StrategyMarch 17, 2010


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Median Draft Position (MDP) Report - 7 comments

By rookies and cream

Welcome to the first edition of the MDP report this year. If you would like to read about the rationale for median draft position and how it could be utilized to keep you ahead of your competition, you can check out an article I wrote last year here. In this edition, I will present some of the latest draft trends and list a number of overvalued and undervalued players according to the main drafting sites (Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN). The full MDP list can be found here.

Let’s begin with some draft trends. So, which players are moving up and which are moving down draft boards?

Gaining Steam

Roy Halladay – Up 3% in the last week and 39% since mid-December makes Halladay the clear No. 2 and a solid mid-second round pick.

Cliff Lee – Up 11% in the last week and 15% since mid-December brings Lee into the second tier of starting pitchers.

B.J. Upton – Up 3% in the last week and a whopping 47% since mid-December, drafters are anticipating big things (and more pop) from Bossman Jr. this year.

Brett Anderson – Though down 2% this week, Anderson’s MDP has increased by 39% (86 spots) since mid-December.

Billy Wagner – Up 7% in the past week and 28% since mid-December puts Wagner solidly in the middle of the second tier of closers.

Julio Borbon – Another of our favorite sleepers is up 11% in the last week and 37% since mid-December.

Jason Heyward – Up 5.2% in the last week and 34% since January 1, drafters are hoping that this “generational talent” breaks camp.

Drew Stubbs – Up 9% in the last week, drafters may have to reach a little (especially on CBS) to grab this potential 15/30 stud.

On the Decline

Mark Reynolds – Stays even this week, but down 56% since mid-December, drops Reynolds out of the second round.

Victor Martinez – Although he is still the second highest drafted catcher by about a round, V-Mart is down about 4% in the past week and 45% since mid-December.

Brian Roberts – Down 9% in the past week and 20% since mid-December, drafters seem to be fearful of B-Rob’s chronic back condition.

Adam Dunn – Down nearly 8% in the past week and 19% since mid-December.

Miguel Tejada – Down about 9% in the past week and an incredible 66% since mid-December. This seems trend seems to happen every year with Tejada …

Rafael Furcal – Down 11% in the past week drops Furcal down to the fifth tier of shortstops.

Jermaine Dye – Down 13% in the last week and an unbelievable 70% since mid-December, drafters are beginning to wonder if Dye will ever get signed.

Let’s next examine some players whose ADP from one of the main drafting sites (Yahoo, CBS, or ESPN) differ from their MDP. This is a way to identify players that are undervalued and overvalued from site to site. For example, Joey Votto’s ADP in Yahoo leagues last year was 123, nearly 40 spots later than his MDP. Those of you in Yahoo leagues may have been fortunate to land him late.

So, who are this year’s undervalued and overvalued players? Below are a bunch organized according to drafting site.

Yahoo

Overvalued

Troy Tulowitzki (Yahoo ADP = 10) – According to MDP, Tulo is being drafted about six spots too high on Yahoo. Interestingly, Tulo was on this same list last year, so Yahoo may be on to something.

Chris Carpenter (Yahoo ADP = 35.6) – Carpenter is being drafted about 19 spots earlier than his MDP in Yahoo leagues. Note that this is before Haren, Santana, Verlander, and Wainwright.

Shin-Soo Choo (Yahoo ADP = 52.7) – I’m a big fan of Choo, but he is being drafted about 19 spots earlier than his MDP on Yahoo, before Granderson, Bay, and Markakis.

Denard Span (Yahoo ADP = 76.8) – Before Ethier, Adam Jones, Manny, and Hamilton. Really? Span is being drafted almost 50 spots too early on Yahoo.

Ryan Dempster (Yahoo ADP = 112.5) – Dempster is being drafted about 55 spots earlier than his MDP on Yahoo, before Peavy, Weaver, Lackey, Shields, and Garza. Other overvalued starters on Yahoo include Baker (Yahoo ADP = 106.8), Feliz (Yahoo ADP = 147.2), Floyd (Yahoo ADP = 135.2), Porcello (Yahoo ADP = 146.5), and Wolf (Yahoo ADP = 171.3).

Undervalued

Prince Fielder (Yahoo ADP = 14.1) – Fielder is generally a mid-first round pick, not an early second round selection as indicated on Yahoo where he is being taken about six picks later than his MDP.

Mark Reynolds (Yahoo ADP = 46.2) – As I indicated earlier, Reynolds’ MDP has slipped to the early third round. Yahoo, however, has him in the mid-fourth round, about 20 spots later than his MDP and after Youkilis, Sandoval, and even Morales.

Andre Ethier (Yahoo ADP = 85.1) – Ethier is being drafted nearly 23 spots later than his MDP in Yahoo leagues after McCutchen, Abreu, and Span.

Carlos Quentin (Yahoo ADP = 181) – Quentin is a top 100 pick on other sites but is being drafting a whopping 83 spots later than his MDP in Yahoo leagues. This is the greatest discrepancy for any player on any of the three sites.

Stephen Drew (Yahoo ADP = 184.6) – Would you draft Marco Scutaro before Drew? Well, at nearly 62 spots later than his MDP, drafters on Yahoo are.

Other Yahoo undervalued notables include David Aardsma (Yahoo ADP = 202.4), Chris Davis (Yahoo ADP = 228.4), and Rajai Davis (Yahoo ADP = 211.3), and Garrett Jones (Yahoo ADP = 223.7).

CBS

Overvalued

Joe Mauer (CBS ADP = 5.11) – Mauer is a mid-first round pick according to CBS, about nine spots earlier than his MDP. On average, he is being selected before Braun, Utley, Kemp, and Fielder on CBS.

Lots of closers (yet again!) – Francisco Rodriguez (CBS ADP = 87.1), Brian Wilson (CBS ADP = 95.39), Brian Fuentes (CBS ADP = 99.21), Huston Street (CBS ADP = 100.72), and Ryan Franklin (CBS ADP = 120.36) are examples of closers being drafted WAY too early in CBS leagues, 17 to 44 spots earlier than their MDPs.

Jake Peavy (CBS ADP = 65.85) – I really like Peavy this year, but if you want him on CBS, be prepared to reach as he is being selected nearly 30 spots earlier than his MDP, before Hamels, Hanson, and Gallardo.

Scott Kazmir (CBS ADP = 111.28) – Another starter that CBS likes more than most. Kaz is being selected about 65 spots earlier than his MDP in CBS leagues. Other overvalued starters on CBS include Roy Oswalt (CBS ADP = 129.54), Carlos Zambrano (CBS ADP = 123.64), Ben Sheets (CBS ADP = 164.53), Daisuke Matsuzaka (CBS ADP = 172.78), and Francisco Liriano (CBS ADP = 168.9).

Undervalued

Justin Upton (CBS ADP = 31.74) – J-Up is typically a mid-to-late second rounder. But in CBS leagues, he is being drafted about 11 spots later than his MDP, in the mid-third round.

Jayson Werth (CBS ADP = 66.54) – Werth is being drafted nearly two rounds (23 spots) later than his MDP on CBS, after B.J. Upton and Manny.

Nelson Cruz (CBS ADP = 87.65) – I guess CBS doesn’t like 25/25 candidates as Cruz is also being drafted about 21 spots later than his MDP.

Other CBS undervalued notables include a couple of first baseman, Billy Butler (CBS ADP = 102.55) and Carlos Pena (CBS ADP = 107.29), Jason Kubel (CBS ADP = 160.87), and Elvis Andrus (CBS ADP = 138.83).

ESPN

Overvalued

Ichiro Suzuki (ESPN ADP = 29.1) – Ichiro is going a bit early, about 12 spots too early, in ESPN leagues, before Granderson, Werth, and even Sizemore.

Starting pitching – Though it isn’t as striking as past years, several starting pitchers including Jon Lester (ESPN ADP = 41.2), Cliff Lee (ESPN ADP = 41.4), Yovani Gallardo (ESPN ADP = 64.6), Brandon Webb (ESPN ADP = 86.6), and Tim Hudson (ESPN ADP = 1553) are going a bit earlier than their MDPs in ESPN leagues.

Howie Kendrick (ESPN ADP = 108.6) – Usually, it is Yahoo that overvalues Kendrick, but ESPN is guilty this time. Kendrick is being drafted about 31 spots earlier than his MDP in ESPN leagues.

Johnny Damon (ESPN ADP = 99.2) – Last year, Damon was drafted about 25 spots earlier than his MDP in ESPN leagues. This year, it is nearly 45!

Erick Aybar (ESPN ADP = 154.8) – I really don’t understand this one. In ESPN leagues, Aybar is being drafted about 62 spots earlier than his MDP, before some mid-tier closers (e.g., Fuentes, Soriano, and Wagner) and other really useful middle infielders such as Ian Stewart.

Todd Helton (ESPN ADP = 165.9) – Helton is being drafted about four rounds (48 spots) earlier than his MDP in ESPN leagues. The same goes for Hideki Matsui (ESPN ADP = 174.1).

Undervalued

Troy Tulowitzki (ESPN ADP = 22.4) – Tulo is going about six spots later than his MDP in ESPN leagues, at the end of the second round.

Ian Kinsler (ESPN ADP = 24.4) – Also undervalued by ESPN last year, Kinsler is being drafted about eight spots lower than his MDP.

Victor Martinez (ESPN ADP = 47.2) – ESPN is the only site in which V-Mart is drafted after McCann. McCann’s ADP at ESPN is nearly identical to his MDP, but VMart’s is about 15 lower than his.

Aaron Hill (ESPN ADP = 73.7) – It seems that ESPN does not like middle infielders (except Erick Aybar for some reason). Hill’s ADP at ESPN is about two rounds (24 spots) later than his MDP. Ditto for Dan Uggla (ESPN ADP = 112.7), Ian Stewart (ESPN ADP = 167.8), Rickie Weeks (ESPN ADP = 204), and Miguel Tejada (ESPN ADP = 209.4)

Kurt Suzuki (ESPN ADP = 220.9) – I’m not as high on Suzuki as most, but drafters on ESPN are selecting him way too late, about 71 spots lower than his MDP.

Other ESPN undervalued notables include Adrian Beltre (ESPN ADP = 207.4), Garrett Jones (ESPN ADP = 209.7), and Corey Hart (ESPN ADP = 222.4).

That’s it for now. Keep an eye out for future MDP updates. I will likely be updating the list two more times before Spring Training is through. Although much is already established, you should expect a little movement as roles become more defined and a few more players unfortunately get injured.

 
rookies and cream is an avid Mets fan and is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe.
 
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7 Responses to “Median Draft Position (MDP) Report”

  1. User avatar AquaMan2342 says:

    Drew Stubbs is gaining steam! I’d like to think I am partially responsible!

    Also, I’ll bet Span lives up to (or comes close) to his Yahoo ADP.

    ReplyReply
  2. Cafe bet? What do you consider close?

    ReplyReply
  3. Is anyone else having problems accessing the full MDP site? If anyone else could post it, I would be greatly appreciative. I have my draft on Tuesday, and this helped ENORMOUSLY last year. Thanks!

    ReplyReply
  4. BisonsBBall says:

    Yeah I can’t view it either.

    ReplyReply
  5. User avatar AussieDodger says:

    “”Jason Heyward – Up 5.2% in the last week and 34% since January 1, drafters are hoping that this “generational talent” breaks camp.”"

    LOL

    ReplyReply
  6. Stingers56 says:

    Nice work. Always good to know how the Romans are acting in Rome.

    Regarding Heyward, the only thing that will keep him from breaking camp in the minors is the sense of finality Cox’s last year brings. Other than that, ATL will do what everybody does, send him down until June for the extra year before arbitration.

    First post. Been onto this site since last year. Good stuff. As an FYI, I’m making your MDP analysis the centerpiece all the other info I include revolves around. I’m fairly confident it’s a good guide and a nice leg to my triangulation theory. The other two legs being trusted advice and player performance history.

    ReplyReply

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