RankingsMarch 10, 2012


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Cafeholic Rankings: Starting Pitcher (Part 2) - 7 comments

By Brendan Horton

So we looked at the Top 50 Starting Pitchers, and towards the end it was getting a little hairy. Which means when we go 50 deeper it’s getting into Cousin It and Chewbacca territory. Like your creepy uncle who looked like he was wearing a sweater as he lounged in his bathing suit by the pool. Now that you’ve been thoroughly scarred mentally with that image, let’s look at what the latter part of our SP field has to offer, shall we?

In case you’ve just joined us, we’ve been looking at a position by position ranking for the last several weeks, the archive of which can be found here: (C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF)!

STARTING PITCHERS

Natural Tier 9

RANKNAMETEAMMEANMEDIAN
51Colby LewisTEX50.2550
52Jhoulys ChacinCOL51.7548.5
53Ted LillyLAD52.0057
54Alexi OgandoTEX52.5056
55Chris SaleCHW53.2563
56Daniel BardBOS54.2562.5
57Scott BakerMIN54.5060
58Neftali FelizTEX54.5063.5
59Roy OswaltFA56.5062
60Derek HollandTEX57.2551
61Justin MastersonCLE59.0053

The glaring thing to me in this tier is the presence of the three converted relievers. It was like the rankers weren’t quite sure what to expect from them so they all ranked them immediately together. I personally don’t have much as far as expectations go in any of the trio, but if I had to roll the dice on any it would be Neftali Feliz. I think they’re doing good things with the pitching down there in Texas. They successfully converted C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to a legitimate staff ace, and it wouldn’t shock me if the same thing happened with Feliz, who is really a starter that just needs stretching out, in my mind. The other names that stick out to me are Ted Lilly, who apparently continues to get no respect, and Derek Holland, who was roughed up frequently in the early going last year, but finished the year after the All-Star break with 88.1 innings of 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP baseball, whiffing 80 batters and going 9-1. I think he has that ability in him to sustain over an entire season, and I think 2012 is where we’ll see him really emerge as a fantasy No. 2. Considering he has a MDP of 185, Holland is a guy I’m targeting in all of my leagues this season. Little risk, upside through the roof.

Natural Tier 10

RANKNAMETEAMMEANMEDIAN
62Ricky NolascoMIA60.0059
63Trevor CahillARI60.2560
64Edwin JacksonWAS61.7552
65Chad BillingsleyLAD62.5055
66Clay BuchholzBOS65.2568
67Javier VazquezMIA*65.2569
68Hiroki KurodaNYY66.0072
69Brandon McCarthyOAK66.2571
70Jon NieseNYM67.5061

Holy moley we have our first Met sighting! Ranked slightly below a guy who retired! Here’s my take on this tier. Brandon McCarthy. I could really just cut it off right there and I’d feel I was doing the group justice, but I guess I’ll elaborate. You can expect out of Brandon McCarthy what you’re praying for an absolute best out of Clay Buchholz, yet I can almost guarantee that Clay goes off your draft board well ahead of Brandon. I’m a believer in McCarthy’s new-found ability to keep men off base, and while his 6 K/9 isn’t getting anybody’s panties moist, it isn’t killing you like Mark Buehrle’s is. A low-3 ERA (he had a 2.86 FIP last year), 1.15 WHIP, and I’m happy to have this guy on my team for where he’s being drafted, while the rest of you get Nolasco’d (keep in mind Ricky’s K rate wasn’t much better than McCarthy’s last season, either). The only other real piece of potential here, and I only feel this way cause I’m a sucker, is Chad Billingsley. If he’d just stop walking everybody he’d be a serious monster. That may seem like a pipe dream, but keep in mind it wasn’t that long ago (okay, maybe it was) where that was the exact same sentiment felt about Ted Lilly. He was able to cut down on those walks and suddenly became a real threat and valuable fantasy asset. Bills, I wish I could quit you.

Natural Tier 11

RANKNAMETEAMMEANMEDIAN
71Tim StaufferSD70.0075
72Bud NorrisHOU70.7570
73Johan SantanaNYM71.7579
74Vance WorleyPHI72.5077
75Jair JurrjensATL72.7573
76Erik BedardPIT72.7575
77Jake PeavyCHW73.2576
78Mike MinorATL74.7563
79Brad PeacockOAK77.7567
80Mark BuehrleMIA79.0083

Do you smell that? That, my friends, is the rancid stench of desperation, and while it isn’t fully encompassing the room yet, it’s certainly starting to seep through the cracks in the door. Mostly a group of has-beens and never-wases, riddled by either injury or ineffectiveness, with people hoping that maybe this is the year their elbow doesn’t flare up, or they avoid the big inning, or any other cliched statement you’ve heard managers mutter over the years. Here’s the reality: this year probably isn’t the year. As a Mets fan, I’ve developed this as a mantra of sorts, and thus far it’s kept me from losing control of my faculties. I will say this, though. If you have deep enough rosters where you can platoon pitchers, Tim Stauffer at Petco Park is a beautiful thing. Last season all he did was post a 2.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 70 strikeouts in 94.2 IP. I have zero reason to believe he’ll perform any worse at home this season, as these were the expectations we had plagued ourselves with for Tim over the last several seasons. So start him at home and against his weaker road opponents in some of the NL’s bigger stadiums, and you have yourself a pretty valuable fantasy pitcher at a fraction of the cost. Bedard and Peavy are interesting plays. Effectiveness seems to rarely be their problem. Being able to trot out to the mound every five days, however; that’s a different story. If they log enough innings they’ll be extremely helpful to your team considering where they’re drafted. How confident are you that this is the year they log said innings though? Yeah, me neither. Can Vance Vance Revolution really continue the success he found last season in Philly? I want to say no, but really only because it’s hardly fair for the Phillies to have a No. 4 pitcher whose ERA approaches 3.00. I mean seriously.

Natural Tier 12

RANKNAMETEAMMEANMEDIAN
81Mike LeakeCIN81.0081
82Juan NicasioCOL83.0074
83Henderson AlvarezTOR83.2578
84Ryan DempsterCHC84.0089
85R.A. DickeyNYM86.7593
86Phil HumberCHW97.7591
87Homer BaileyCIN88.2588

Ryan Dempster is the Cubs’ ace. His ranking here tells you all you need to know about the expectations for the Cubs in 2012. Dempster was very good from ‘08 through ‘10, and one down year has suddenly really soured a lot of fantasy owners on him; but not me. His 3.91 FIP and 3.70 xFIP from a season ago are more indicative of what to expect from him in 2012 than his 4.80 ERA is. He still struck out 8.5 men per 9 innings, and if the Cubs got any better whatsoever (I’m not sure they did), this should be a nice rebound season for Dempster, who can be had very late in drafts. Henderson Alvarez looked good for most of his call-up late last season, but the AL East is a tough trial by fire, and whether or not it will completely destroy his fantasy value is yet to be seen. Juan Nicasio is an interesting player who is coming off neck surgery after fracturing the C-1 vertebrae on the wrong end of a line drive that hit him in the head last season. It’s a miracle he’s even walking, never mind competing for a rotation spot this spring. He strikes enough guys out to take a flyer on, but really, what he’ll be able to do is anybody’s guess.

Natural Tier 13

RANKNAMETEAMMEANMEDIAN
88Ivan NovaNYY90.2587
89Jonathan SanchezKC90.5084
90Ryan VogelsongSF90.7596
91Francisco LirianoMIN91.2585
92Luke HochevarKC92.0086
93Matt HarrisonTEX93.0094
94Josh CollmenterARI94.75100
95A.J. BurnettPIT95.0090
96Zach BrittonBAL96.5092
97Randy WolfMIL98.50102
98Edinson VolquezSD98.7595
99Carlos ZambranoMIA99.5099
100Felipe PaulinoKC100.2597

Francisco Liriano could provide tremendous value here if his shoulder doesn’t fall off from throwing too many sliders, and if he isn’t too fat or behind on his throwing schedule this season. We think of better times for Liriano in what feels like the distant past, but it wasn’t really that distant. He can still be the guy with the filthy slider who strikes batters out at alarming rates, or he can be the guy who issues six free passes a game and makes you hate everything about fantasy baseball. Chances are he’ll be one of those two things on somebody else’s team in my leagues. Hochevar finished 2011 strong, to the tune of a post-All Star line of 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 68 Ks in 79.1 IP with a 6-3 record. He looked like a mature pitcher at the end of last season, and I think we may have seen him elevate his game. Wouldn’t shock me to see him carry a mid-3 ERA all year with modest strikeout totals. The whirlwind that is Carlos Zambrano may recapture some of his old magic in Miami, or he may continue to smash water coolers in dugouts and make everybody including his teammates, coaches, and fantasy owners hate his guts. There’s a reason he barely cracked the Top 100. Which brings us to our lucky century mark man, Felipe Paulino. Now why are people abuzz about a guy who posted ERAs of 6.27, 5.11, 7.36, and 4.11 the past four years? A K-rate approaching 9.0 will makes people believe anything they want. That and a FIP nearly a full run lower than his ERA. We’ve seen Paulino harness his great stuff for starts and look unhittable, but he’s also prone to the meltdown, and until he’s able to have more good days than bad, he’ll be a fantasy headache.

So there you have it. 100 starting pitchers, most of which will either be spending time on your DL or your waiver wire. It’s a fickle thing, ain’t it? By my count we’re on the kick of this race, with only the crap shoot that is relief pitching and our acknowledgments left for our final installation, which you’re definitely not going to want to miss! Don’t forget to check back soon!

 
Brendan Horton is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Brendan in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of bigh0rt.
 
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7 Responses to “Cafeholic Rankings: Starting Pitcher (Part 2)”

  1. User avatar MaudDib says:

    Good articles so far. Small note, Edwin Jackson is in Washington now not St. Louis.

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar daullaz says:

    Thanks, that’s one I missed when I was editing.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar bigh0rt says:

    @MaudDib: This is what I get for compiling with a 102 fever. Thanks!

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar silverZ says:

    Well written and I love the rankings. Good stuff.

    ReplyReply
  5. cosmo4u says:

    i feel like I didnt see phil hughes on the list? am i missing something or jsut reading this post before my coffee

    ReplyReply
  6. User avatar bigh0rt says:

    @cosmo4u: He didn’t make the cut. I want to say he was somewhere in the 105 range, but the rankings at that point were very sporadic. If his ERA is at 4.50, which is a reasonable expectation, he’ll really need to get that K/9 back up near 8 to have value. It’s also possible he’s the odd man out in the rotation, though I would imagine that’s more likely going to be Garcia.

    ReplyReply
  7. cosmo4u says:

    @bigh0rt:

    thanks for the update and reply..very helpful

    ReplyReply

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