Analyzing Your Pitching Progress

I can picture it now. You are in fifth place, your offense is killing the ball. Apart from being middle of the pack in steals, all is well. However, when you look at the league standings for pitching, it’s slim pickings. Don’t throw in the towel just yet, though. Comparatively, you may be doing just fine.

One thing that a lot of fantasy players tend to forget (particularly those new to the game) is to monitor their innings pitched limit, and consider how their pitching staff is performing in relation to the number of innings that they have pitched.

At the end of last season, I put out a call to Cafe members in the forums to provide me with data on any leagues that they competed in last year. Due to the high volume of people that visit the Cafe, and the cooperation of its members, a sample size significant enough to draw relevant conclusions from was observed. Each member was asked to provide the overall totals for each of the categories scored within their league. The majority of these leagues contained twelve teams, tended to utilize a 1250 innings limit for pitching, while starting two starting pitchers, two relievers, and three flex pitchers (starter or reliever). The categories being contested in these leagues were wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA (earned run average), and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). This is the most commonly used league setup for standard rotisserie leagues.

The total sample saw the collection of data from 264 teams (22 leagues). Thanks to GotowarMissAgnes, a valuable member of the Cafe, a detailed analysis of the results was produced, indicating some useful information:

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Top	1245	321	1162	211	0.298	112	175	1313	2.91	1.09
90th	1047	261	1000	153	0.288	95	136	1191	3.33	1.19
80th	903	243	879	137	0.284	90	119	1097	3.55	1.22
75th	874	235	850	132	0.282	88	111	1068	3.59	1.23
70th	859	227	833	127	0.281	87	105	1051	3.63	1.24
60th	831	216	795	111	0.279	83	95	1014	3.71	1.26

 
Don’t be too intimidated by the above data. For the purpose of this exercise, we are only observing the pitching categories, but feel free to make use of the available offensive data in itself! The table basically shows where you can expect to finish (based on the collected data) in each of the standard five pitching categories. The first line labeled ‘Top’ shows the highest value collected from the data in each category. Below that are the totals for each category, and where you can reasonably expect to place as a result. For example, if you finished the season with 95 wins or more, you could reasonably expect to be within the top 90th percentile in that league – or in other words, the top ten percent. Obviously our goal as fantasy players should be to try and finish as close to the top as possible, so shooting for the top ten percent is an excellent place to start.

Why is this useful? Well, for starters, the above data itself is an excellent resource when trying to figure out whether or not you have enough contributors to each category (speed, power, strikeouts, etc). However, in addition to that, it can be useful in projecting how efficient your innings have been.

	W	Win Rate (Wins/IP)	SV	Save Rate (Saves/IP)	K	Strikeout Rate (K’s/IP)	ERA	Total ER	WHIP	Total Walks + Hits
90th	95	7.60	136	10.88	1191	95.28	3.33	463	1.19	1488
80th	90	7.20	119	9.52	1097	87.76	3.55	493	1.22	1525
75th	88	7.04	111	8.88	1068	85.44	3.59	499	1.23	1538
70th	87	6.96	105	8.40	1051	84.08	3.63	504	1.24	1550
60th	83	6.64	95	7.60	1014	81.12	3.71	515	1.26	1575

In the table above, extra columns have been added in relation to each category. Basically, the rates columns indicate the percentages necessary in each category to finish within the top ten percent in each particular category. In the above table (with an innings pitched limit of 1250), to finish in the top ten percent in the wins category, the data indicates that you need to pick up a win in 7.6% of your innings pitched. To finish in the same top percentile in the saves category, the data indicates that you need to accumulate a save in 10.88% of your innings pitched. Strikeouts are obviously higher, suggesting that to attain a high position in the placing for strikeouts, you need to accumulate one in 95.28% of innings pitched. The other two columns indicate the total numbers of earned runs, and walks plus hits that you can afford over the season.

The great thing about the above rates is that you can perform the analysis with your team at any point during the season (assuming it is a 12 team league and the same pitching slots are scored), by simply dividing the counting statistic (wins, saves, and strikeouts) by the number of innings that you have accumulated so far, and then multiplying by one hundred, converting it into a percentage. If you are over the rate, in relation to one of the above values, then maybe you should emphasize some improvement in another area; sit the starter in favor of a reliever to help improve the strikeouts, while shaving some ERA and WHIP. Keep in mind that how you use your limited number of innings is extremely important in achieving maximum results across the board. You may be using far too many innings on closers, only to find out at the end of the season that you were on track to win that category, when your efforts may have been better invested in trying to attain wins.

This holds true to the testament, “it’s not about quantity, but more about quality”. Why should your valuable innings pitched be any different?

PS: Many thanks to those who participated in the study, and GotowarMissAgnes for running the primary analysis – greatly appreciated.

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