Stiff Competition in the American League

As we approach spring training, this is the time of year most Major League teams are filled with hope and optimism for the coming season. However, I have been a die-hard Red Sox fan my whole life, and while I am used to seeing a winning team on the field every year, I, like most Sox fans, have grown accustomed to being disappointed and having to utter the infamous rallying cry of the old Brooklyn Dodgers, “Wait Till Next Year.” Of course, this pessimism Sox fans share was proven wrong when Boston finally won the World Series in 2004, but I can tell you from someone who lives in the heart of Red Sox nation, we’re not satisfied with just that one, and having won in ‘04 neither erased all of the heartaches of previous years, nor last year’s when the team was swept out the playoffs by the eventual World Champion White Sox.

A lot has happened with the Red Sox this off-season. There was the Manny saga, Theo leaving and then coming back, Johnny Damon leaving and signing with the arch-rival Yankees, the Josh Beckett trade, etc. Most who have observed the team closely over the winter would say that the team was in disarray over the off-season, with no real direction. A valid argument could even be made that the team the Sox have now is worse than the ‘05 version. Even given that, most years that would still be good enough that fans would feel comfortable that the team would at least be able to make the playoffs as the Wild Card. However, that simply is not the case this year. Most of the top AL teams have improved over the winter, and Boston by no means will be able to cruise to the playoffs.

The main difference in the AL this year is that in most years since 1993, when the Wild Card was introduced, there were four, maybe five teams which had a shot at the postseason at the start of the year. Like many members of Red Sox nation, I confidently assumed that even if they didn’t beat out the Yankees for the division, they would easily get the Wild Card, even though they might be faced with some opposition from a team out west, such as Oakland. However, this year, there are nine teams in the AL – three from each division – which have a legitimate shot at not only making the playoffs, but wining the pennant. Here are those nine teams, listed in order of how I believe their record will be in 2006.

1. Chicago White Sox – Is this team better than last year’s club that won the World Series? Yes, it is. And here’s why: pitching, pitching, pitching. A staff which was great last year will be even better this time around. As good as the rotation was last season, Jon Garland was really the only one who pitched over his head. He’ll come back down to earth a little, but they made up for that by acquiring Javier Vazquez for Orlando Hernandez, which is certainly an upgrade. Expect another great year from Mark Buehrle, and while Jose Contreras won’t be as good as he was last September, he did show that he is really coming into his own, and his overall numbers should be better this year than they were in 2005. Finally, Freddy Garcia had a solid, unspectacular year last year; expect similar numbers in ‘06. Oh yeah, and in case any of those guys get hurt, they have Brandon McCarthy waiting in the wings, who pitched well last year when given the chance. So, overall the rotation is just as good – if not better – than it was last year.

The bullpen, despite a couple of changes in the closer role, was one of the better ones in the AL in 2005. Bobby Jenks emerged as a top-notch fireman towards the end of the year, especially in the playoffs, and should provide stability at the closer job this year. Dustin Hermanson, Damaso Marte, and Cliff Politte all return to provide solid releif. My Prediction: AL Central champs and best record in AL.

As far as the lineup is concerned, the major change was the trading of CF Aaron Rowand to Philadelphia for Jim Thome. Thome replaces Carl Everett at DH, while Rowand is replaced in CF by top prospect Brian Anderson. Anderson should do just as well as Rowand did last year, and if healthy, Thome is clearly an upgrade over Everett. I see a slight dropoff in the production of Jermaine Dye, but he’s the only regular I can say that about. Overall, this is a better offense than last year’s. They’ll really be able to mix small ball with long ball in a way White Sox fans will love – even more than they did last season. And the defense, which was also solid last year, should be just as good this year.

2. New York Yankees – Pitching wins championships, and while the Yanks’ pitching is good, its offense is the strength of the team and will win them a lot of games. The Bronx Bombers also have what is clearly the best offense in baseball. The major change they made not only made them better, but made the other top offense from a year ago, Boston, weaker. I’m obviously referring to New York’s signing of Johnny Damon. Damon will be a great table-setter, enabling Derek Jeter to hit second, where he is better suited. They’ll be followed by Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui. I’m shaking just thinking about it. The bottom third of the lineup isn’t too shabby either, with Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and a combination of rookie Andy Philips and Bernie Williams. Good luck, AL pitchers.

Speaking of pitchers, the Yankees have seven starting pitchers, which probably isn’t a bad idea when you consider all of the injuries their rotation suffered in 2005. The depth will definitely help.

3. Oakland Athletics – After starting the year very slowly, Oakland, as usual, had a great second half. The A’s made a nice run at the playoffs, but came up short. Despite not making any major offseason changes, they are definitely better than they were last year. Why is that? Youth. Starting pitcher Barry Zito and third baseman Eric Chavez have both been on all of the wining teams they’ve had over the past few years, but outside of that duo, almost all of the key players are very young. Not only are these guys young, but they’re very talented, and will only continue to get better. Who are these up-and-comers? Let’s see … 1B Dan Johnson; OF Nick Swisher; SS Bobby Crosby; RPs Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer; and SPs Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton. I can’t remember such a good nucleus of young players in a long time. With another outstanding pitching staff, I like this team to win the West.

4. Cleveland Indians – In 2005, the Indians were a favorite of many to be a suprise team, and they didn’t disappoint. They exceeded most expectations, and barely missed the playoffs. Like last year, they will again have one of the top offenses and pitching staffs in the AL. The offense will be even better this year, as the lineup if young and getting better. Take the four best hitters, DH Travis Hafner, CF Grady Sizemore, C Victor Martinez, and SS Jhonny Peralta, for example. All four are young, rising stars. Bob Wickman is back as the closer and set for another good year. CC Sabathia, who had a great second half, should be just as good this season. SP Cliff Lee is another young, rising star and Jake Westbrook is also in line for another solid campaign. He had a couple bad starts early in the year, and didn’t get much run support, making his numbers look worse than they were. The major defections from the team were OF Coco Crisp and SP Kevin Millwood, who led the AL in ERA in 2005. They’ll be replaced by Jason Michaels and Paul Byrd, respectively. While both are slight downgrades, the young guys getting better makes up for it. Last year was their coming out party, and this year the Indians have more experience and know what to expect, especially when September comes and they’re fighting for a playoff spot. They won’t choke at the end this time, and I expect them to win the Wild Card.

5. Boston Red Sox – With all that has happened to the Sox this off-season, some good and some bad, the question is: Is this a better team than the one that won the Wild Card and then got swept by the White Sox? As someone who has followed them all off-season, I say no. They haven’t gotten that much worse, but in my opinion, they’re simply not as good as last year. You cannot underestimate the loss of Johnny Damon. Coco Crisp is good, but he is nowhere close to being the leadoff hitter Damon is. Damon had an uncanny knowledge of the strike zone and would use that to his advantage by working counts. The bullpen is a little better, and the addition of Beckett will help the rotation. Plus, Curt Schilling should be healthy and have a solid year, though he’ll be nothing like his pre-2005 self. While the pitching will be better, the offense won’t. Even if they’re not quite as good as last year, they still have a good team, and will compete for a playoff spot.

6. Anaheim Angels – Anaheim has been a perennial contender in the AL, and won the AL West last year. While the Angels didn’t exactly get better during the off-season, they didn’t get worse. However, gioven the state of the American League, that might not be good enough for a playoff spot. They have a good mix of stars, like RF Vladimir Guerrero and SP Bartolo Colon, young up-and-coming players like 1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Chone Figgins, SP Ervin Santana, closer Francisco Rodriguez, and RP Scot Shields, as well as veterans like CF Darin Erstad, LF Garret Anderson, RP Brendan Donnelly, SP Kelvin Escobar, and SS Orlando Cabrera. They have one of the better offenses and rotations in the AL, but probably the best part of the team is the bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez is one of the top closers in baseball. Plus, they have three of the better set-up men in the game with righties Donnelly and Shields, along with lefty JC Romero. Look for another good year from the Angels.

7. Toronto Blue Jays – A lot has been made about all of the Blue Jays’ moves to improve their team for the 2006 season. Before the off-season, their roster was little more than SP Roy Halladay and OF Vernon Wells. However, with the additions of 3B Troy Glaus, SP AJ Burnett, closer BJ Ryan, 1B Lyle Overbay, and C Benjie Molina, that has all changed. They now will have one of the better teams in the AL in terms of both offense and pitching. This was already a team that was playing pretty well before Halladay went down with an injury and was out for the year. He’s back and healthy, plus they have all of these new talented guys. The fact that this is the seventh-best team in the AL really says something about how deep the league is.

8. Texas Rangers – With a squad led by great young hitters like 2B Michael Young, 3B Hank Blalock, and 1B Mark Teixeira, Texas has surprisingly come close to making the playoffs each of the last two years. Surprising not because of the excellent offense, but because of their awful pitching. For each of the past two years, their fans have been left asking themselves, “If only we had some pitching.” Well, now they finally do, or at least they have better pitching than they have had in the past. Although they lost Kenny Rogers and Chris Young, they replaced them with three solid SPs in Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton, and Vicente Padilla, who definitely give the rotation an upgrade. While you shouldn’t expect amazing years from these three, they do present at least a slight upgrade, and this is a team that was competing for a playoff spot for most of last year. However, if they’re able to somehow sign Roger Clemens to a one-year deal, they would shoot up these rankings.

9. Minnesota Twins – A lot of people forget about all of the success Minesota had in going to the playoffs prior to 2005. This year’s edition is just as good as those teams. What really held them back last year, and left them unable to compete with Chicago and Cleveland in their division, was their anemic offense. The offense will be much better this time, however. They suffered a downgrade in RF, as Jacque Jones signed with the Cubs. He’ll be replaced by Jason Kubell. However, they upgraded at 2B, with the addition of Luis Castillo, a solid leadoff man. He’ll combine with LF Shannon Stewart to give Minnesota two above-average table-setters. Justin Morneau, one of the better young hitters in baseball, was slowed last year by a injuries and inconsistency. He should be much improved in 2006. What really slowed down the offense more than anything last year, however, happened around mid-season when star CF Torii Hunter went down with an injury. Hunter was out for the year, and the offense immediately suffered. He’ll be ready to go come spring training, and that will pay dividends not only offensively, but defensively as well, as he’s arguably the best defensive CF in the game. With an already solid pitching staff, and an improved offense, the Twins round out the “Big Nine” in the AL.

(That’s right, I’m leaving the Red Sox out of the playoffs. As hard as that is for me, I get the satisfaction of knowing that I’m being an objective writer…)

The AL hasn’t been this deep in recent memory, and this year it will be harder to make the postseason in the AL than it has been since the Wild Card was introduced in 1993. The Red Sox overcame a lot last year, most notably injuries and ineffectiveness of pitchers Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke to still win the Wild Card. Because the competion is so much greater, if they have such obstacles this year, I’m afraid they’ll be sitting at home come October. Welcome to the American League in 2006.

Jeremy Leveille is a SilentReader, as he is known to forum regulars, no longer now that he has joined the ranks of the Cafe's writers with this debut article.

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