SleepersApril 17, 2011


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Sleeper Watch - 3 comments

By David Bay

We had another successful stream on Saturday from Kyle McClellan, with my only complaint being the lack of contribution to our strikeout totals, as we only scored 2 Ks on the night. But who am I to complain about the rest of his line?

WIPERERABBHWHIPKK:BB
17.011.29060.8622.0

Season Totals:

WIPERERABBHWHIPKK:BB
376.2303.5229841.47501.72

Now that we are starting to build a substantial stat line, I can make some comparisons so we’ll get an idea of what we’re really getting out of our streamers. 76 innings pitched is close to half a season for most starters not named Roy Halladay, and we’ve accumulated that in less than two weeks. For fun I’ll post our stats next to the number one rated Yahoo pitcher.

Jered Weaver

WERAWHIPK
41.300.8031

WERAWHIPK
33.521.4750

Weaver has won one more game than our streamers, but that is largely due to some bad luck for us. Obviously his ratios are lower, but his sample size is much smaller and those should normalize over time. Now for the interesting part: while most of our pitchers are not owned due to their lack of strikeouts, as a collective unit they are blowing away the rest of the league with almost twice as many punch outs. We’ll return to analysis later in the season and get a more in-depth look. Now on to Monday’s streamers.

Jason Vargas (SEA) vs (DET) – 5%

Vargas is always going to be a strong play when he’s pitching at home, regardless of the opponent (career 3.12 ERA at SAFECO Field, 2.86 ERA last season). Vargas was fantastic in his last start, going 6 2/3 innings while only allowing one run and striking out seven. Vargas had almost the exact same line in his first start, and he would be having a nice season if it weren’t for his seven earned runs allowed in his second start. As a Mariner he will always struggle for run support, and since we’re trying to catch up to Weaver’s win total …

Streaming Sleepers Pick:

Travis Wood (CIN) vs PIT – 46%

Yep, we’re hopping back on the Big Red Machine. It worked out well last time, although we lost our win on a blown save. With Cincinnati’s offense firing on all cylinders, Wood should get plenty of run support and be able to pick up a win with a quality start. Pittsburgh has some talented young hitters, but their offense has sputtered lately. Wood’s only start against the Pirates came last year when he allowed just two hits in seven shutout innings, and I like his chances to continue dominating them. Wood’s season is a mirror image of Vargas’, with a very bad start sandwiched between two great ones. Wood has a better chance of winning though, so we’ll go with him on a streaming depleted travel Monday.

 
David Bay has a BA in Economics from San Jose State University and has been playing fantasy sports since 2004. You can keep track of his work at streamingsleepers.wordpress.com or on the forums under the username BayBear.
 
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3 Responses to “Streamers 4/18”

  1. tianyi86 says:

    Maybe it’s just me, but the streamers doesn’t seem to work out that great collectively. You made the point that the low win total is “unlucky,” but then, the 3.52 ERA is extremely lucky, given the 1.47 whip. And the low K/9 is bound to hurt you in roto.

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  2. User avatar BayBear says:

    You’re correct about the roto, this strategy is much more effective in a matchup league where there is no IP cap. The high whip is due in large part to a couple of the streamers having Whips above 2, and their ERA’s were 9.00/13.50/5.40. So those guys didn’t get lucky, but they did really hurt our collective Whip, which is a lot harder to lower than ERA. A Whip of 1.00 is considered fantastic, but once your Whip is elevated, it takes a lot of innings at 1.00 to bring it down. Of course I have all the individual outing’s stats in front of me so it’s easier to see what’s going on, and later into the season I’ll run a lot more stats to truly see if our pitchers are getting lucky. It’s possible they are since a lot of the time I’m streaming a park and an opponent, not just a starting pitcher. I’m still not sure of how effective streaming will be at the end of the season, but that’s why I’m trying it out to see how it goes, hopefully it goes well. Thanks for reading.

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  3. User avatar BayBear says:

    As I was writing my article I came across a good example of how Whip is harder to lower. Pineda went 6 innings on Sunday, allowing 1 earned, with a Whip of 1.17. Our streamers cumulative ERA dropped from 3.52 to 3.38, a pretty big drop. Despite the good Whip, our ratio only went from 1.47 to 1.45. Same phenomenon when Bruce Chen was brilliant, 8 IP 0ER Whip 0.88, ERA from 4.11 to 3.59 and Whip from 1.66 to 1.56.

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