What to Make of the 2006 Rookie Starting Pitchers

Anyone could predict that Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Francisco Liriano are solid bets to pitch well for the rest of the season. Most people can prognosticate that Rich Hill probably isn’t going to make much impact as a starter for this year. However, what about the other rookies that have started this season? I placed them into one of three categories: the good, the average, and the bad.

The Good- Starters who should make an impact on fantasy teams for the rest of the season:

1. Chuck James- His ERA is a little high, but his walk rate has decreased significantly in his past few starts, which is obviously good news. He has only had one bad start, and his percentages look much better if you view that one start as an anomaly.

2. John Lester- Lester has lost only once this season, and could easily have seven wins. He has a 3.49 ERA, which includes games played at Fenway Park. Matt Clement and David Wells will not knock him out of the rotation.

3. Jeremy Sowers- This soft-tosser will not record a lot of strikeouts, but he does seem to induce many weak fly balls and soft ground balls. With the tribe out of the race, Sowers will start for the rest of the season. He should turn in good numbers in all categories except K’s.

4. Josh Johnson- He has recorded 8 wins and 92 strikeouts this season for the Marlins. Despite a relatively high WHIP, his earned run average is still a sparkling 2.60.

5. Anibal Sanchez- In his four wins this season, Sanchez has only allowed one earned run. While his other two starts were not as impressive, Sanchez has pitched well against tough teams and should be on fantasy rosters by now.

6. Cole Hamels- This hard throwing left-hander has been a victim of bad luck all season long. His latest burden occurred when he was struck by a line drive off the bat of Florida Marlins’ outfielder, Joe Borchard. Barring anymore injury issues, Hamels should pitch well for the remainder of the season. He may have some problems with the long ball, but Hamels will rack up the strikeouts.

7. Matt Cain- He is a lot like Hamels in that he is susceptible to the home run. He’s also similar to Hamels because he lights up the radar gun. His hard throwing ability will help him through the season as hitters’ bats slow down over the course of a long season.

8. Scott Olsen- This Marlin has the ability to win (nine games), strike hitters out (101 in 109 innings), and keep his ERA (3.79) and WHIP (1.25) down.

The Average- Starters who will be in the rotation for the rest of the season if they pitch well down the stretch. Many of these starters could be relegated to the bullpen if they have a bad start or two in the near future. Most of these guys are spot starters in fantasy leagues:

1. Zach Miner- He will continue to win sporadically as long as the Detroit Tigers keep hitting the ball, but he may lose his spot when Mike Maroth comes back. He looked very impressive in his first seven starts, but that was mostly due to a high runners stranded rate and a low BABIP. As those numbers have returned to normal, Miner’s ERA and WHIP have puffed up.

2. Ricky Nolasco- Of his nine wins, not one of them has come when facing a team whose record is above .500. In his three starts against teams with winning records, he has allowed seventeen runs in less than twelve innings. Nolasco has “spot start” written all over him.

3. Chad Billingsley- He averages over four walks a start, but allows about the same number of hits as innings pitched per start. In the minors, Billingsley’s stats showed that he had decent control, which makes me think the kid is just a bit nervous about pitching to hitters at the top level. If he cuts down his walk rate, his performance will skyrocket. If he doesn’t, he may have to go back to the minors for more seasoning.

4. John Maine- He has looked very good in his last few starts, better than he ever has in the major leagues. He does not have enough starts, or enough security in the rotation to be in the above group, though he could earn a place with a few more starts like the ones in the past few weeks. His three to one strikeout to walk ratio is outstanding.

5. Tim Corcoran- He has beaten Boston and New York, yet he could not get out of the fourth inning against Baltimore. Corcoran is probably good enough for spot start duty, especially against aggressive teams. He has also walked more hitters than he has struck out.

The Bad- Avoid these pitchers:

1. Carlos Marmol- Any starter for the Chicago Cubs is probably not going to contribute substantially in the win category, and this Cub’s starter allows almost a walk for every strikeout. He has been getting some luck with an above average runners stranded rate. When that luck runs out, his ERA will jump more than a run.

2. Taylor Buchholz- He started off great, but after successive games in which he allowed six runs, he has been optioned to Triple-A.

3. Scott Baker- His control is great; ten walks in sixty innings. His pitching has not been superb; 6.27 ERA and a .313 batting average for his opponents. I wonder, why is he still in the rotation?

4. Mike Pelfrey- He’s walked nine batters this season, and has only eight strikeouts. He is not the dominating flame-thrower type that can afford to walk a lot of hitters. His control problems date back to the minor leagues, so unless he continues to get lucky, he will probably not contribute much this season.

5. Paul Maholm- Maholm may turn out to be a fine big league pitcher some day, but as a rookie he is just learning. His apprenticeship will cost your fantasy team. He has only four wins, mediocre strikeout totals, and his ERA is flirting near five. Tack on the Pirates lack of offense for possible run support, and Maholm gives you no reason to have him on your team.

6. Anthony Reyes- He has not pitched into the seventh in his last six starts. In those six starts, he has averaged only three strike outs, while allowing over three runs. He has very average numbers, and if it wasn’t for his one great outing in Chicago, I don’t think he would be on the fantasy radar at all.

(2 votes, average: 2.5 out of 5)  Loading ... Questions or comments for Brendan? Post them in the Cafe Forums! Want to see your own fantasy wisdom published? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!