Positional Tiers: Starting Pitcher

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Today in the Positional Tiers series, we’ll be delving into one of the most critical positions to building your fantasy team, the starting pitchers. The championship rotation is usually built by drafting one or two aces to go along with a few solid mid-round hurlers and finding one or two hidden gems at the end of the draft or on the waiver wire. These tiers are designed to give you a guide as to when to draft pitchers from each of the preceding categories, as being stuck with a weak SP1 could end your season before it begins.

Below, you’ll find my SP tiers. I’ve listed each pitcher’s 2008 stats along with their strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) and strikeout-per-nine inning (K/9) ratios. Not too many pitchers can have consistent success with a sub-2.0 K/BB or a sub-6.0 K/9, which I’ve taken into account.

Tier 1: Rounds 2-4

2008 Stats	MDP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	K/BB	K/9	IP
Johan Santana	16	16	7	2.53	1.15	206	63	3.269	7.911	234 1/3
Tim Lincecum	18	18	5	2.62	1.17	265	84	3.155	10.507	227
CC Sabathia	22	17	10	2.70	1.12	251	59	4.254	8.929	253
Roy Halladay	42	20	11	2.78	1.05	206	39	5.282	7.536	246
Cole Hamels	37	14	10	3.09	1.08	196	53	3.698	7.760	227 1/3
Brandon Webb	35	22	7	3.30	1.20	183	65	2.815	7.266	226 2/3
Jake Peavy	41	10	11	2.85	1.18	166	59	2.814	8.603	173 2/3
Dan Haren	53	16	8	3.33	1.13	206	40	5.150	8.583	216

Some fantasy owners don’t like selecting pitching this early, but as these eight SPs are far and away the best options at the positions, you would be wise to snag one before they’re all gone. Some will burn a second-round pick on Johan Santana or Tim Lincecum, but you’d be better served to grab an elite hitter in Round 2 and to wait until four or five of these Tier 1 guys are off the board. This will give you a great start to your offense and still leave you with a top-notch, near-sure thing at the top of the rotation. In particular, I would target the pinpoint control of Roy Halladay or the high-strikeout potential of Jake Peavy.

Tier 2: Rounds 5-8

2008 Stats	MDP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	K/BB	K/9	IP
Ervin Santana	79	16	7	3.49	1.12	214	47	4.553	8.795	219
Chad Billingsley	88	16	10	3.14	1.34	201	80	2.513	9.015	200 2/3
Josh Beckett	66	12	10	4.03	1.19	172	34	5.059	8.879	174 1/3
James Shields	82	14	8	3.56	1.15	160	40	4.000	6.698	215
Roy Oswalt	77	17	10	3.54	1.18	165	47	3.511	7.117	208 2/3
John Lackey	85	12	5	3.75	1.23	130	40	3.250	7.163	163 1/3
Scott Kazmir	90	12	8	3.49	1.27	166	70	2.371	9.807	152 1/3
Cliff Lee	68	22	3	2.54	1.11	170	34	5.000	6.851	223 1/3
Zack Greinke	134	13	10	3.47	1.28	183	56	3.268	8.140	202 1/3
Francisco Liriano	75	6	4	3.91	1.40	67	32	2.094	7.933	76
Felix Hernandez	91	9	11	3.45	1.39	175	80	2.188	7.849	200 2/3

If you’re unlucky enough to be without a starting pitcher by now, I would strongly urge you grab two guys from Tier 2, including one of those first five guys. Remember that some of the teams that already have a Tier 1 starter will likely end up with one of these guys as well, so it’s crucial to take two quality guys from this list so you don’t fall further behind.

What Ervin Santana did last year was amazing, as he didn’t turn in one poor start at all in 2008. If you take his 2008 numbers alone, he belongs in Tier 1. If he turns in a similar performance in 2009, he’ll be locked into Tier 1 from this point on. With an elite skill-set, that remains a distinct possibility.

The second half of this tier is comprised of guys that are either injury risks or young aces that haven’t quite put everything together. One name that doesn’t fall into either category is Cliff Lee, and it’s quite possible that in writing off his Cy Young 2008 season as a fluke, your fellow owners could let Lee slip further than he deserves. Judging from his MDP ranking, I’m going to end up with Zach Greinke on a lot of teams. He’s outperformed Felix Hernandez, who is taken 40 spots higher, and his 2008 ranks right up there with Roy Oswalt and John Lackey.

Tier 3: Rounds 9-13

2008 Stats	MDP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	K/BB	K/9	IP
Joba Chamberlain	114	4	3	2.60	1.26	118	39	3.026	10.584	100 1/3
Yovani Gallardo	116	0	0	1.88	1.25	20	8	2.500	7.500	24
Javier Vazquez	133	12	16	4.67	1.32	200	61	3.278	8.640	208 1/3
Ricky Nolasco	128	15	8	3.52	1.10	186	42	4.429	7.884	212 1/3
Daisuke Matsuzaka	92	18	3	2.90	1.32	154	94	1.638	8.266	167 2/3
Jon Lester	99	16	6	3.21	1.27	152	66	2.303	6.505	210 1/3
Edinson Volquez	105	17	6	3.21	1.33	206	93	2.215	9.460	196
A.J. Burnett	98	18	10	4.07	1.34	231	86	2.686	9.393	221 1/3
Rich Harden	103	10	2	2.07	1.06	181	61	2.967	11.006	148
Adam Wainwright	126	11	3	3.20	1.18	91	34	2.676	6.205	132
Scott Baker	172	11	4	3.45	1.18	141	42	3.357	7.364	172 1/3
David Price	130	0	0	1.93	0.93	12	4	3.000	7.714	14
Matt Cain	127	8	14	3.76	1.36	186	91	2.044	7.691	217 2/3
Ted Lilly	165	17	9	4.09	1.23	184	64	2.875	8.091	204 2/3
Chris R. Young	123	7	6	3.96	1.29	93	48	1.938	8.179	102 1/3
Carlos Zambrano	108	14	6	3.91	1.29	130	72	1.806	6.201	188 2/3
Ryan Dempster	132	17	6	2.96	1.21	187	76	2.461	8.144	206 2/3
John Danks	156	12	9	3.32	1.23	159	57	2.789	7.338	195
Matt Garza	157	11	9	3.70	1.24	128	59	2.169	6.238	184 2/3

This is where leagues could be won: the owners that nail the right Tier 3 pitching selections are going to be near the top of the pitching categories. Make sure you take one of your favorites from this list for your SP3 and try to back him up with another Tier 3 pitcher that presents good value for your SP4.

Javier Vazquez has elite-level K/BB and K/9 ratios yet posted disappointing ERA and WHIP numbers in 2008. Moving to the NL and its weaker lineups should benefit Vazquez in those two categories, giving you potentially high Tier 2 numbers from this Tier 3 pitcher.

Other guys I’m targeting from this group: Joba Chamberlain, who will only be limited by the Yankee’s inning count for him; Ricky Nolasco, a great pitcher that doesn’t get enough attention due to the team he plays for; Scott Baker, who has consistently posted excellent K/BB ratios; and Ted Lilly, who’s proven to be an ace pitching in the NL Central.

Tier 4: Rounds 14-20

2008 Stats	MDP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	K/BB	K/9	IP
Josh Johnson	152	7	1	3.61	1.35	77	27	2.852	7.935	87 1/3
Brett Myers	147	10	13	4.55	1.38	163	65	2.508	7.721	190
Kevin Slowey	173	12	11	3.99	1.15	123	24	5.125	6.904	160 1/3
Derek Lowe	151	14	11	3.24	1.13	147	45	3.267	6.271	211
Max Scherzer	160	0	4	3.05	1.23	66	21	3.143	10.607	56
Randy Johnson	191	11	10	3.91	1.24	173	44	3.932	8.462	184
Aaron Harang	159	6	17	4.78	1.38	153	50	3.060	7.470	184 1/3
Justin Verlander	120	11	17	4.84	1.40	163	87	1.874	7.297	201
Johnny Cueto	200	9	14	4.81	1.41	158	68	2.324	8.172	174
Chien-Ming Wang	169	8	2	4.07	1.32	54	35	1.543	5.116	95
Brandon Morrow	182	3	4	3.34	1.14	75	34	2.206	10.438	64 2/3
Gil Meche	216	14	11	3.98	1.32	183	73	2.507	7.830	210 1/3
Clayton Kershaw	188	5	5	4.26	1.50	100	52	1.923	8.359	107 2/3
Wandy Rodriguez	259	9	7	3.54	1.31	131	44	2.977	8.585	137 1/3
Erik Bedard	166	6	4	3.67	1.32	72	37	1.946	8.000	81
Andy Sonnanstine	299	13	9	4.38	1.29	124	37	3.351	5.773	193 1/3
Jered Weaver	208	11	10	4.33	1.28	152	54	2.815	7.744	176 2/3
Kenshin Kawakami	n/a	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Here’s where it gets tricky. Tier 4 is rife with young guys with less than a full season in the majors and potential bounce-back candidates that want to put 2008 injuries behind them. At this point, I’m looking at Brett Myers, who looked great in the second half of last year, and Kevin Slowey, who ranked just behind Halladay and Haren at the top of the K/BB rankings. Don’t forget about Randy Johnson, who had quite a return to form last year with excellent K/BB and K/9 ratios. Kenshin Kawakami has a repertoire of pitches that should make him a great pitcher for at least the first half of 2009, making him a hidden gem.

Tier 5: Rounds 21+

2008 Stats	MDP	W	L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	K/BB	K/9	IP
Manny Parra	297	10	8	4.39	1.54	147	75	1.960	7.970	166
Justin Duchscherer	203	10	8	2.54	1.00	95	34	2.794	6.035	141 2/3
Paul Maholm	n/a	9	9	3.71	1.28	139	63	2.206	6.063	206 1/3
Jonathan Sanchez	283	9	12	5.01	1.45	157	75	2.093	8.943	158
Mark Buehrle	261	15	12	3.79	1.34	140	52	2.692	5.762	218 2/3
Jeremy Bonderman	n/a	3	4	4.29	1.56	44	36	1.222	5.552	71 1/3
Jeremy Guthrie	279	10	12	3.63	1.23	120	58	2.069	5.664	190 2/3
Jair Jurrjens	193	13	10	3.68	1.37	139	70	1.986	6.643	188 1/3
Andy Pettitte	226	14	14	4.54	1.41	158	55	2.873	6.970	204
Chris Volstad	252	6	4	2.88	1.33	52	36	1.444	5.550	84 1/3
John Smoltz	285	3	2	2.57	1.18	36	8	4.500	11.571	28
Gavin Floyd	189	17	8	3.84	1.26	145	70	2.071	6.325	206 1/3
Hiroki Kuroda	269	9	10	3.73	1.22	116	42	2.762	5.695	183 1/3
Jesse Litsch	294	13	9	3.58	1.23	99	39	2.538	5.063	176
John Maine	231	10	8	4.18	1.35	122	67	1.821	7.842	140
Oliver Perez	245	10	7	4.22	1.40	180	105	1.714	8.351	194
David Purcey	n/a	3	6	5.54	1.48	58	29	2.000	8.031	65
Dana Eveland	n/a	9	9	4.34	1.48	118	77	1.532	6.322	168
Koji Uehara	n/a	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

In the end game, you’re looking for the needle in the haystack, the guys that could explode out of the gates in 2009 en route to becoming the most added pitcher in fantasy leagues. While other guys are picking up unexciting options like Jeremy Guthrie and Hiroki Kuroda, I’m targeting John Smoltz for the second half. His 2008 stats don’t look like they came from a pitcher nearing the end of his career. I’m also looking at David Purcey, a pitcher with solid numbers that might be the next Toronto gem.

That’s going to wrap it up for the starting pitcher Positional Tiers. We’ve covered catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and outfield. Be sure to check in tomorrow for the last set of rankings in the series, Positional Tier: Relief Pitcher.

 
R.J. White (or daullaz) has been actively involved in fantasy sports for over 14 years. He is addicted to fantasy sports and loves writing, the Atlanta Braves, music, the Buffalo Bills, theatre, the Philadelphia Eagles, his family, and the number 42, though not in that order.
 

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