StrategyAugust 1, 2009

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Double Dipper: Young Guns A Blazin’

By Sean Acey

Welcome to the next installment of the Double Dipper series, where we check out the upcoming week’s two-start pitchers and give weekly-league owners some strategic pickups to give you a leg up over your opponents. Michael is out this week so I’ll be taking the reins. Recapping last week’s selections, Jamie Moyer blanked the Diamondbacks (W, 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K) while Clay Buchholz fared pretty well against Oakland (ND, 5.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K). Moyer won’t be getting another start this week due to the Phillies acquisition of Cliff Lee, but Buchholz is set to square off against the Orioles on Sunday.

Now on to next week — we’ll take a look at the two-start pitchers that are available in 50-95% of Yahoo leagues. Then, I’ll analyze the best options on this list and give you my thoughts on who is worth a spot start next week. If you like streaming in your weekly-lineup league or you’ve simply have an extra roster spot to burn, check out our suggestions below.

PitcherStart 1Start 2% Owned
Randy Wells@CIN@COL50%
Hiroki Kurodavs MILvs ATL28%
Brett Anderson*vs TEX@KC24%
Scott Feldman@OAK@LAA24%
Jose Contrerasvs LAAvs CLE17%
Manny Parra*@LAD@HOU17%
Brad Penny@TB@NYY15%
Kenshin Kawakami@SD@LAN13%
Jamie Moyer*vs COLvs FLA12%
Luke Hochevarvs SEAvs OAK10%
Mat Latosvs ATLvs NYN9%
Tim Stauffervs ATLvs NYN5%
Chris Tillman@DET@TOR5%


Mixed League Pick

Luke Hochevar
Hochevar is slowly but surely cashing in on the potential that made him the Royals’ number-one overall selection in the 2006 amateur draft. In the month of July he has shown excellent control, allowing only 4 BBs in 31.1 IP to go along with 34 Ks (9.76 K/9). Although the ERA for the month may look ugly at 5.74, the back-to-back gems against two menacing offenses in Tampa Bay and Texas shows you what he can do when he is on his A-game.

This week Hochevar gets a great draw as he will face two of the league’s worst offenses in Seattle and Oakland. Both of these starts will come at home where Hochevar has seemingly been more comfortable, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. As if this isn’t enough, he will face the beatable Ryan Rowland-Smith and Gio Gonzalez, who sports a 7.38 ERA. While the Royals are no offensive juggernaut, Hochevar has been granted the most run support on the staff, just shy of five runs per start. This is as good a week as any to pick up a win or two along with solid ratios with this young pitcher.

Deep League pick (Owned <10%)
Mat Latos
Sure, he plays for the lowly Padres, but this hard-throwing rookie right-hander deserves your attention. Through his first three trips in the bigs, he has shown the ability to strike guys out (7.02 K/9) while avoiding free passes (2.16 BB/9). The only thing to be worried about is the flyball tendency (58.5 FB%) which will lead to the longball — his nemesis thus far. Although the Padres are sure to hold Latos to a strict pitch count, as long as he pitches efficiently he will continue to be effective.

This week Latos will get his first look at the Braves and the Mets, two offenses in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. Both of these starts will be at the pitcher’s paradise that is Petco Park. Latos’ mound counterparts aren’t too intimidating in either of these matchups as Kenshin Kawakami and Oliver Perez have both been pretty erratic this year. Wins this week for Latos aren’t far-fetched, but him improving your ratios while dishing out strikeouts is a better certainty. Make sure to keep your eye on him as he could prove valuable down the stretch.

Here is perlick29 with his waiver wire spot starters for Sunday’s action. You can follow the action daily at Perlick’s Waiver Wire Spot Starters for 2009!

1. Jon Garland, Ari – Road vs. NYM (Mike Pelfrey)

There aren’t very good options for an August Sunday. The only exception is Garland, who is coming on strong in the second half of the season. He has six consecutive quality starts. He even has a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio in that time. On the downside, he’s not much of a K pitcher and Arizona’s run support is spotty at best. Perhaps the best way to determine if this will be another QS is to look at the opponent. The Mets’ offense is so pathetic they are heralding Angel Berroa as their new offensive weapon. He was playing in Staten Island a couple of weeks ago. There’s Angel Pagan who’s no devil with the stick, Old Man Castillo, Alex Cora, whatever they put out at catcher, and washed up Fernando Tatis. There’s also Daniel Murphy whom I have nothing but negative things to say about his game.

So all in all this is a terrible lineup. If Garland pitches around Wright and Francoeur, he’ll be fine.

-Prediction- ND, 7IP, 7H, 2ER, 1BB, 3K

Sunday’s Hail Mary

1. Bronson Arroyo – Home vs. Rockies
2. Collin Balester – Road vs. Pirates
3. Ian Snell – Road vs. Rangers

Good luck this weekend. We’re in the home stretch. In the meantime and in-between time, I’m Paul Erlick. Bye now.

Sean Acey is an avid Phillies fan who again thinks this is the year. You can catch up with Sean in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of smoovethug.
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