The Important Trade Deadline

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is over, but a more important deadline is coming up shortly; the fantasy baseball trade deadline. Some of you may already be past the deadline in your leagues, but most of us have at least until the end of the week to address our team’s needs.

There are roughly three and a half weeks left in the season and the first thing you must do at the deadline is assess your chances of making the post-season. Whether you are in a keeper league, dynasty league, or a redraft league, if you are within reach of the playoffs (in head-to-head) you must make a push for a spot. At the conclusion of this week, you will likely have three more ‘games’ until post-season action. Hypothetically, if eight teams make the playoffs and you are nine games ahead of the ninth place team, you can relax, you are probably in the playoffs. If you happen to be in this position, you probably have a good team; and unless you get a slam dunk of a deal, ought to keep your team the way it is (standard 5×5 scoring presumed). If you are more than nine games behind the last playoff team, it is probably time to deal two or three solid players for a super star, to assure that you have at least one great keeper to build a team around in the coming years.

For those of you in the first scenario, this article is for you. There may be only a few opportunities to get a star player with those poised for a playoff run not wanting to trade their best players, and the bottom feeders trying to keep a few players to save respectability. That being said, there is no doubt you will have ample opportunity to get a few sleepers down the stretch.

The underachievers you need to target are the players who have had a rough go so far, but recent history or a hot streak suggests they may turn it on down the stretch.

Jake Peavy: This one may have been obvious, but Peavy has allowed only four runs in his last three starts, while striking out seventeen. In his career, the only two months that he has posted earned run averages under three are August and September. He also strikes out more batters in August than in any other month, on average. Peavy is due for a great finish this season, and considering his line so far, is a tremendous buy low candidate.

Andy Pettitte: Pettitte has not had his typical season. He has already seen twenty-two balls reach the seats in fair territory (one short of a career high) and has already lost twelve decisions, the most of his career over a single season. The culprit? A very high batting average on balls in play. The league average is about .300, but Pettitte is around .360. Usually a number like that is due to come down over time, and it has already started happening. Should his BABIP fall over the rest of the season, his numbers should take a turn for the better.

Eric Chavez: His season has been ruined by a forearm injury. He has only three home runs since May 27 while his batting average has plummeted forty-five points. However, he said ten days ago that his forearm felt almost 100% and there have been some positive signs. The power is still missing, but he has hit in thirteen of the past seventeen games. He doesn’t usually get hot until August anyway, so he is definitely worth a shot if you are struggling to find a third basemen.

Brian Giles: Considering that you could probably get him for a bag of peanuts and a can of beer in your league, he is a decent option in the coming months. His .317 September average is his highest average in any month and his best power comes in August. His recent hot streak suggests he is coming around this season, and makes him worth a look.

Adrian Beltre: I hope I’m not the only one who noticed his four home runs this month. While he may not be the long term answer right now, he is a power hitting third basemen with ten stolen bases.

Now for the overachievers. Somehow they have got this far in the season churning out great numbers, but expect a return to Earth in the coming weeks.

Bronson Arroyo: He was always a decent pitcher in Boston, but he has largely exceeded expectations in Cincinnati. Currently, his fantasy stats are about as good as you could have hoped for as an Arroyo owner. The only issue is they have been top-heavy. In his first eight starts, he struck out seven or more batters four times. In those eight starts he had five wins. In his sixteen starts since, he has struck out seven only three times, and has four wins in that period, not one since June 19. A big problem for him has been home runs. When he was winning, the homers came with nobody on base. Lately though, men on base + lots of runs = not a lot of wins. He isn’t going to blow up like Derrick Turnbow, where his ERA jumps to five overnight, but his stats will deteriorate gradually and look very much like they did in 2004 with Boston: ERA a little over four, 160 strike outs, around eleven or twelve wins.

Nate Robertson: Robertson has quietly turned in a good a season for the Tigers so far, but his career splits show that this trend is not likely to continue. August has not been good to him, and September has been worse, a month in which he has a career ERA of 7.00. Since the start of July this season his ERA has shot up more than half a run, and he has lost four of his last six starts. He continues to post mediocre strike out totals and offers you little incentive to continue starting him. He may win a few games pitching for a team like Detroit but that’s about it.

Tom Glavine: His overall numbers remain solid despite seven consecutive starts in which he did not pitch particularly well. Sure, he may get some wins while pitching for the Mets, but it comes at great cost to your ERA and WHIP while at the same time August and September have not been kind to him in years past. Even worse, the last time he struck out five or more batters in a game was June 18. Like most soft tossers, his stuff is not as effective in the later part of the season, when hitters have less trouble catching up to the fastball.

Raul Ibanez: Ibanez has had a career year so far, but the best of this season is behind him. He has just one home run in his last ten games, and had only five in the whole month of July. In the same time period his average has dropped fifteen points. History shows that his decline will continue, as his worst two months statistically are August and September, with September being a month in which he has only fourteen home runs in over 600 AB.

Carlos Lee: He is playing in a great hitters’ park, and is in a powerful lineup, but I would use that information to persuade other owners to trade for him. Lee has only one home run and five RBIs since switching leagues before the deadline. Lee struggles with his power a bit in the final two months of the season, and if his last two months of this season continue that trend he will finish with under forty homers.

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