StrategyMay 23, 2009

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Double Dipper: A Vet and a Rookie

By R.J. White

Time for another edition of Double Dipper. First, let’s look at the two-start pitchers that are available in 50-95% of Yahoo leagues. Then, I’ll analyze the best options on this list and give you my thoughts on who is worth a spot start next week. If you like streaming in your weekly-lineup league or you’ve simply have an extra roster spot to burn, check out our suggestions below.

PitcherStart 1Start 2% Owned
Dallas BradenvSea@Tex16%
Fausto CarmonavTBvNYY35%
Jorge de la RosavLADvSD15%
Doug DavisvSDvAtl14%
Jeremy GuthrievTorvDet22%
Matt HarrisonvNYYvOak12%
Phil Hughes@Tex@Cle17%
Sean MarshallvPitvLAD6%
Jamie MoyervFlavWas11%
Brad Penny@Min@Tor10%
Jonathan SanchezvAtlvStL33%
Eric Stults@Col@ChC12%

Mixed League Pick
Doug Davis
While not a particularly great option, I feel Davis has the best chance to succeed out of all the streaming candidates. He’s pitching at home, and his home/road splits suggest this is a key piece of information. Davis has a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in five home starts so far this season. He’s facing a couple of mediocre offenses, which is the other main reason you might want to roll the dice on him. Davis has a history of success against the Padres, and their best slugger (Adrian Gonzalez) has a pedestrian six hits in 24 at bats against him, with only one extra base hit (a double) to his credit. Later in the week, Davis will take on the Braves. He’s already had one great start against them this year, going six innings with a 3.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. It will be a little harder this time around, but Davis still has a shot at a quality start both here and in the San Diego game.

Second Option and Deep League Pick
Kris Medlen
It’s going to be hard for a lot of owners to pull the trigger on Medlen this week after he got torched in his first major-league start. He did such a fantastic job in Triple-A this year that we have to believe he’s better than that initial outing would indicate. Now that he’s got the first-start jitters out of the way, he’ll travel to San Francisco to take on Tim Lincecum and the Giants. I think there will be a lot less pressure on him this game, and this will allow him to relax and go back to dominating hitters like he did in the minors. The Giants offense really isn’t much more than a glorified Triple-A team anyway. Look for him to put together a good five or six innings against them. Later in the week, he’ll square off against Arizona in the desert. The Diamondbacks lineup presents a few more challenges, but Medlen should still be able to hold his own and rack up a decent number of strikeouts.

Next up is perlick29 with his waiver wire spot starters for Sunday’s action. You can follow the action daily at Perlick’s Waiver Wire Spot Starters for 2009! Here’s Perlick with his picks for this Sunday.

Sunday May 24th

1. Josh Outman, Oak – Home vs. Ari (Jon Garland)

For most of the season, Josh Outman has been a reliever/swingman/poor starter. But coming up through the ranks of college and the minors, he was a pretty highly prized prospect. The A’s have been patient with him so far and haven’t pushed him too hard, and the results are starting to show. A lefty who is blessed with mid 90’s heat, most people think he’ll eventually end up in the bullpen. Watching his last two starts, it is clear he has the stuff to succeed in the rotation, especially while some of the other young A’s are experiencing growing pains. On Sunday, he faces the Diamondbacks; I don’t think there’s been a more disappointing team in the league this year. For some reason they can’t hit the ball, except for the surging Justin Upton. I’d look for another six inning beauty out of Outman in this one.

-Prediction – W, 6IP, 4H, 2ER, 2BB, 5K

2. Dontrelle Willis Det – Home vs. Col (Jason Hammel)

It’s tough to make a pick like this. There just seems to be so much uncertainty around Dontrelle these days. Whether last start was just a nice trip down memory lane not to be duplicated, or a sign of things to come since he’s still only 27, I really don’t have the answer. But I will play the odds in recommending him against the Rockies away from Coors. The media loves the guy because of what he’s overcome, but it’s not a triumphant story unless it has a happy ending. One start is good, two would start to make him exciting, and then we’ll go from there.

-Prediction- ND, 6IP, 6H, 3ER, 2BB, 4K

Sunday’s Hail Mary

1. Matt Palmer – Road vs. LA Dodgers – The wins are nice but everything else is out of whack. This is not a great bet.

2. Barry Zito – Road vs. Seattle – Might be owned in too many leagues.

3. Joel Piniero – Road vs. Kansas City – Also might be owned because of his CG Shutout last start

4. Shairon Martis – Home vs. Baltimore

Good luck this Sunday everyone. In the meantime and in-between time, I’m Paul Erlick. Bye now.

R.J. White (or daullaz) has been actively involved in fantasy sports for over 14 years, making him an addict at this point. He loves writing, the Atlanta Braves, music, the Buffalo Bills, theatre, the Philadelphia Eagles, his family, and the number 42, though not in that order.
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