SleepersApril 14, 2011


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Sleeper Watch

By David Bay

Travis Wood toed the rubber for us on Wednesday and pitched well. He limited the Friars to one run in 6 2/3 innings, exiting the game with a 2-1 lead. Nick Masset entered in the 8th and promptly gave away the lead, and eventually the game. This story is becoming all too familiar and is part of the reason our win total is entrenched at one. Wood certainly pitched well enough to win, but it doesn’t always work out as it should. We’ll look to get back on the win train with Bruce Chen today. Let’s take a look at Wood’s full line:

WIPERERABBHWHIPKK:BB
06.211.35351.2051.67

Season Totals:

WIPERERABBHWHIPKK:BB
152.2254.1126651.66441.69

On Friday we’ll be treated to a full slate of games to kick of the weekend. There are a few good streaming options, but nobody jumps off the page as a sure bet. Regardless, we’ll pick one, but this might be a day you stay away from streaming.

Chris Narveson (MIL) @ WAS – 41%

Narveson has had his way with opposing hitters in his first two starts, not allowing a run. He’s shut down NL rivals Atlanta and Chicago, striking out 14 in 13 innings while posting a WHIP of 1.00. Naveson’s ownership rate sits at 41%, largely due to a glowing endorsement he received on Yahoo’s front page. I’m still not quite ready to drink their Kool-Aid. Washington’s lineup isn’t terrible, and Narveson has a history of being streaky. As you can see, he has the propensity to throw a gem or two and then get hit hard, final Jeopardy question hard. He’s not a bad bet to continue on his hot streak, but I don’t want him in my lineup when it turns ugly.

Brandon McCarthy (OAK) vs DET – 2%

McCarthy won the fifth starter job for Oakland, beating out Rich Harden, which wasn’t difficult since Harden is hurt. Again. So far he’s taken the job and run with it, performing well in both of his starts. He’s actually been better than his numbers suggest, as some errors have cost him a win. Even so, he has 3.52 ERA so far and has only walked one batter (some of our other streamers could learn a few things from him about free passes). The negative about McCarthy is his lack of strikeouts. He doesn’t miss many bats and depends on some luck and good fielding, which he hasn’t gotten yet from the normally solid Oakland defense. So instead of streaming him, we’ll take…

Streaming Sleepers Pick

J.A. Happ (HOU) vs SD – 15%

I don’t know why Happ’s ownership rate is so low. He has been plagued by some injuries, but what do you have to lose by picking him up in the last round? He’s 20-10 in his career with a 3.38 ERA, and that’s with the majority of his starts coming at Citizens Bank, where a fly ball ends up in the 15th row of the bleachers. We all know Victorino doesn’t actually have 20-HR power. If Happ is able to stay healthy, I see him being owned in most leagues eventually. He faces San Diego Friday, a team that struggled to hit Travis Wood today, a pitcher with a similar repertoire to Happ. Also in Happ’s favor is his career ERA or 0.00 against the Padres. It’s only 10 innings worth, so the sample size it small, but it definitely doesn’t make me fearful of streaming him. He faces Aaron Harang, who is off to a good start but has been much luckier than good this season. I like Happ in this one, maybe he’ll even pick up a win; nah, Brandon Lyon will surely blow it.

 
David Bay has a BA in Economics from San Jose State University and has been playing fantasy sports since 2004. You can keep track of his work at streamingsleepers.wordpress.com or on the forums under the username BayBear.
 
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