30 Teams in 30 Days: New York Mets - 4 comments

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After a dismal, injury-dominated 2009, the Mets rebounded a little in 2010, but still finished below .500, a fact which ultimately led to the departure of both Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel. With reports hinting that Citi Field is in line to host the 2013 All-Star Game, will this provide a boost for a franchise that has consistently disappointed over recent seasons?

In “30 Teams in 30 Days,” the Fantasy Baseball Cafe will preview each team in Major League Baseball on a daily basis. In addition to projecting starting lineups, rotations and closing situations, the Cafe will identify potential targets for 2011 fantasy baseball drafts.
 
Offensive Starters
 

	2010 Stats	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB	AB	Notes
C	Josh Thole	.277	.357	.366	17	3	17	1	202	Will share time with Ronny Paulino
1B	Ike Davis	.264	.351	.440	73	19	71	3	523
2B	Luis Castillo	.235	.337	.267	28	0	17	8	247
3B	David Wright	.283	.354	.503	87	29	103	19	587
SS	Jose Reyes	.282	.321	.428	83	11	54	30	563
CF	Carlos Beltran	.255	.341	.427	21	7	27	3	220
OF	Jason Bay	.259	.347	.402	48	6	47	10	348
OF	Angel Pagan	.290	.340	.425	80	11	69	37	579

 
Unsettled: Ronny Paulino is suspended until April 10th but will likely share catching duties with Thole when he returns; neither will be fantasy-relevant in standard leagues. Beltran and Pagan may battle for the CF role in Spring Training, but both will almost certainly start in the OF when healthy. The most unsettled position is 2B, where Daniel Murphy has every chance to oust Luis Castillo (whose contract the Mets would love to get rid of).
 
Target: Wright and Reyes will go early. Beltran and Bay are former elite OF who are coming off injuries, and will be worth a risk if they drop far enough. Pagan is a good source of cheap steals late in the draft. But the player I like the best to target is Ike Davis. He made 1B his own in 2010 and hit a healthy 19 HRs (four of which came in the season’s final month, when his OPS was a juicy .952). Playing at a deep position, he won’t be worth using at 1B, but if your league uses the CI roster spot, then Davis is an ideal candidate to fill it.
 
The Rotation
 

2010 Stats	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	IP	Notes
Johan Santana	11-9	2.98	1.18	144	55	199.0	Injured – estimated return: June
Mike Pelfrey	15-9	3.66	1.38	113	68	204.0
Jon Niese	9-10	4.20	1.46	148	62	173.2
R.A. Dickey	11-9	2.84	1.19	104	42	174.1
Chris Young	2-0	0.90	1.05	15	11	20.0	w/SD
Jenrry Mejia	0-4	4.62	1.69	22	20	39.0
Chris Capuano	4-4	3.95	1.30	54	21	66.0	w/Mil

 
Unsettled: Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey seem assured of their places, and Chris Young is very likely to start there as well. Which leaves Mejia, Capuano and possibly Dillon Gee battling out for the final one. With two months before Johan returns, there is much incentive for these guys to establish themselves in the rotation.
 
Target: Pelfrey had easily his best season to date with the Mets, but the K-rate is still far too low. Johan’s injury and declining K-rate make him a risky pick – someone will surely reach for him on name value before I would take the plunge. Of all these guys, I like Chris Young’s chances to have a fantasy-worthy season more than anyone: he has always had a good K/9, and, as long as the injury is behind him, he has the potential to thrive in Citi Field.
 
The 8th and 9th Innings
 

2010 Stats	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	IP	Notes
Francisco Rodriguez	25	2.20	1.15	67	21	57.1
Bobby Parnell	0	2.83	1.40	33	8	35.0

 
Chasing Saves: K-Rod has fallen from grace sharply since being drafted as a top-four closer only a couple of seasons ago. Things came to a head halfway through 2010, with his much publicized dispute with the Mets front office. Of all the players, the change at the top is most likely to benefit K-Rod, and, if he can only keep himself out of trouble, the talent is still there to make him worthy of a top-10 closer spot in your rankings.
 
Final Thoughts
 
It is highly unlikely that the Mets will compete for a postseason spot in 2011. From a fantasy perspective, however, after Wright and Reyes are off the board, there are several sleepers worthy of attention later on in drafts. My personal favourites are Ike Davis and Chris Young, but Bay, Beltran, Pelfrey, Niese and Pagan could all outperform their draft spot. Don’t expect too much, and you may be pleasantly surprised.
 
Join us tomorrow for our look at the Philadelphia Phillies.
 

 
Chris Routledge is one of a growing number of Brits infiltrating the Cafe, and is the double reigning champion of the H2H World Series, much to the chagrin of token Cafe Padres fan, wrveres. Catch up with him in the Cafe under the username chris8.
 

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