0.280 1.195
Mark Trumbo LAA 1B 26 550 521 135 25.50 62 83 9 0.258 1.148
Alex Presley PIT OF 26 525 496 143 9.89 65 54 20 0.288 1.114
Neil Walker PIT 2B 26 650 597 163 12.65 76 83 7 0.274 1.102
Seth Smith OAK OF 29 567 516 143 16.14 75 67 8 0.277 1.051
Carlos Beltran STL OF 35 520 458 130 19.21 64 70 5 0.284 1.002
Danny Espinosa WAS 2B 25 650 594 143 23.70 82 75 15 0.241 0.907
Miguel Montero ARZ C 28 550 503 140 19.38 64 81 1 0.279 0.856
Emilio Bonifacio MIA SS,3B,OF 27 600 547 148 3.39 76 40 36 0.271 0.807
Ryan Roberts ARZ 2B,3B 31 600 531 134 17.68 80 67 16 0.251 0.742
Marco Scutaro COL SS 36 600 547 156 10.11 81 61 6 0.285 0.705
Jason Bay NYM OF 33 550 487 129 17.69 69 71 11 0.264 0.684
Austin Jackson DET OF 25 670 614 158 8.34 94 51 24 0.257 0.635
Dee Gordon LAD SS 24 575 551 150 0.00 70 29 45 0.272 0.621
Logan Morrison MIA OF 24 600 528 143 21.94 68 73 2 0.271 0.619
John Mayberry PHI OF 28 500 464 124 22.47 60 66 10 0.267 0.606
Gaby Sanchez MIA 1B 28 620 555 150 18.68 68 76 3 0.269 0.538
Kelly Johnson TOR 2B 30 640 573 142 20.49 82 63 15 0.248 0.515
Lucas Duda NYM OF 26 550 494 137 18.37 64 76 1 0.278 0.514
Mike Moustakas KC 3B 23 600 562 153 15.00 69 82 3 0.272 0.508
Brandon Belt SF 1B,OF 24 500 442 118 24.00 60 66 7 0.267 0.506
Nyjer Morgan MIL OF 31 520 489 141 3.23 69 39 26 0.289 0.453
Lucas Duda NYM 1B/OF 26 550 494 137 18.00 64 76 1 0.278 0.435
Delmon Young DET OF 26 550 526 145 15.53 63 81 2 0.277 0.397
Adam Lind TOR 1B 28 575 538 140 25.30 60 85 1 0.260 0.395
Dexter Fowler COL OF 26 600 528 144 8.60 88 46 15 0.273 0.394
Brennan Boesch DET OF 27 500 462 127 17.37 68 64 6 0.275 0.381
Derrek Lee FA 1B 36 536 486 132 21.05 66 71 2 0.272 0.377
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 29 550 512 136 21.61 71 74 0 0.266 0.341
Jhonny Peralta DET SS,3B 30 595 550 148 18.23 65 84 0 0.269 0.288
Alfonso Soriano CHC OF 36 521 488 126 24.68 57 82 4 0.258 0.241
Ian Desmond WAS SS 26 625 589 157 11.73 64 55 22 0.267 0.225
Jason Kubel ARZ OF 30 540 491 132 20.88 57 83 1 0.269 0.212
James Loney LAD 1B 28 609 561 156 11.89 61 74 6 0.279 0.112
Alex Avila DET C 25 550 475 129 18.30 59 75 3 0.272 0.072
David Freese STL 3B 29 500 465 135 12.83 55 74 1 0.290 0.054
Nolan Reimold BAL OF 28 500 452 118 19.69 60 68 9 0.260 0.013
Michael Brantley CLE OF 25 550 510 139 8.17 68 48 21 0.273 -0.040
Omar Infante MIA 2B 29 600 567 165 7.61 66 58 5 0.292 -0.089
Aaron Hill ARZ 2B 30 590 553 142 15.51 68 68 13 0.256 -0.103
Colby Rasmus TOR OF 25 550 495 125 19.17 81 59 7 0.252 -0.128
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 3B 29 500 458 122 20.56 65 60 5 0.267 -0.150
Lorenzo Cain KC OF 26 550 512 143 5.49 67 47 19 0.280 -0.194
Carlos Quentin SD OF 29 525 481 118 25.13 63 84 2 0.246 -0.203
Yunel Escobar TOR SS 29 600 540 153 10.97 75 50 4 0.283 -0.210
Juan Pierre PHI OF 34 500 470 135 1.15 60 34 29 0.287 -0.256
Chase Headley SD 3B 28 600 538 144 9.27 63 61 16 0.268 -0.382
Johnny Damon FA OF 38 500 454 122 11.15 67 56 13 0.269 -0.399
Todd Helton COL 1B 38 501 433 127 12.27 58 61 0 0.293 -0.462
Jose Altuve HOU 2B 22 550 534 151 6.00 60 44 18 0.283 -0.483
Marlon Byrd CHC OF 34 555 527 150 11.74 64 51 4 0.284 -0.527
Vernon Wells LAA OF 33 500 470 121 20.78 59 63 8 0.258 -0.529
Josh Reddick OAK OF 25 625 580 147 15.36 82 66 4 0.253 -0.611
Rafael Furcal STL SS 34 465 426 121 8.59 62 40 15 0.283 -0.652
Adam LaRoche WAS 1B 32 550 494 128 19.30 61 74 1 0.259 -0.660
David DeJesus CHC OF 32 550 502 138 11.69 69 56 4 0.274 -0.692
David Murphy TEX OF 30 455 417 117 12.49 50 53 12 0.281 -0.714
Yadier Molina STL C 29 522 484 138 11.57 48 63 6 0.286 -0.748
Carlos Pena TB 1B 34 550 462 106 27.42 66 77 3 0.230 -0.767
Allen Craig STL OF 27 375 349 100 14.80 50 60 3 0.287 -0.787
Will Venable SD OF 450 413 378 96 13.07 51 46 25 0.253 -0.860
Bobby Abreu LAA OF 38 500 433 113 9.88 55 56 18 0.260 -0.908
Dustin Ackley SEA 2B 24 600 532 139 11.32 70 57 10 0.262 -0.921
Casey Blake CLE 1B/3B 38 500 454 120 15.00 66 65 1 0.264 -0.958
Cliff Pennington OAK SS 28 570 525 137 7.68 62 54 19 0.260 -1.004
Eric Thames TOR OF 25 450 421 112 14.19 66 60 2 0.265 -1.016
Denard Span MIN OF 28 525 479 136 3.34 65 38 15 0.285 -1.031
Brent Morel CHW 3B 25 550 521 141 12.00 60 57 7 0.271 -1.035
Mike Carp SEA OF 26 550 506 132 17.43 57 75 0 0.260 -1.047
Alcides Escobar KC SS 25 575 546 143 4.31 65 44 25 0.262 -1.050
Jason Bartlett SD SS 32 587 539 144 4.24 67 45 20 0.267 -1.050
Placido Polanco PHI 3B 36 562 524 152 5.98 59 53 4 0.291 -1.080
Jon Jay STL OF 27 500 469 136 9.48 56 38 8 0.290 -1.175
Zack Cozart CIN SS 26 500 470 122 11.00 65 46 15 0.259 -1.198
Andres Torres NYM OF 34 475 426 107 9.93 65 40 22 0.252 -1.274
Daniel Murphy NYM 1B/2B/3B 27 450 419 123 7.06 51 52 5 0.294 -1.277
Russell Martin NYY C 29 500 444 115 14.57 59 57 8 0.259 -1.290
Domonic Brown PHI OF 24 400 355 97 10.91 52 42 15 0.272 -1.296
Chipper Jones ATL 3B 40 445 389 106 14.40 54 58 3 0.272 -1.316
Roger Bernadina WAS OF 28 450 417 108 11.20 52 40 22 0.258 -1.345
Mitch Moreland TEX 1B 26 475 434 115 17.10 56 57 3 0.264 -1.358
Jesus Guzman SD 1B 28 400 370 106 9.00 45 54 8 0.286 -1.420
Garrett Jones PIT 1B/OF 31 519 470 117 18.37 54 65 7 0.250 -1.457
Justin Smoak SEA 1B 25 600 532 133 21.10 57 69 0 0.250 -1.527
Raul Ibanez NYY OF 40 450 415 108 15.60 54 64 2 0.261 -1.575
Sean Rodriguez 2B/3B/SS 27 500 455 114 12.00 62 53 13 0.250 -1.577
Orlando Hudson SD 2B 34 503 453 118 7.09 64 43 15 0.260 -1.721
Lonnie Chisenhall CLE 3B 23 500 466 117 14.00 64 66 2 0.251 -1.742
Alberto Callaspo LAA 3B 29 500 456 131 6.88 52 46 5 0.288 -1.782
Franklin Gutierrez SEA OF 29 575 535 135 9.76 53 47 21 0.252 -1.786
Jason Bourgeois HOU OF 30 350 332 93 1.27 42 19 33 0.280 -1.847
Freddy Sanchez SF 2B 33 525 496 142 7.20 52 49 2 0.286 -1.859
Adam Dunn CHW 1B 32 559 472 109 27.41 55 67 0 0.231 -1.956
Ryan Raburn DET OF 31 403 378 101 14.95 52 51 2 0.266 -1.963
Ty Wigginton PHI 3B 34 506 466 117 17.15 54 55 5 0.251 -2.070
Clint Barmes PIT 2B,SS 33 550 509 126 13.98 63 61 4 0.248 -2.070
Jed Lowrie HOU SS 28 450 408 109 12.91 56 50 1 0.267 -2.105
Justin Morneau MIN 1B 31 336 303 83 12.05 49 56 0 0.273 -2.114
Stephen Drew ARZ SS 29 462 420 110 9.45 58 52 6 0.261 -2.124
Ryan Doumit MIN C 31 466 430 119 14.91 39 53 1 0.276 -2.135
Yonder Alonso SD OF 25 450 408 111 10.00 48 59 2 0.272 -2.141
J.P. Arencibia TOR C 26 500 463 105 24.58 48 79 1 0.227 -2.165
Kurt Suzuki OAK C 28 534 495 127 14.15 56 57 3 0.257 -2.170
Scott Rolen CIN 3B 37 425 391 104 9.90 52 60 2 0.266 -2.225
Gerardo Parra ARZ OF 25 400 365 106 6.58 42 37 10 0.292 -2.226
Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 26 500 469 125 11.24 46 58 3 0.265 -2.296
Chris Iannetta LAA C 29 450 383 93 16.56 51 58 5 0.242 -2.323
Gordon Beckham CHW 2B,3B 25 550 510 128 11.13 65 53 5 0.250 -2.362
Casey McGehee PIT 3B 29 475 439 117 13.15 43 62 0 0.267 -2.367
Juan Rivera LAD OF 33 456 421 109 12.55 46 62 3 0.260 -2.370
A.J. Pierzynski CHW C 35 504 484 137 8.98 41 51 1 0.283 -2.423
Wilson Ramos WAS C 24 450 419 112 13.69 48 52 0 0.267 -2.482
Ryan Theriot SF 2B/SS 32 480 450 125 1.66 50 37 13 0.279 -2.559
Jordan Schafer HOU OF 25 450 409 105 4.27 52 24 25 0.257 -2.615
Aubrey Huff SF 1B,OF 35 450 407 106 12.56 47 52 4 0.260 -2.619
Miguel Olivo SEA C 33 474 454 106 16.44 54 61 6 0.233 -2.661
Alex Gonzalez MIL SS 35 560 536 130 16.16 59 61 2 0.243 -2.685
Darwin Barney CHC 2B 26 575 552 153 1.95 51 41 8 0.277 -2.709
Geovany Soto CHC C 29 465 411 102 17.87 47 56 0 0.250 -2.762
Skip Schumaker STL 2B 32 500 462 131 3.45 53 41 2 0.283 -2.773
Jamey Carroll MIN 2B,SS 37 525 472 132 0.23 57 28 11 0.279 -2.782
John Buck MIA C 31 500 459 112 18.87 45 63 0 0.245 -2.799
Maicer Izturis LAA 2B 31 450 415 111 5.26 50 41 10 0.268 -2.811
Nate Schierholtz SF OF 28 375 352 97 8.07 45 38 7 0.276 -2.825
Jarrod Saltalamacchia BOS C 27 400 372 90 16.19 52 55 1 0.243 -2.840
Cody Ross BOS OF 31 400 365 93 12.07 48 47 5 0.254 -2.882
Ryan Hanigan CIN C 31 400 352 98 7.00 45 49 0 0.279 -2.965
Mark Ellis LAD 2B 34 475 449 116 6.63 49 43 11 0.258 -2.992
Ryan Sweeney BOS OF 27 425 385 108 4.41 51 40 2 0.281 -3.070
Carlos Ruiz PHI C 33 451 401 111 7.13 46 44 1 0.276 -3.086
Brian Roberts BAL 2B 33 350 317 85 5.41 41 32 14 0.268 -3.127
Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 22 375 342 84 12.00 41 56 5 0.246 -3.170
Mike Aviles BOS 2B 31 333 318 85 6.89 39 34 13 0.266 -3.182
Willie Bloomquist ARZ SS,OF 34 335 315 85 3.97 41 24 17 0.269 -3.325
Chris Coghlan MIA OF 27 355 326 89 5.58 46 30 8 0.272 -3.338
Nick Hundley SD C 28 400 369 96 10.00 44 47 2 0.260 -3.355
Tyler Pastornicky ATL SS 22 400 376 98 4.00 46 30 15 0.261 -3.400
Jonny Gomes OAK OF 31 350 315 76 13.72 42 47 5 0.242 -3.401
Ian Stewart CHC 3B 27 450 403 91 13.85 55 49 7 0.226 -3.496



The final column here reflects the sum of all five Z-scores for the standard roto categories. And these are at this point completely independent of position, this is simply the score for each player’s projected stats regardless if he’s a first baseman, second baseman or catcher. How you adjust for position scarcity depends upon your league setup. For now, let’s assume the following:

12 team league
14 hitters (C,C,1B,2B,SS,3B,CI,MI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT)
9 pitchers
no bench

Honestly, even if I have a bench I don’t adjust my rankings or values at all. You could adjust slightly when you get to dollar values if you want. So what do we mean when we talk about scarcity anyway? Is the catcher position scarce? Every major league team has at least one, right, so shouldn’t there easily be 24 to go around? Well yes, but the problem is more that many of them are players you’d never pick to have on your team, but you have to due to the roster requirements. Let’s get a count real quick. Twelve teams, with each picking 14 hitters means we will be drafting 168 hitters. If we were to take a closer look at the top 168 hitters, we would see the following breakdown:

9 are eligible at C
32 are eligible at 1B
19 are eligible at 2B
18 are eligible at SS
20 are eligible at 3B
85 are eligible at OF

Look over those numbers again. We’re saying that if this were a league with no roster restrictions at all, just draft the best 14 hitters you can find, we would still draft 19 second basemen, 20 third basemen, nine catchers, etc. just because they were the best hitters available. Notice that these totals almost exactly align with the totals of each position we actually need to draft. Middle infield is exactly where it needs to be. For every team to draft a 2B, a SS, and a MI, we need a total 36 players in the 2B/SS totals and we have 37 that are in the top 168 on their own merits. Now, are there still tiers you should consider when evaluating which positions to fill? Certainly, but just don’t over-compensate. Every middle infielder taken will be rosterable. Now these are just the numbers we’re seeing in GF’s projections, but I will tell you I saw very similar totals in my own projections. And your league may vary. If you are only playing nine hitters, you likely will have to make some adjustments.

But for now, it looks like the only place we need to adjust is catcher. If we had our druthers, we would only take 9 of them, but we have to take 24. And this means if you happen to get one of those top few, you have a comparative advantage to a team that has to take the 24th catcher. And that’s where the term “value over replacement player” (VORP) comes from. The top catcher’s value is no longer simply what he contributes to your team, but it is now how much he contributes to your team versus the poor schmuck that waited until the end and is starting Nick Hundley. Lots of computations can be made here, but bottom line we need to artificially inflate the value of catchers until 24 of them fall into our draftable universe. There are several ways you could do this; I do something pretty simple. I look at the value of catcher No. 24, in this case Hundley. The current value of actual player 168, Casey Blake, is -0.958. Hundley is sitting at -3.355. We need to add a little more, because adding 15 catchers to the top 168 bumps Blake down by that many. If we were to add 3 points to every catcher, that should about do it.

Name Team POS Age PA AB H HR R RBI SB AVG TOT_VAL
Albert Pujols LAA 1B 32 671 583 185 40 110 118 11 0.316 10.487
Matt Kemp LAD OF 27 681 617 182 35 103 112 33 0.296 10.020
Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 29 676 578 190 33 110 115 3 0.328 9.495
Joey Votto CIN 1B 28 680 580 182 33 106 115 10 0.313 9.055
Carlos Gonzalez COL OF 26 600 552 164 31 103 104 23 0.298 8.317
Jose Bautista TOR OF 31 670 549 154 46 106 108 9 0.281 7.854
Robinson Cano NYY 2B 29 685 642 197 29 104 112 6 0.307 7.712
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS OF 28 650 605 182 19 102 74 40 0.301 7.557
Curtis Granderson NYY OF 31 670 593 157 38 118 103 21 0.265 7.510
Prince Fielder DET 1B 28 701 592 172 38 100 122 1 0.290 7.268
Mike Napoli TEX C,1B 31 525 466 134 33 80 89 4 0.287 7.266
Dustin Pedroia BOS 2B 28 680 605 185 20 103 84 22 0.305 6.901
Troy Tulowitzki COL SS 27 600 541 163 31 94 104 11 0.301 6.895
Justin Upton ARZ OF 24 660 592 172 31 97 85 21 0.291 6.664
Adrian Gonzalez BOS 1B 30 705 617 185 31 100 110 1 0.301 6.626
Ian Kinsler TEX 2B 30 636 560 160 26 109 81 26 0.286 6.557
Hanley Ramirez MIA SS 28 620 553 162 21 91 84 31 0.292 6.245
Evan Longoria TB 3B 26 650 568 161 35 93 109 8 0.283 6.119
Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 32 680 600 166 37 99 114 3 0.277 6.010
Josh Hamilton TEX OF 31 569 527 161 28 87 98 9 0.306 5.956
Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 25 620 575 182 29 78 94 3 0.317 5.818
Carlos Santana CLE C,1B 26 650 550 144 27 87 94 6 0.261 5.804
Matt Holliday STL OF 32 620 552 167 26 94 97 6 0.302 5.738
Eric Hosmer KC 1B 22 650 598 179 23 88 95 13 0.299 5.546
Desmond Jennings TB OF 25 700 625 168 17 109 61 45 0.269 5.533
Andrew McCutchen PIT OF 25 670 588 167 24 90 78 27 0.284 5.347
Michael Bourn ATL OF 29 710 650 184 2 95 47 61 0.283 5.099
Ryan Braun MIL OF 28 450 411 132 23 74 75 18 0.322 5.072
Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 33 575 545 162 28 85 102 3 0.297 5.053
Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF 22 625 550 149 38 89 100 6 0.271 4.987
Jose Reyes MIA SS 29 600 555 168 10 95 50 37 0.303 4.976
Starlin Castro CHC SS 22 690 652 202 13 84 66 24 0.310 4.936
Matt Wieters BAL C 26 550 501 140 23 75 84 1 0.279 4.930
Buster Posey SFG C 25 575 521 152 17 69 80 4 0.292 4.868
Michael Young TEX 3B 35 688 640 197 15 90 95 6 0.308 4.862
Ichiro Suzuki SEA OF 38 720 680 210 6 87 48 36 0.309 4.764
Brett Lawrie TOR 3B 29 615 569 157 23 90 84 23 0.275 4.608
Brian McCann ATL C 28 541 480 134 24 60 84 4 0.279 4.549
Joe Mauer MIN C 29 550 487 152 8 74 70 1 0.313 4.519
Carl Crawford BOS OF 30 620 586 165 15 86 71 35 0.283 4.466
Hunter Pence PHI OF 29 663 611 172 24 86 93 12 0.282 4.218
Shane Victorino PHI OF 31 644 588 164 18 97 66 27 0.279 4.195
Nelson Cruz TEX OF 31 550 507 142 32 71 93 11 0.280 4.169
Brandon Phillips CIN 2B 31 676 631 181 19 94 77 16 0.286 4.138
Ben Zobrist TB 2B,OF 31 661 577 156 21 92 88 20 0.270 4.059
Michael Morse WAS 1B,OF 30 600 558 161 30 77 96 2 0.289 4.040
Adam Jones BAL OF 26 620 589 169 27 78 82 10 0.287 3.916
David Wright NYM 3B 29 600 531 148 22 80 87 18 0.278 3.887
Miguel Montero ARZ C 28 550 503 140 19 64 81 1 0.279 3.856
Shin-Soo Choo CLE OF 29 600 532 155 19 75 78 20 0.292 3.781
Dan Uggla ATL 2B 32 672 601 158 35 95 93 2 0.263 3.745
Corey Hart MIL OF 30 600 548 152 29 87 84 8 0.277 3.739
Nick Markakis BAL OF 28 713 646 191 17 82 83 10 0.296 3.719
Elvis Andrus TEX SS 23 675 616 174 4 94 55 40 0.282 3.557
Jay Bruce CIN OF 25 650 582 154 34 84 91 7 0.265 3.549
B.J. Upton TB OF 27 630 559 141 20 84 73 38 0.251 3.522
Angel Pagan SF OF 31 600 553 159 10 77 63 35 0.288 3.456
Alex Gordon KC OF 28 650 580 160 22 92 76 14 0.275 3.429
Billy Butler KC 1B 26 674 608 182 21 75 90 1 0.299 3.411
Paul Konerko CHW 1B 36 600 530 150 30 71 99 1 0.282 3.396
Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B 36 550 489 137 25 82 91 6 0.280 3.293
Kevin Youkilis BOS 1B,3B 33 540 469 136 21 84 85 4 0.290 3.084
Alex Avila DET C 25 550 475 129 18 59 75 3 0.272 3.072
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE SS 26 650 605 169 18 82 78 15 0.280 2.986
Brett Gardner NYY OF 28 575 509 138 7 90 40 48 0.271 2.964
Lance Berkman STL 1B, OF 36 580 488 137 27 79 86 3 0.281 2.919
Jayson Werth WAS OF 33 653 572 149 24 86 80 17 0.260 2.885
Michael Cuddyer COL 1B,OF 33 620 568 160 22 79 81 9 0.282 2.883
Derek Jeter NYY SS 38 658 604 175 9 94 63 18 0.290 2.831
Chase Utley PHI 2B 33 550 491 138 20 82 73 14 0.282 2.805
Ike Davis NYM 1B 25 600 529 148 25 78 92 2 0.279 2.797
Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 22 630 578 165 23 74 86 4 0.286 2.778
Torii Hunter LAA OF 36 634 574 156 23 80 90 8 0.272 2.691
Melky Cabrera SF OF 27 630 586 168 13 83 72 15 0.286 2.646
Aramis Ramirez MIL 3B 34 562 521 147 24 76 91 1 0.282 2.599
Jimmy Rollins PHI SS 33 600 546 148 15 81 61 28 0.271 2.407
Howie Kendrick LAA 2B 28 587 557 161 15 78 66 14 0.289 2.352
Drew Stubbs CIN OF 27 620 563 142 19 88 53 35 0.252 2.325
Nick Swisher NYY OF 31 632 544 146 26 86 85 2 0.269 2.286
Peter Bourjos LAA OF 25 580 546 150 16 79 50 28 0.275 2.254
Yadier Molina STL C 29 522 484 138 12 48 63 6 0.286 2.252
Rickie Weeks MIL 2B 28 600 541 143 25 90 68 10 0.264 2.128
Cameron Maybin SD OF 25 600 554 146 11 87 50 35 0.263 2.109
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 3B 27 565 507 148 20 74 72 4 0.292 2.079
Josh Willingham MIN OF 33 600 529 135 29 74 94 6 0.255 2.047
Kendrys Morales LAA 1B 29 500 469 137 24 62 82 1 0.292 2.045
Paul Goldschmidt CLE 1B 24 600 528 133 23 87 88 10 0.252 1.950
Ben Revere MIN OF 24 625 589 169 0 71 41 43 0.287 1.941
Matt Joyce TB OF 27 575 511 135 22 74 84 10 0.264 1.776
Carlos Lee HOU 1B/OF 36 600 553 154 21 66 90 3 0.279 1.744
Russell Martin NYY C 29 500 444 115 15 59 57 8 0.259 1.710
Chris Young ARZ OF 28 645 569 137 22 87 74 23 0.242 1.695
Alexei Ramirez CHW SS 30 659 615 169 17 81 73 10 0.275 1.656
Coco Crisp OAK OF 32 470 431 120 8 62 45 40 0.277 1.614
Jeff Francoeur KC OF 28 608 574 155 18 69 79 14 0.269 1.572
Mark Reynolds BAL 3B 28 617 540 123 36 84 87 8 0.228 1.571
Andre Ethier LAD OF 30 600 538 152 19 74 80 1 0.283 1.570
Ryan Howard PHI 1B 32 525 468 122 26 70 95 1 0.261 1.569
Jemile Weeks OAK 2B 25 650 605 169 3 76 58 30 0.279 1.531
Martin Prado ATL 3B,OF 29 600 561 168 14 76 59 4 0.300 1.509
Jason Heyward ATL OF 22 600 522 140 19 80 68 11 0.268 1.401
Jason Kipnis CLE 2B 25 550 505 135 17 82 65 14 0.267 1.396
Jose Tabata PIT OF 23 600 546 154 7 83 40 27 0.282 1.384
Alex Rios CHW OF 31 600 566 152 17 73 61 20 0.269 1.279
Chris Heisey CIN OF 27 500 467 121 27 72 72 8 0.259 1.244
J.D. Martinez HOU OF 24 600 557 156 17 70 86 1 0.281 1.225
Erick Aybar LAA SS 28 595 563 158 9 70 50 26 0.280 1.195
Mark Trumbo LAA 1B 26 550 521 135 25 62 83 9 0.258 1.148
Alex Presley PIT OF 26 525 496 143 10 65 54 20 0.288 1.114
Neil Walker PIT 2B 26 650 597 163 13 76 83 7 0.274 1.102
Seth Smith OAK OF 29 567 516 143 16 75 67 8 0.277 1.051
Carlos Beltran STL OF 35 520 458 130 19 64 70 5 0.284 1.002
Danny Espinosa WAS 2B 25 650 594 143 24 82 75 15 0.241 0.907
Ryan Doumit MIN C 31 466 430 119 15 39 53 1 0.276 0.865
J.P. Arencibia TOR C 26 500 463 105 25 48 79 1 0.227 0.835
Kurt Suzuki OAK C 28 534 495 127 14 56 57 3 0.257 0.830
Emilio Bonifacio MIA SS,3B,OF 27 600 547 148 3 76 40 36 0.271 0.807
Ryan Roberts ARZ 2B,3B 31 600 531 134 18 80 67 16 0.251 0.742
Marco Scutaro COL SS 36 600 547 156 10 81 61 6 0.285 0.705
Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 26 500 469 125 11 46 58 3 0.265 0.704
Jason Bay NYM OF 33 550 487 129 18 69 71 11 0.264 0.684
Chris Iannetta LAA C 29 450 383 93 17 51 58 5 0.242 0.677
Austin Jackson DET OF 25 670 614 158 8 94 51 24 0.257 0.635
Dee Gordon LAD SS 24 575 551 150 0 70 29 45 0.272 0.621
Logan Morrison MIA OF 24 600 528 143 22 68 73 2 0.271 0.619
John Mayberry PHI OF 28 500 464 124 22 60 66 10 0.267 0.606
A.J. Pierzynski CHW C 35 504 484 137 9 41 51 1 0.283 0.577
Gaby Sanchez MIA 1B 28 620 555 150 19 68 76 3 0.269 0.538
Wilson Ramos WAS C 24 450 419 112 14 48 52 0 0.267 0.518
Kelly Johnson TOR 2B 30 640 573 142 20 82 63 15 0.248 0.515
Lucas Duda NYM OF 26 550 494 137 18 64 76 1 0.278 0.514
Mike Moustakas KC 3B 23 600 562 153 15 69 82 3 0.272 0.508
Brandon Belt SF 1B,OF 24 500 442 118 24 60 66 7 0.267 0.506
Nyjer Morgan MIL OF 31 520 489 141 3 69 39 26 0.289 0.453
Lucas Duda NYM 1B/OF 26 550 494 137 18 64 76 1 0.278 0.435
Delmon Young DET OF 26 550 526 145 16 63 81 2 0.277 0.397
Adam Lind TOR 1B 28 575 538 140 25 60 85 1 0.260 0.395
Dexter Fowler COL OF 26 600 528 144 9 88 46 15 0.273 0.394
Brennan Boesch DET OF 27 500 462 127 17 68 64 6 0.275 0.381
Derrek Lee FA 1B 36 536 486 132 21 66 71 2 0.272 0.377
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 29 550 512 136 22 71 74 0 0.266 0.341
Miguel Olivo SEA C 33 474 454 106 16 54 61 6 0.233 0.339
Jhonny Peralta DET SS,3B 30 595 550 148 18 65 84 0 0.269 0.288
Alfonso Soriano CHC OF 36 521 488 126 25 57 82 4 0.258 0.241
Geovany Soto CHC C 29 465 411 102 18 47 56 0 0.250 0.238
Ian Desmond WAS SS 26 625 589 157 12 64 55 22 0.267 0.225
Jason Kubel ARZ OF 30 540 491 132 21 57 83 1 0.269 0.212
John Buck MIA C 31 500 459 112 19 45 63 0 0.245 0.201
Jarrod Saltalamacchia BOS C 27 400 372 90 16 52 55 1 0.243 0.160
James Loney LAD 1B 28 609 561 156 12 61 74 6 0.279 0.112
David Freese STL 3B 29 500 465 135 13 55 74 1 0.290 0.054
Ryan Hanigan CIN C 31 400 352 98 7 45 49 0 0.279 0.035
Nolan Reimold BAL OF 28 500 452 118 20 60 68 9 0.260 0.013
Michael Brantley CLE OF 25 550 510 139 8 68 48 21 0.273 -0.040
Carlos Ruiz PHI C 33 451 401 111 7 46 44 1 0.276 -0.086
Omar Infante MIA 2B 29 600 567 165 8 66 58 5 0.292 -0.089
Aaron Hill ARZ 2B 30 590 553 142 16 68 68 13 0.256 -0.103
Colby Rasmus TOR OF 25 550 495 125 19 81 59 7 0.252 -0.128
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 3B 29 500 458 122 21 65 60 5 0.267 -0.150
Lorenzo Cain KC OF 26 550 512 143 5 67 47 19 0.280 -0.194
Carlos Quentin SD OF 29 525 481 118 25 63 84 2 0.246 -0.203
Yunel Escobar TOR SS 29 600 540 153 11 75 50 4 0.283 -0.210
Juan Pierre PHI OF 34 500 470 135 1 60 34 29 0.287 -0.256
Nick Hundley SD C 28 400 369 96 10 44 47 2 0.260 -0.355
Chase Headley SD 3B 28 600 538 144 9 63 61 16 0.268 -0.382
Johnny Damon FA OF 38 500 454 122 11 67 56 13 0.269 -0.399
Todd Helton COL 1B 38 501 433 127 12 58 61 0 0.293 -0.462
Jose Altuve HOU 2B 22 550 534 151 6 60 44 18 0.283 -0.483
Marlon Byrd CHC OF 34 555 527 150 12 64 51 4 0.284 -0.527
Vernon Wells LAA OF 33 500 470 121 21 59 63 8 0.258 -0.529
Josh Reddick OAK OF 25 625 580 147 15 82 66 4 0.253 -0.611
Rafael Furcal STL SS 34 465 426 121 9 62 40 15 0.283 -0.652
Adam LaRoche WAS 1B 32 550 494 128 19 61 74 1 0.259 -0.660
David DeJesus CHC OF 32 550 502 138 12 69 56 4 0.274 -0.692
David Murphy TEX OF 30 455 417 117 12 50 53 12 0.281 -0.714
Carlos Pena TB 1B 34 550 462 106 27 66 77 3 0.230 -0.767
Allen Craig STL OF 27 375 349 100 15 50 60 3 0.287 -0.787
Will Venable SD OF 450 413 378 96 13 51 46 25 0.253 -0.860
Bobby Abreu LAA OF 38 500 433 113 10 55 56 18 0.260 -0.908
Dustin Ackley SEA 2B 24 600 532 139 11 70 57 10 0.262 -0.921
Casey Blake CLE 1B/3B 38 500 454 120 15 66 65 1 0.264 -0.958
Cliff Pennington OAK SS 28 570 525 137 8 62 54 19 0.260 -1.004
Eric Thames TOR OF 25 450 421 112 14 66 60 2 0.265 -1.016
Denard Span MIN OF 28 525 479 136 3 65 38 15 0.285 -1.031
Brent Morel CWS 3B 25 550 521 141 12 60 57 7 0.271 -1.035
Mike Carp SEA OF 26 550 506 132 17 57 75 0 0.260 -1.047
Alcides Escobar KC SS 25 575 546 143 4 65 44 25 0.262 -1.050
Jason Bartlett SD SS 32 587 539 144 4 67 45 20 0.267 -1.050
Placido Polanco PHI 3B 36 562 524 152 6 59 53 4 0.291 -1.080
Jon Jay STL OF 27 500 469 136 9 56 38 8 0.290 -1.175
Zack Cozart CIN SS 26 500 470 122 11 65 46 15 0.259 -1.198
Andres Torres NYM OF 34 475 426 107 10 65 40 22 0.252 -1.274
Domonic Brown PHI OF 24 400 355 97 11 52 42 15 0.272 -1.296
Daniel Murphy NYM 1B/2B/3B 27 450 419 123 7 51 52 5 0.294 -1.299
Chipper Jones ATL 3B 40 445 389 106 14 54 58 3 0.272 -1.316
Garrett Jones PIT 1B/OF 31 519 470 118 18 54 65 7 0.250 -1.343
Roger Bernadina WAS OF 28 450 417 108 11 52 40 22 0.258 -1.345
Mitch Moreland TEX 1B 26 475 434 115 17 56 57 3 0.264 -1.358
Jesus Guzman SD 1B 28 400 370 106 9 45 54 8 0.286 -1.420
Justin Smoak SEA 1B 25 600 532 133 21 57 69 0 0.250 -1.527
Raul Ibanez NYY OF 40 450 415 108 16 54 64 2 0.261 -1.575
Sean Rodriguez TB 2B/3B/SS 27 500 455 114 12 62 53 13 0.250 -1.577
Orlando Hudson SD 2B 34 503 453 118 7 64 43 15 0.260 -1.721
Lonnie Chisenhall CLE 3B 23 500 466 117 14 64 66 2 0.251 -1.742
Alberto Callaspo LAA 3B 29 500 456 131 7 52 46 5 0.288 -1.782
Franklin Gutierrez SEA OF 29 575 535 135 10 53 47 21 0.252 -1.786
Jason Bourgeois HOU OF 30 350 332 93 1 42 19 33 0.280 -1.847
Freddy Sanchez SF 2B 33 525 496 142 7 52 49 2 0.286 -1.859
Adam Dunn CHW 1B 32 559 472 109 27 55 67 0 0.231 -1.956
Ryan Raburn DET OF 31 403 378 101 15 52 51 2 0.266 -1.963
Ty Wigginton PHI 3B 34 506 466 117 17 54 55 5 0.251 -2.070
Clint Barmes PIT 2B,SS 33 550 509 126 14 63 61 4 0.248 -2.070
Jed Lowrie HOU SS 28 450 408 109 13 56 50 1 0.267 -2.105
Justin Morneau MIN 1B 31 336 303 83 12 49 56 0 0.273 -2.114
Stephen Drew ARZ SS 29 462 420 110 9 58 52 6 0.261 -2.124
Yonder Alonso SD OF 25 450 408 111 10 48 59 2 0.272 -2.141
Scott Rolen CIN 3B 37 425 391 104 10 52 60 2 0.266 -2.225
Gerardo Parra ARZ OF 25 400 365 106 7 42 37 10 0.292 -2.226
Gordon Beckham CHW 2B,3B 25 550 510 128 11 65 53 5 0.250 -2.362
Casey McGehee PIT 3B 29 475 439 117 13 43 62 0 0.267 -2.367
Juan Rivera LAD OF 33 456 421 109 13 46 62 3 0.260 -2.370
Ryan Theriot SF 2B 32 480 450 125 2 50 37 13 0.279 -2.559
Jordan Schafer HOU OF 25 450 409 105 4 52 24 25 0.257 -2.615
Aubrey Huff SF 1B,OF 35 450 407 106 13 47 52 4 0.260 -2.619
Alex Gonzalez MIL SS 35 560 536 130 16 59 61 2 0.243 -2.685
Darwin Barney CHC 2B 26 575 552 153 2 51 41 8 0.277 -2.709
Skip Schumaker STL 2B 32 500 462 131 3 53 41 2 0.283 -2.773
Jamey Carroll MIN 2B,SS 37 525 472 132 0 57 28 11 0.279 -2.782
Maicer Izturis LAA 2B 31 450 415 111 5 50 41 10 0.268 -2.811
Nate Schierholtz SF OF 28 375 352 97 8 45 38 7 0.276 -2.825
Cody Ross BOS OF 31 400 365 93 12 48 47 5 0.254 -2.882
Mark Ellis LAD 2B 34 475 449 116 7 49 43 11 0.258 -2.992
Ryan Sweeney BOS OF 27 425 385 108 4 51 40 2 0.281 -3.070
Brian Roberts BAL 2B 33 350 317 85 5 41 32 14 0.268 -3.127
Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 22 375 342 84 12 41 56 5 0.246 -3.170
Mike Aviles BOS 2B 31 333 318 85 7 39 34 13 0.266 -3.182
Willie Bloomquist ARZ SS,OF 34 335 315 85 4 41 24 17 0.269 -3.325
Chris Coghlan MIA OF 27 355 326 89 6 46 30 8 0.272 -3.338
Tyler Pastornicky ATL SS 22 400 376 98 4 46 30 15 0.261 -3.400
Jonny Gomes OAK OF 31 350 315 76 14 42 47 5 0.242 -3.401
Ian Stewart CHC 3B 27 450 403 91 14 55 49 7 0.226 -3.496



Note that in making this adjustment to catchers, we also altered the positional content of our draftable universe for other positions. In this case, it’s still pretty close so I’m not adjusting it further. But you’ll just want to spot check yours again.

Dollar Values

As we have seen with computing player values and adjusting for positional scarcity, there is more than one method to determine dollar values for players. Again, I’ll show you one way and you can adjust as necessary for your situation. If you haven’t figured it out by now, my aim in this article is to equip you to do this for yourself, not to write a bunch of fluff then present you a finished product that’s exactly what you want. The aim is to teach you to fish, so to speak; not serve you up some parmesan crusted halibut with lemon caper sauce and a side of grilled asparagus.

And again, how we approach this next step depends upon the makeup of your league. We’ll keep the same roster configuration as before, which is a pretty common format. Let’s assume we have again a 12-team league, and we’re drafting via an auction, with a budget of $260. We’ll start with determining how much money we’re spending on hitting, and how much on pitching. I’m going to allow just as much for every pitcher as for every hitter, but not everyone does it this way. Some people use a 70/30 split, or 60/40, or anywhere in between. Our 23 man roster consists of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. So 14/23, or 60.87%, of our roster is hitters. Each of the 12 teams has a $260 budget, so there are $3,120 in play. 60.87% of this would be $1,899, let’s round it to $1,900 we’ll dedicate to hitting. That leaves $1,220 to spend on pitching. I’ll only show you the hitting side, calculating pitcher values will be good practice for you.

As we mentioned before, we will be drafting 168 hitters. And we have $1,900 to distribute among those 168 hitters. You’ll see people do it differently but I always calculate mine out to the penny, even though you actually will be bidding whole dollars. I also exactly distribute the entire $1,900 over the 168 hitters I think should be drafted. Toward the end, of course, I see other teams choosing players I have negative values assigned to. I say don’t worry about it, this is your draft sheet. not theirs.

As you might have guessed, we will be using that total Z-score column to determine how much of our $1,900 each hitters should be allocated. But if you look at it closely(and if I had numbered the lines), you might notice that these values drop to zero at hitter No. 157. We didn’t worry about this we looking at rankings, all we cared about was comparative value. But now, we can’t have players we know will be drafted valued at a negative dollar figure. So easiest thing to do is re-zero our scale. Kind of like re-zeroing an actual scale say if you had a box on it but wanted to weigh only what was in the box. In our case, player No. 168 needs to have a positive value, and No. 169 needs to have a zero or negative value. Player No. 169 for us is Todd Helton, with total Z-score of -.462. So if we add .462 to every player, this should reset our scale.

Now that we have exactly 168 hitters with a positive Z-score sum, we add up the entire sum of these positive Z-scores. I get a total value for all hitters of 532.173. This is the realm over which our dollars need to be evenly distributed, so we’re dividing our $1,900 over these 532 values. So each unit of z-score is worth $3.57. We would then multiply our adjusted z-score by this amount to determine the dollar value. This should produce something like this:

Name Team POS Age PA AB H HR R RBI SB AVG TOT_VAL ADJ_VAL $
Albert Pujols LAA 1B 32 671 583 185 40 110 118 11 0.316 10.487 10.949 39.09
Matt Kemp LAD OF 27 681 617 182 35 103 112 33 0.296 10.020 10.482 37.42
Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 29 676 578 190 33 110 115 3 0.328 9.495 9.957 35.55
Joey Votto CIN 1B 28 680 580 182 33 106 115 10 0.313 9.055 9.517 33.98
Carlos Gonzalez COL OF 26 600 552 164 31 103 104 23 0.298 8.317 8.779 31.34
Jose Bautista TOR OF 31 670 549 154 46 106 108 9 0.281 7.854 8.316 29.69
Robinson Cano NYY 2B 29 685 642 197 29 104 112 6 0.307 7.712 8.174 29.18
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS OF 28 650 605 182 19 102 74 40 0.301 7.557 8.019 28.63
Curtis Granderson NYY OF 31 670 593 157 38 118 103 21 0.265 7.510 7.972 28.46
Prince Fielder DET 1B 28 701 592 172 38 100 122 1 0.290 7.268 7.730 27.60
Mike Napoli TEX C,1B 31 525 466 134 33 80 89 4 0.287 7.266 7.728 27.59
Dustin Pedroia BOS 2B 28 680 605 185 20 103 84 22 0.305 6.901 7.363 26.28
Troy Tulowitzki COL SS 27 600 541 163 31 94 104 11 0.301 6.895 7.357 26.27
Justin Upton ARZ OF 24 660 592 172 31 97 85 21 0.291 6.664 7.126 25.44
Adrian Gonzalez BOS 1B 30 705 617 185 31 100 110 1 0.301 6.626 7.088 25.31
Ian Kinsler TEX 2B 30 636 560 160 26 109 81 26 0.286 6.557 7.019 25.06
Hanley Ramirez MIA SS 28 620 553 162 21 91 84 31 0.292 6.245 6.707 23.94
Evan Longoria TB 3B 26 650 568 161 35 93 109 8 0.283 6.119 6.581 23.50
Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 32 680 600 166 37 99 114 3 0.277 6.010 6.472 23.10
Josh Hamilton TEX OF 31 569 527 161 28 87 98 9 0.306 5.956 6.418 22.91
Pablo Sandoval SF 3B 25 620 575 182 29 78 94 3 0.317 5.818 6.280 22.42
Carlos Santana CLE C,1B 26 650 550 144 27 87 94 6 0.261 5.804 6.266 22.37
Matt Holliday STL OF 32 620 552 167 26 94 97 6 0.302 5.738 6.200 22.13
Eric Hosmer KC 1B 22 650 598 179 23 88 95 13 0.299 5.546 6.008 21.45
Desmond Jennings TB OF 25 700 625 168 17 109 61 45 0.269 5.533 5.995 21.40
Andrew McCutchen PIT OF 25 670 588 167 24 90 78 27 0.284 5.347 5.809 20.74
Michael Bourn ATL OF 29 710 650 184 2 95 47 61 0.283 5.099 5.561 19.85
Ryan Braun MIL OF 28 450 411 132 23 74 75 18 0.322 5.072 5.534 19.75
Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 33 575 545 162 28 85 102 3 0.297 5.053 5.515 19.69
Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF 22 625 550 149 38 89 100 6 0.271 4.987 5.449 19.45
Jose Reyes MIA SS 29 600 555 168 10 95 50 37 0.303 4.976 5.438 19.41
Starlin Castro CHC SS 22 690 652 202 13 84 66 24 0.310 4.936 5.398 19.27
Matt Wieters BAL C 26 550 501 140 23 75 84 1 0.279 4.930 5.392 19.25
Buster Posey SFG C 25 575 521 152 17 69 80 4 0.292 4.868 5.330 19.03
Michael Young TEX 3B 35 688 640 197 15 90 95 6 0.308 4.862 5.324 19.01
Ichiro Suzuki SEA OF 38 720 680 210 6 87 48 36 0.309 4.764 5.226 18.66
Brett Lawrie TOR 3B 29 615 569 157 23 90 84 23 0.275 4.608 5.070 18.10
Brian McCann ATL C 28 541 480 134 24 60 84 4 0.279 4.549 5.011 17.89
Joe Mauer MIN C 29 550 487 152 8 74 70 1 0.313 4.519 4.981 17.78
Carl Crawford BOS OF 30 620 586 165 15 86 71 35 0.283 4.466 4.928 17.59
Hunter Pence PHI OF 29 663 611 172 24 86 93 12 0.282 4.218 4.680 16.71
Shane Victorino PHI OF 31 644 588 164 18 97 66 27 0.279 4.195 4.657 16.63
Nelson Cruz TEX OF 31 550 507 142 32 71 93 11 0.280 4.169 4.631 16.53
Brandon Phillips CIN 2B 31 676 631 181 19 94 77 16 0.286 4.138 4.600 16.42
Ben Zobrist TB 2B,OF 31 661 577 156 21 92 88 20 0.270 4.059 4.521 16.14
Michael Morse WAS 1B,OF 30 600 558 161 30 77 96 2 0.289 4.040 4.502 16.07
Adam Jones BAL OF 26 620 589 169 27 78 82 10 0.287 3.916 4.378 15.63
David Wright NYM 3B 29 600 531 148 22 80 87 18 0.278 3.887 4.349 15.53
Miguel Montero ARZ C 28 550 503 140 19 64 81 1 0.279 3.856 4.318 15.42
Shin-Soo Choo CLE OF 29 600 532 155 19 75 78 20 0.292 3.781 4.243 15.15
Dan Uggla ATL 2B 32 672 601 158 35 95 93 2 0.263 3.745 4.207 15.02
Corey Hart MIL OF 30 600 548 152 29 87 84 8 0.277 3.739 4.201 15.00
Nick Markakis BAL OF 28 713 646 191 17 82 83 10 0.296 3.719 4.181 14.93
Elvis Andrus TEX SS 23 675 616 174 4 94 55 40 0.282 3.557 4.019 14.35
Jay Bruce CIN OF 25 650 582 154 34 84 91 7 0.265 3.549 4.011 14.32
B.J. Upton TB OF 27 630 559 141 20 84 73 38 0.251 3.522 3.984 14.22
Angel Pagan SF OF 31 600 553 159 10 77 63 35 0.288 3.456 3.918 13.99
Alex Gordon KC OF 28 650 580 160 22 92 76 14 0.275 3.429 3.891 13.89
Billy Butler KC 1B 26 674 608 182 21 75 90 1 0.299 3.411 3.873 13.83
Paul Konerko CHW 1B 36 600 530 150 30 71 99 1 0.282 3.396 3.858 13.77
Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B 36 550 489 137 25 82 91 6 0.280 3.293 3.755 13.40
Kevin Youkilis BOS 1B,3B 33 540 469 136 21 84 85 4 0.290 3.084 3.546 12.66
Alex Avila DET C 25 550 475 129 18 59 75 3 0.272 3.072 3.534 12.62
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE SS 26 650 605 169 18 82 78 15 0.280 2.986 3.448 12.31
Brett Gardner NYY OF 28 575 509 138 7 90 40 48 0.271 2.964 3.426 12.23
Lance Berkman STL 1B, OF 36 580 488 137 27 79 86 3 0.281 2.919 3.381 12.07
Jayson Werth WAS OF 33 653 572 149 24 86 80 17 0.260 2.885 3.347 11.95
Michael Cuddyer COL 1B,OF 33 620 568 160 22 79 81 9 0.282 2.883 3.345 11.94
Derek Jeter NYY SS 38 658 604 175 9 94 63 18 0.290 2.831 3.293 11.76
Chase Utley PHI 2B 33 550 491 138 20 82 73 14 0.282 2.805 3.267 11.66
Ike Davis NYM 1B 25 600 529 148 25 78 92 2 0.279 2.797 3.259 11.64
Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 22 630 578 165 23 74 86 4 0.286 2.778 3.240 11.57
Torii Hunter LAA OF 36 634 574 156 23 80 90 8 0.272 2.691 3.153 11.26
Melky Cabrera SF OF 27 630 586 168 13 83 72 15 0.286 2.646 3.108 11.09
Aramis Ramirez MIL 3B 34 562 521 147 24 76 91 1 0.282 2.599 3.061 10.93
Jimmy Rollins PHI SS 33 600 546 148 15 81 61 28 0.271 2.407 2.869 10.24
Howie Kendrick LAA 2B 28 587 557 161 15 78 66 14 0.289 2.352 2.814 10.05
Drew Stubbs CIN OF 27 620 563 142 19 88 53 35 0.252 2.325 2.787 9.95
Nick Swisher NYY OF 31 632 544 146 26 86 85 2 0.269 2.286 2.748 9.81
Peter Bourjos LAA OF 25 580 546 150 16 79 50 28 0.275 2.254 2.716 9.70
Yadier Molina STL C 29 522 484 138 12 48 63 6 0.286 2.252 2.714 9.69
Rickie Weeks MIL 2B 28 600 541 143 25 90 68 10 0.264 2.128 2.590 9.25
Cameron Maybin SD OF 25 600 554 146 11 87 50 35 0.263 2.109 2.571 9.18
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 3B 27 565 507 148 20 74 72 4 0.292 2.079 2.541 9.07
Josh Willingham MIN OF 33 600 529 135 29 74 94 6 0.255 2.047 2.509 8.96
Kendrys Morales LAA 1B 29 500 469 137 24 62 82 1 0.292 2.045 2.507 8.95
Paul Goldschmidt CLE 1B 24 600 528 133 23 87 88 10 0.252 1.950 2.412 8.61
Ben Revere MIN OF 24 625 589 169 0 71 41 43 0.287 1.941 2.403 8.58
Matt Joyce TB OF 27 575 511 135 22 74 84 10 0.264 1.776 2.238 7.99
Carlos Lee HOU 1B/OF 36 600 553 154 21 66 90 3 0.279 1.744 2.206 7.87
Russell Martin NYY C 29 500 444 115 15 59 57 8 0.259 1.710 2.172 7.75
Chris Young ARZ OF 28 645 569 137 22 87 74 23 0.242 1.695 2.157 7.70
Alexei Ramirez CHW SS 30 659 615 169 17 81 73 10 0.275 1.656 2.118 7.56
Coco Crisp OAK OF 32 470 431 120 8 62 45 40 0.277 1.614 2.076 7.41
Jeff Francoeur KC OF 28 608 574 155 18 69 79 14 0.269 1.572 2.034 7.26
Mark Reynolds BAL 3B 28 617 540 123 36 84 87 8 0.228 1.571 2.033 7.26
Andre Ethier LAD OF 30 600 538 152 19 74 80 1 0.283 1.570 2.032 7.25
Ryan Howard PHI 1B 32 525 468 122 26 70 95 1 0.261 1.569 2.031 7.25
Jemile Weeks OAK 2B 25 650 605 169 3 76 58 30 0.279 1.531 1.993 7.12
Martin Prado ATL 3B,OF 29 600 561 168 14 76 59 4 0.300 1.509 1.971 7.04
Jason Heyward ATL OF 22 600 522 140 19 80 68 11 0.268 1.401 1.863 6.65
Jason Kipnis CLE 2B 25 550 505 135 17 82 65 14 0.267 1.396 1.858 6.63
Jose Tabata PIT OF 23 600 546 154 7 83 40 27 0.282 1.384 1.846 6.59
Alex Rios CHW OF 31 600 566 152 17 73 61 20 0.269 1.279 1.741 6.22
Chris Heisey CIN OF 27 500 467 121 27 72 72 8 0.259 1.244 1.706 6.09
J.D. Martinez HOU OF 24 600 557 156 17 70 86 1 0.281 1.225 1.687 6.02
Erick Aybar LAA SS 28 595 563 158 9 70 50 26 0.280 1.195 1.657 5.92
Mark Trumbo LAA 1B 26 550 521 135 25 62 83 9 0.258 1.148 1.610 5.75
Alex Presley PIT OF 26 525 496 143 10 65 54 20 0.288 1.114 1.576 5.63
Neil Walker PIT 2B 26 650 597 163 13 76 83 7 0.274 1.102 1.564 5.58
Seth Smith OAK OF 29 567 516 143 16 75 67 8 0.277 1.051 1.513 5.40
Carlos Beltran STL OF 35 520 458 130 19 64 70 5 0.284 1.002 1.464 5.23
Danny Espinosa WAS 2B 25 650 594 143 24 82 75 15 0.241 0.907 1.369 4.89
Ryan Doumit MIN C 31 466 430 119 15 39 53 1 0.276 0.865 1.327 4.74
J.P. Arencibia TOR C 26 500 463 105 25 48 79 1 0.227 0.835 1.297 4.63
Kurt Suzuki OAK C 28 534 495 127 14 56 57 3 0.257 0.830 1.292 4.61
Emilio Bonifacio MIA SS,3B,OF 27 600 547 148 3 76 40 36 0.271 0.807 1.269 4.53
Ryan Roberts ARZ 2B,3B 31 600 531 134 18 80 67 16 0.251 0.742 1.204 4.30
Marco Scutaro BOS SS 36 600 547 156 10 81 61 6 0.285 0.705 1.167 4.17
Jonathan Lucroy MIL C 26 500 469 125 11 46 58 3 0.265 0.704 1.166 4.16
Jason Bay NYM OF 33 550 487 129 18 69 71 11 0.264 0.684 1.146 4.09
Chris Iannetta LAA C 29 450 383 93 17 51 58 5 0.242 0.677 1.139 4.07
Austin Jackson DET OF 25 670 614 158 8 94 51 24 0.257 0.635 1.097 3.92
Dee Gordon LAD SS 24 575 551 150 0 70 29 45 0.272 0.621 1.083 3.87
Logan Morrison MIA OF 24 600 528 143 22 68 73 2 0.271 0.619 1.081 3.86
John Mayberry PHI OF 28 500 464 124 22 60 66 10 0.267 0.606 1.068 3.81
A.J. Pierzynski CHW C 35 504 484 137 9 41 51 1 0.283 0.577 1.039 3.71
Gaby Sanchez MIA 1B 28 620 555 150 19 68 76 3 0.269 0.538 1.000 3.57
Wilson Ramos WAS C 24 450 419 112 14 48 52 0 0.267 0.518 0.980 3.50
Kelly Johnson TOR 2B 30 640 573 142 20 82 63 15 0.248 0.515 0.977 3.49
Lucas Duda NYM OF 26 550 494 137 18 64 76 1 0.278 0.514 0.976 3.48
Mike Moustakas KC 3B 23 600 562 153 15 69 82 3 0.272 0.508 0.970 3.46
Brandon Belt SF 1B,OF 24 500 442 118 24 60 66 7 0.267 0.506 0.968 3.46
Nyjer Morgan MIL OF 31 520 489 141 3 69 39 26 0.289 0.453 0.915 3.27
Lucas Duda NYM 1B/OF 26 550 494 137 18 64 76 1 0.278 0.435 0.897 3.20
Delmon Young DET OF 26 550 526 145 16 63 81 2 0.277 0.397 0.859 3.07
Adam Lind TOR 1B 28 575 538 140 25 60 85 1 0.260 0.395 0.857 3.06
Dexter Fowler COL OF 26 600 528 144 9 88 46 15 0.273 0.394 0.856 3.05
Brennan Boesch DET OF 27 500 462 127 17 68 64 6 0.275 0.381 0.843 3.01
Derrek Lee FA 1B 36 536 486 132 21 66 71 2 0.272 0.377 0.839 2.99
J.J. Hardy BAL SS 29 550 512 136 22 71 74 0 0.266 0.341 0.803 2.87
Miguel Olivo SEA C 33 474 454 106 16 54 61 6 0.233 0.339 0.801 2.86
Jhonny Peralta DET SS,3B 30 595 550 148 18 65 84 0 0.269 0.288 0.750 2.68
Alfonso Soriano CHC OF 36 521 488 126 25 57 82 4 0.258 0.241 0.703 2.51
Geovany Soto CHC C 29 465 411 102 18 47 56 0 0.250 0.238 0.700 2.50
Ian Desmond WAS SS 26 625 589 157 12 64 55 22 0.267 0.225 0.687 2.45
Jason Kubel ARZ OF 30 540 491 132 21 57 83 1 0.269 0.212 0.674 2.41
John Buck MIA C 31 500 459 112 19 45 63 0 0.245 0.201 0.663 2.37
Jarrod Saltalamacchia BOS C 27 400 372 90 16 52 55 1 0.243 0.160 0.622 2.22
James Loney LAD 1B 28 609 561 156 12 61 74 6 0.279 0.112 0.574 2.05
David Freese STL 3B 29 500 465 135 13 55 74 1 0.290 0.054 0.516 1.84
Ryan Hanigan CIN C 31 400 352 98 7 45 49 0 0.279 0.035 0.497 1.77
Nolan Reimold BAL OF 28 500 452 118 20 60 68 9 0.260 0.013 0.475 1.70
Michael Brantley CLE OF 25 550 510 139 8 68 48 21 0.273 -0.040 0.422 1.51
Carlos Ruiz PHI C 33 451 401 111 7 46 44 1 0.276 -0.086 0.376 1.34
Omar Infante MIA 2B 29 600 567 165 8 66 58 5 0.292 -0.089 0.373 1.33
Aaron Hill ARZ 2B 30 590 553 142 16 68 68 13 0.256 -0.103 0.359 1.28
Colby Rasmus TOR OF 25 550 495 125 19 81 59 7 0.252 -0.128 0.334 1.19
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 3B 29 500 458 122 21 65 60 5 0.267 -0.150 0.312 1.11
Lorenzo Cain KC OF 26 550 512 143 5 67 47 19 0.280 -0.194 0.268 0.96
Carlos Quentin SD OF 29 525 481 118 25 63 84 2 0.246 -0.203 0.259 0.92
Yunel Escobar TOR SS 29 600 540 153 11 75 50 4 0.283 -0.210 0.252 0.90
Juan Pierre PHI OF 34 500 470 135 1 60 34 29 0.287 -0.256 0.206 0.74
Nick Hundley SD C 28 400 369 96 10 44 47 2 0.260 -0.355 0.107 0.38
Chase Headley SD 3B 28 600 538 144 9 63 61 16 0.268 -0.382 0.080 0.29
Johnny Damon FA OF 38 500 454 122 11 67 56 13 0.269 -0.399 0.063 0.22
Todd Helton COL 1B 38 501 433 127 12 58 61 0 0.293 -0.462 0.000 0.00
Jose Altuve HOU 2B 22 550 534 151 6 60 44 18 0.283 -0.483 -0.021 -0.08
Marlon Byrd CHC OF 34 555 527 150 12 64 51 4 0.284 -0.527 -0.065 -0.23
Vernon Wells LAA OF 33 500 470 121 21 59 63 8 0.258 -0.529 -0.067 -0.24
Josh Reddick OAK OF 25 625 580 147 15 82 66 4 0.253 -0.611 -0.149 -0.53
Rafael Furcal STL SS 34 465 426 121 9 62 40 15 0.283 -0.652 -0.190 -0.68
Adam LaRoche WAS 1B 32 550 494 128 19 61 74 1 0.259 -0.660 -0.198 -0.71
David DeJesus CHC OF 32 550 502 138 12 69 56 4 0.274 -0.692 -0.230 -0.82
David Murphy TEX OF 30 455 417 117 12 50 53 12 0.281 -0.714 -0.252 -0.90
Carlos Pena TB 1B 34 550 462 106 27 66 77 3 0.230 -0.767 -0.305 -1.09
Allen Craig STL OF 27 375 349 100 15 50 60 3 0.287 -0.787 -0.325 -1.16
Will Venable SD OF 450 413 378 96 13 51 46 25 0.253 -0.860 -0.398 -1.42
Bobby Abreu LAA OF 38 500 433 113 10 55 56 18 0.260 -0.908 -0.446 -1.59
Dustin Ackley SEA 2B 24 600 532 139 11 70 57 10 0.262 -0.921 -0.459 -1.64
Casey Blake CLE 1B/3B 38 500 454 120 15 66 65 1 0.264 -0.958 -0.496 -1.77
Cliff Pennington OAK SS 28 570 525 137 8 62 54 19 0.260 -1.004 -0.542 -1.94
Eric Thames TOR OF 25 450 421 112 14 66 60 2 0.265 -1.016 -0.554 -1.98
Denard Span MIN OF 28 525 479 136 3 65 38 15 0.285 -1.031 -0.569 -2.03
Brent Morel CWS 3B 25 550 521 141 12 60 57 7 0.271 -1.035 -0.573 -2.05



I ran a quick sum and indeed the total values of hitters 1 through 168 is $1899.85. And that’s close enough. Again, I didn’t inflate hitter values versus pitcher values at all, if you think these look a little lower than you expected. Adjusting the ratio is very easy.

I hope this has been helpful. Many of the members here at the Cafe run their own projections and values so if you have questions, it’s very easy to start up a conversation about it. Best of luck in your leagues this year.

Ed. Note: Several duplicate entries were removed from tables that may slightly affect the math of the output listed. However, the article is focused on the process, which is still sound, and not the results.

 
Jason posts regularly here at the cafe under the user name TheRock.
 
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3 Responses to “Calculating Player Values II”

  1. david h says:

    What population do you use to determine the mean and standard deviation? From your first article, it seems you used every player in the projection system. Knowing nothing about statistics, I can’t tell if this makes sense, but something seems odd about using several hundred hitters to determine the standard deviation and mean when only ~150 will be in starting rosters.

    ReplyReply
  2. ML610 says:

    Since this is an instructional tutorial, it might be helpful to run through the pitcher valuation as well, particularly in terms of dollar value; since it is the other half of the exercise.

    More importantly is that when you run this exercise on the pitchers, the dollar values for the top starting pitchers will exceed those of the top hitters, something that on the surface might seem unexpected given the typical draft position of hitters vs pitchers. The reason for this is that starting pitchers contribute (more often than not) more fully to 4 of the 5 standard roto categories, whereas there are few 4 or 5 category batting contributors. There are some other explanations for this as well.

    Just thought this would be something useful to the reader, as I know personally i struggled with the same in the beginning.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar TheRock says:

    Re: population used – good question, and you’ll hear different answers. The problem with only counting the top players, is that now you are essentially cutting the bottom half of your bell curve off. The standard deviation is intended to be applied to a normal distribution, so when you limit your population like this, you might see some unpredictable results. However, if you have a very complete set of projections like GF’s, many of the bottom players are part timers, or guys fighting for a roster spot who’s projections are mere conjecture if they happen to make the team. So I run my stats using about 250 hitters and 175 pitchers, this is about what number of full-time players of each. No guarantee that’s the “right” answer, that’s just what I usually do. For the article, I used the entire list.

    Not a bad idea on pitcher projections, I might write that part up as well.

    ReplyReply

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