StrategyMay 28, 2011


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Double Dipper: The Best Laid Plans

By R.J. White

Juggling schedules, a mid-week DL stint and a miscalculation conspired to take away potential starts from both of our mixed league picks and one of our leads last week. Weekly-league owners are no stranger to any of those pitfalls that screw with planned two-start appearances. For us, Bartolo Colon saw his Sunday start pushed back a day so that CC Sabathia could pitch on regular rest. Sabathia owners were playing him anyway, so they don’t miss out, but Colon owners lose the chance at a Seattle start after his early-week meltdown against the Blue Jays. We’ll stick with him as a must-start this week.

Tom Gorzelanny was our pitcher that hit the DL, suffering left elbow inflammation after a forgettable start in Milwaukee. He lost the chance to face the Padres later in the week, another matchup blow to our picks. And Jake Peavy was the victim of a miscalculation on my part, as I momentarily forgot the White Sox were rolling with a six-man rotation. Thankfully, that experiment is nearly over.

It wasn’t all bad for our Double Dipper picks. Our other lead, Ryan Dempster, was excellent in his first start, validating the urge I had (that was eventually conquered) to put him in the “must-start” category. Unfortunately, that was about the only good thing that happened for us this week.

Two-start pitchers are below, with our picks following. Analysis will be up Saturday evening.

Must-Starts

Roy Halladay, PHI (@ WAS, @ PIT)
Jon Lester, BOS (vs CWS, vs OAK)
Trevor Cahill, OAK (vs NYY, @ BOS)
Chad Billingsley, LAD (vs COL, @ CIN)
Tim Hudson, ATL (vs SD, @ NYM)
Jake Peavy, CWS (@ BOS, vs DET)
Ervin Santana, LAA (@ KC, vs NYY)
Bartolo Colon, NYY (@ OAK, @ LAA)
C.J. Wilson, TEX (@ TB, @ CLE)
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (@ STL, vs COL)
Chris Carpenter, STL (vs SF, vs CHC)
Ian Kennedy, ARI (vs FLA, vs WAS)
Mat Latos, SD (@ ATL, vs HOU)
Erik Bedard, SEA (vs BAL, vs TB)

Other Double Dippers

PitcherStart 1Start 2% Y! Owned
Madison Bumgarner (SF)@ STLvs COL60%
Kyle McClellan (STL)vs SFvs CHC55%
Aaron Harang (SD)@ ATLvs HOU37%
Charlie Morton (PIT)@ NYMvs PHI27%
Jake Arrieta (BAL)@ SEAvs TOR24%
Fausto Carmona (CLE)@ TORvs TEX21%
Wade Davis (TB)vs TEX@ SEA21%
Derek Holland (TEX)@ TB@ CLE21%
Travis Wood (CIN)vs MILvs LAD20%
Chris Narveson (MIL)@ CIN@ FLA17%
Livan Hernandez (WAS)vs PHI@ ARI11%
R.A. Dickey* (NYM)vs PITvs ATL11%
Brian Duensing (MIN)@ DET@ KC10%
Brad Penny (DET)vs MIN@ CWS9%
Jason Hammel (COL)@ LAD@ SF8%
James McDonald (PIT)@ NYMvs PHI7%
Nick Blackburn (MIN)@ DET@ KC6%
Livan Hernandez (WAS)vs PHI@ ARI5%
Doug Fister (SEA)vs BALvs TB5%
Dillon Gee (NYM)vs PITvs ATL4%
Luke Hochevar (KC)vs LAAvs MIN3%
Jeff Francis (KC)vs LAAvs MIN3%
Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR)vs CLE@ BAL1%
Joe Saunders (ARI)vs FLA@ WAS1%
Chris Volstad (FLA)@ ARIvs MIL1%
Mitch Talbot (CLE)@ TORvs TEX1%
Aneury Rodriguez (HOU)@ CHC@ SD0%
Andy Sonnanstine (TB)vs TEX@ SEA0%

Questionable to start

Mixed League Pick
Ryan Vogelsong (SF)

Four weeks ago we took Vogelsong as one of our deep-league picks (he was owned in 2% of leagues at the time), saying “Vogelsong is nothing more than a deep sleeper right now, but his first start gives reason to sit up and take notice.” After allowing five runs in four innings during his second start, the San Francisco righty has caught fire, allowing a total of one run through his last four starts. That’s put his ERA at 1.77, as he’s only allowed eight runs in 40.2 innings this year. With a K:BB ratio near 3.0, he should be used regardless of matchups right now. We’re taking him over last week’s pick Bartolo Colon, who saw his Sunday start get pushed back a day, and Erik Bedard, who was our other deep league option the week we debuted Vogelsong in this column. All are great options for you next week.

Other Mixed League Options: Erik Bedard, Bartolo Colon.

Deep League Pick
Doug Fister (SEA)

Fister sported an extreme home/away split in 2010, and while his numbers by and large are similar to each other home and away this season, he does have a nicer ERA in Seattle, which is expected. In fact, overall Fister is pitching as well as he did last season, when he was a fine streamer in the right matchups. With two home starts on deck against the Orioles and Rays, I’d call this one of those “right matchup” weeks. After posting two great eight-inning starts, Fister allowed four runs in 6.2 innings against the Twins his last time out, but that came with a 6:0 K:BB ratio and no homers allowed. In fact, aside from those two eight-inning appearances prior to that start, where the only damage done to Fister was three solo home runs, he’s only allowed one home run all season. We’ll see if the Mariners can score him some runs against mediocre competition.

Other Deep League Options: James McDonald, Dillon Gee.

 
R.J. White is the head editor at the Cafe, writes for FanDuel and has previously written for FanHouse. Catch up with him in the forums under the name daullaz. Follow him on Twitter; don't follow him in real life.
 
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