2005 Shortstop Forecast Reviewed

As we did with the first and third base positions, let’s briefly check out how my 2005 projections fared. As with any forecast (just ask your local weatherman), there were both hits and misses. Hopefully, a review of these predictions will not only make for entertaining reading, but also help in projecting the performances of this year’s shortstop class.

Last Season’s Top Shortstops

Miguel Tejada (Bal)
Last Season I Said: “For a notoriously slow starter, Tejada started off as hot as Texas asphalt and never cooled off last season. The move to Baltimore apparently agreed with “Miggy” as he posted a career high 150 RBI. Tejada is a textbook fantasy stud; he hits for power and average, offers a sharp eye at the plate, and while he doesn’t walk much, he won’t hurt you with strikeouts either. Last season’s numbers were simply eye-popping, .311/34/150 with 107 runs scored. While the Orioles didn’t make any earth-shaking off-season moves (though the acquisition of OF Sammy Sosa should provide the lineup with even more punch and power), the Orioles still have a loaded roster and there’s no reason to believe that Tejada won’t have another splendid season. Look for Tejada to again be the top shortstop in baseball and fantasy, and put up numbers akin to .313/33/138.”

In Reality: Tejada was Baltimore’s main cog, driving the team almost single-handedly to an early first-place start. Miggy finished the season with a line of .304/26/98, and included in his numbers were a stultifying 50 doubles (the most hit by any SS), five triples, and 337 total bases (second only to Michael Young’s 343). As usual, Tejada’s batting eye was razor-keen and he fanned a mere 83 times in over 650 ABs. While my BA and HR projections were close, Tejada hit 40 fewer ribbies than I anticipated, and the last season that saw the Oriole shortstop record fewer than 106 RBIs was ‘99 (84). His marked lack of run production is attributable to both a dearth of men getting on base in front of him and a post-All-Star-Break slump. Prior to baseball’s “Dog & Pony Show,” Tejada was whacking the ball with impunity; he bragged a .329 average, a slugging percentage of .604, 19 HR and 62 RBI. After the star-fueled show, Tejada was a .276 hitter with a SLG % of .416, an OBP of .322, seven HR, and 36 RBI. While his season was in no way disappointing, his second half digits left his owners frustrated and confused as to whether or not to trade him.

Derek Jeter (NYA)
Last Season I Said: “To say that Jeter started last season off at a glacial pace would be a marked understatement, … [but] Jeter was a house afire over the season’s final four months, and he ended the ‘04 campaign with a very good line of .292/23/78, with 111 runs scored and 23 swiped bags. While there are many who’ll say that Jeter is the second-best Yankee shortstop (those people are generally Red Sox supporters), he nevertheless possesses remarkable intangibles and is a run waiting to happen. Batting in the best lineup money can buy, Jeter remains an elite option at short and should post another outstanding season as he continues his relentless march to Cooperstown. Look for .297/22/80 with 23 SB.”

In Reality: I was almost money with my projections for the Yankee bellwether, missing his average by 12 points, HR by three, and ribbies by ten. Captain Courageous swatted .309/19/70, with 14 swiped bags and 122 runs scored. In addition, Jeter recorded his first 200+ hit (202) season in five years (201 in ‘00), matched his career high for games played with 159, and continued to play a very solid short with 15 errors. If there’s any criticism to be made it’s that “Jeets’” defensive range might’ve diminished somewhat.

Michael Young (Tex)
Last Season I Said: “While listing Young as the #3 fantasy shortstop is sure to provoke criticism, the dude did have almost 220 hits and put up .313/22/99 while hitting primarily out of the leadoff slot. Add his 114 runs scored, 12 SB, 44 walks, and 89 Ks out of 690 AB, and perhaps the ranking will make a little more sense. The Texas lineup’s got a cast of mashers, remains imposing, and Young is just entering his prime. Let’s pencil this gamer in for .315/25/97 with 16 SB.”

In Reality: Several readers commented upon the “foolishness” of listing Young as my third-ranked Shortstop last season, stating that athletes such as Bobby Crosby and Rafael Furcal, amongst others, rated the slot. A .331/24/91 (with 220+ hits and a mere 91 Ks) campaign that saw Young top all Shortstops with an OPS of .899 vindicates the selection. Young is firmly entrenched in Texas’s lineup … and affirmed his elite status with a third consecutive .300+ average, 200+ hit season.

Nomar Garciaparra (ChN)
Last Season I Said: “Nomah is also going to be jotted in as my Comeback Player of the Year. While he battled through an injury-plagued ‘04, he was also forced to contend with the legion of distractions that surrounded his trade from Boston to Chicago. The confluence of issues no doubt contributed to Nomar’s down season and arguably poor attitude. Nonetheless, assuming he stays healthy, Garciaparra’s got the potential to bounce back into the top three at his position. However, such an assumption is a bit of a risk due to Nomar’s age, 31. Anticipating that Garciaparra, a very talented athlete, has recovered from his Achilles injury, look for a line of .310/20/95. (This could be a very generous line.)”

In Reality: The Red Sox’ former favorite son is now with his third team in two seasons. The injury bug continued to stalk Garciaparra, and his inability to stay on field rendered him a fantasy zero for a second straight year. After playing precisely half of the ‘04 season (81games, with a line of .308/9/41), Garciaparra played a scant 62 games in ‘05 for the Cubbies before he tore his groin muscle … away from the bone. The two-time American League batting champ and 1997 AL Rookie of the Year managed to play just 14 games before being smitten by his knee-clampingly painful injury, and in those games he hit at a feeble .157 clip. Upon returning from his injury after the All-Star Break, Nomar participated in 48 games and stepped it up considerably, hitting a substantially improved .318, with nine HR, 11 doubles and 26 RBI.

Still, given the lofty expectations held for him, the ‘05 season must be considered a 62-game, .283/9/30 washout.

Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
Last Season I Said: “No longer just a “good” fantasy shortstop, Rollins has crossed into the blue and become an elite middle infielder. Offering power, speed and excellent production, if Rollins hits the basepaths running he’s got a shot at having a career-best season. Pencil the still developing Rollins in for .299/17/77 with 35 SB.”

In Reality: While ‘05 didn’t turn out to be a “career” year for the Phillie, Rollins approached, met, or exceeded many of his career numbers … and ended the campaign on a 36-game hitting streak. “Fast Jimmy” notched a very nice season of .290/12/54, with 41 swiped bags sweetening his fantasy pot, acceptably close to my .299/17/77, 35 SB projection. The knock on Rollins’ season? A lead-off hitter must be able to work the count in order to force a walk and record a high OBP, and Rollins’ OBP was a somewhat less than breathtaking .338. In conjunction, his walk to strikeout ratio needs work; the guy walked 47 times and struck out 71 times in 675+ ABs.

You Won’t Get “Short-changed” With These Guys

Rafael Furcal (Atl)
Last Season I Said: “There’s admittedly a bit of a drop-off after Miggy, “DJ,” Young and Nomah. Still, Furcal offers his owners rare speed and decent pop. If Furcal can tear himself away from his local pub, he should put up a line of .285/17/65 with 30 SB.”

In Reality: I’m getting closer! Furcal took off the “beer goggles,” refocused his attention on baseball, and found his way to a .284/12/58, 46 SB season. I missed his BA by one measely point, and overestimated his homer and RBI totals by five and seven, respectively. Not too shabby! Furcal’s 46 thieved bags ranked him third amongst all National Leaguers, and his SB production nearly equalled several teams’ totals!

Edgar Renteria (Bos)
Last Season I Said: “Owners hoping that Renteria would duplicate his remarkable ‘03 season were sorely disappointed. Renteria’s hits dropped from 194 to 168, his runs fell from 96 to 84, HRs from 13 to 10, RBIs from 100 to 72, SB from 34 to 17, walks from 65 to 39, and his average plummeted from .330 to .287. If you include the nearly 100-point drop in OBP (.406 to .314), the difference was almost night and day. And yet the brighter side is that even with the diminished productivity, Renteria remains a top ten shortstop. Let’s operate under the assumption that Renteria’s true numbers lie somewhere between his ‘03 and ‘04 seasons, and look for .291/8/85, with 80 runs scored and 25 SB.”

In Reality: Ever hear the axiom that warns against assuming? Yeah, well, I’d have been well served to have adhered to such sage advice. After moving from St. Louis to Boston, Renteria’s numbers, most of ‘em anyway, continued their downward spiral. The one-time 100 RBI, .330 hitter was not amongst the top ten at his position, and the Sox’ shortstop posted a season of .276/8/70, with 100 runs and nine SB. I nailed his home run total on the button, but overshot his batting average by 15 points, his ribbie total by the same number, 15, and stolen bases by a “mere” 16. Another down year? Yes, I think so. The upside? Edgar, or “Eddie” to friends, boosted his number of triples! In ‘04, Renteria hit … zero. In ‘05, he picked up four! Ya see? Every cloud has a silver lining if you look deep enough or know how to twist statistics to suit your needs!

Carlos Guillen (Det)
Last Season I Said: “Having torn up his knee (ACL tear), Guillen is anything but a sure thing. However, a trade that sent Guillen to Detroit from Seattle seemed to be the spark that ignited a career season. At his physical peak, if healthy, Guillen could even build upon last season’s numbers and again be a very good fantasy weapon. Monitor his rehab progress closely. If he’s 95% or so, look for .293/16/95 with eight steals.”

In Reality: I am sorry to report that Carlos Guillen’s ‘05 season fell right into line with each of his prior seven; it was fun while it lasted! The paper Tiger played a total of 87 games in a season punctuated by pain, and hit a nearly powerless .320/5/23, with two swiped bags. It was apparent from the start that his right knee (torn ACL in ‘04) was going to be problematic, and a left hamstring pull did nothing to help matters. With a pair of bum wheels, Guillen was able to post a nice average but offered zip, zilch, and zero in the power department.

Orlando Cabrera (Ana)
Last Season I Said: “Another shortstop who benefited from a change in scenery, a move to Boston from Montreal’s comparatively barren lineup spurred Cabrera to finish the season with confidence. Now part of Anaheim’s excellent lineup, a full season with his Angel teammates could even result in a slight upswing in Cabrera’s numbers, possibly to the tune of .280/12/73 with 22 SB.”

In Reality: Contrary to the opinions of many a fantasy analyst, not to mention the hopes of the Angel coaching staff, Cabrera’s numbers only slid deeper into the quicksand of baseball mediocrity. Any owner who held out hope that “O.C.” would replicate his impressive .297/17/80, 95-run, 24-SB ‘03 was sorely disappointed. Instead, Cabrera (.257/8/57, 70 runs, 21 SB) ended up on many leagues’ waiver wires.

Jack Wilson (Pit)
Last Season I Said: “This dude broke OUT last season. Available through most league’s waiver wires, Wilson (only 27) surprised fantasy owners and teammates alike with a .308/11/59 season. Given that in 2003, he hit at a mere .256 clip with a slugging percentage over 100 points lower than his ‘04 figure of .459, everyone’s surprise was understandable. While Wilson’s not much of a base stealer and doesn’t draw many walks, he won’t kill you with strikeouts either. However, if you should elect to draft Wilson, I’d make certain to have another athlete who offers flexibility at the shortstop position … just in case. Was Wilson’s ‘04 campaign an aberration and career year? Quite possibly, but let’s think positively and assume his ‘05 numbers will lie somewhere between his previous two seasons; look for something like .285/10/62.”

In Reality: Yet another underwhelming shortstop whose high ‘05 ranking was erected upon the scaffold of a single, apparently anomalous season. Even so, my .285/10/62 projection was within hailing distance of his actual .257/8/52 campaign. For obvious reasons, Wilson doesn’t rate a ranking on this year’s list. He’s certainly not amongst the game’s elite, and at 28 he’s neither “On the Rise” nor “In Decline.” Jack Wilson’s just an average shortstop on an average team that fields … you guessed it, average talent (aside from OF Jason Bay). If you decide to punt the position for several rounds in order to add depth to your roster, Wilson, who hung a .292 second half average with 31 RBIs and all seven of his SB, could be a sneaky late-round grab. A season akin to .275/12/70 is posible.

Shortstops On The Rise

Bobby Crosby (Oak)
Last Season I Said: “Asked to fill some mighty big shoes at short in Oakland, Crosby responded with a solid season that earned him AL Rookie of the Year honors. A flawless season it was not, however, and Crosby must become more discerning at the dish as another 141 strikeout season would be unacceptable. Another off-season of work and spring training should help Crosby develop a better eye, and his developing power bodes well for the future. Look for Crosby to build upon last year and avoid the sophomore slump (hopefully) that afflicted fellow shortstop Angel Berroa. Eight swiped bags and .250/25/75 should be in reach for the A’s young’un.”

In Reality: Crosby’s season started off on a sour note when he sustained broken ribs on opening day. Upon returning from his busted-up mid-section, the Oakland infielder suffered a fractured ankle at the end of August, and helped no one when he returned prematurely in order to provide a boost to a team in the thick of the AL West hunt. Crosby went 4-for-25 before shutting it down for good, but his late-season return, while well-intentioned, cost him statistically. In 84 games and 333 plate appearances, the A’s shortstop posted a respectable .276/9/38. Extrapolated over the span of a full 162-game season, Croz’ would’ve hung something like .276/17/70 and been pretty close to my .250/25/75 projection.

Khalil Greene (SD)
Last Season I Said: “With a high baseball IQ and ample power potential, Greene’s got a bright future. While playing in San Diego’s spacious Petco Park doesn’t help his home run numbers, Greene still mashed 15 dingers last year. Although he’s no speed merchant, the 25-year-old Padre has decent range, 20-homer potential, and should have improved with another spring training under his belt. Look for Greene to post .285/18/75 with five SB.”

In Reality: Well, again, I was close. Greene’s season shook-out to be .250/15/70, with five SB. I was on time with the Padre SS’s homers, off by just three, along with RBI, missed by a scant five, and I nailed his exact SB number, five. While I may be thrilled to have projected Greene accurately, his owners could not have been thrilled with two stints on the DL due to different broken bones, an OBP of .296, and a shortstop who attempted to pull everything out of gargantuan Petco Park.

Greene doesn’t make the top 10 list, nor will I slot him in any of the other categories this season. A Padre who does possess .300 potential, Greene has fallen in love with the home run and must come to grips with the fact that even the strongest hitters have trouble driving balls out of Petco. If Khalil Greene would simply embrace his strengths, speed (61 doubles and six triples over the past two seasons) and the ability to make contact, he’d be a far better ball player. If Greene can do that much he’ll be a serviceable fantasy middle infielder, but until such time as he does, he’s nothing more than a nice insurance policy for your starting shortstop.

Jose Reyes (NYN)
Last Season I Said: “The Mets have moved this tremendously gifted and quick as a blink athlete from his natural position of shortstop to second base, and now back to short again. An assortment of injuries (predominantly leg) have significantly abbreviated Reyes’ tenure in New York, however, and valid questions about his durability remain. If Reyes can stay healthy and off the trainer’s table, he possesses immeasurable real and fantasy ability. With a quick bat and absurd speed, Reyes has top 15 fantasy player potential. If he can stay on the field, and again that’s a mighty big if, look for .291/8/35 with 31 SB. Note: … I am not a big Reyes fan and question his ability to remain healthy playing at this level. Make certain you have another player capable of filling in for him if need be.”

In Reality: In reality, I couldn’t be more pleased to have been more incorrect! Now don’t get me wrong: although he hung some nice diggies, Reyes was not a fantasy monster last season. Statistically, .273/7/58 and an OBP of .300 were somewhat underwhelming. But the fact that Reyes managed to avoid the types of injuries that plagued him in years prior (mainly leg and nagging Hammy’ pulls) was a victory in and of itself. In 2003 “El Rey” played 69 games, in ‘04 … 53. But in ‘05, Reyes played a whopping 161 games, scored 99 runs, and led the league with 17 triples and 60 stolen bases. Encouraging? Absolutely!

On The Way Down

Omar Vizquel (SF)
Last Season I Said: “To say that Vizquel is in decline might be a bit of a misnomer as he hit .291/7/59 and recorded 19 swiped bags for Cleveland last season. Nevertheless, Vizquel (37) is in the twilight of a wonderful career and at his age, an athlete’s stats can plummet from one season to the next. While Vizquel’s production probably won’t fall off a cliff, I still anticipate a modest correction in his numbers. Look for a very reasonable .275/5/55 with 12 SB.”

In Reality: “The Viz” may be older than dirt, but he’s still stealing bases and plugging for third! As for my .275/5/55, 12 SB projection? If this were horseshoes, it wouldn’t have been a ringer but I’d have clanked the spike. In actuality, the Viz posted a .271/3/45, 24 SB line.

San Fran’s venerable shortstop started the season red-hot, hitting at a .305 pace prior to the break. After the star-studded week … well, he wasn’t quite as successful. Vizquel’s age really seemed to catch up with him, and he hit a much cooler .229 over the season’s second half. The guy continues to be a magician with the glove, however, and after 16 AL seasons in which he won nine Gold Gloves, Vizquel won his first as an NL player with the Giants.

Naturally, coming off of a down season and at 38 (39 in April), I wouldn’t suggest drafting Vizquel, but an argument can be made that just like the rest of the Giant lineup, Viz missed the protection afforded by Barry Bonds and his big bat. But 24 SB, his highest total since ‘99, 28 doubles, four triples, and 150 games played indicate that Vizquel’s got some life left in him. An ‘06 “insurance” shortstop? Perhaps, particularly if Bonds can stay healthy and in the lineup.

Assuming the latter happens, .280/4/55, with 18 bags snagged is not inconceivable.

Jose Valentin (LA)
Last Season I Said: “Even with 30 home runs on the season, Valentin’s second-half numbers were abysmal. His batting average declined for a fifth consecutive year, and his OBP (.287) was lower than many players’ batting averages. At age 35, the veteran’s best days are behind him, but on the plus side, having been brought in by Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta to replace the departed Adrian Beltre, Valentin will qualify at both SS and 3B this season.”

In Reality: You know, as hard as it is to believe, Valentin would’ve paid money for a season that approached his stinkin’-bad ‘04. An orthopedist’s dream last year, an injured wrist prompted an early season 0-for-26 slump, and three torn leg ligaments sufferered in early May effectively ended his year. While Valentin attempted a comeback in late August, he ended an injury-marred yampaign with a ghastly bad line of .170/2/14.

Met GM Omar Minaya added Valentin to his still-growing collection of Latin players. No longer an everyday player, Minaya envisions the 14-year vet filling the void left by Marlon Anderson’s departure. That is, coming off the bench as a late inning pinch-hitter and serving as a backup to David Wright (3B), Jose Reyes (SS), and possibly the outfielders. Either way, unless you belong to a deep, deep NL-only league, I’d avoid Jose Valentin altogether.

Top Sleeper

BJ Upton (TB)
Last Season I Said: “The kid’s got a big time bat, but the knock on him remains his iffy work with the leather. Although he’s got great upside, potential is often akin to a four-letter word. Upton, who may well be slotted at second Base this year, might even be available through your league’s waiver wire. Keep an eye on his spring training numbers before you do anything drastic.”

In Reality: Upton was also listed as a third bagger, but unfortunately, the kid never even got a sniff of the bigs. His brother is also a big-time prospect. If you’re a trading card collector and consider yourself a rookie speculator, young Justin Upton’s also a five-tool talent with a world of upside.

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