2006 Third Base Forecast

In part two of our ongoing position-by-position preview series, we turn our attention to third base, the “hot corner.” A good third bagger is fearless, possesses the instincts of a cat, owns a rifle arm, and wields a thunderous bat. Paired with your first baseman, the corner infielders constitute the meat and potatoes of both fantasy teams and major league lineups. Naturally, you should receive power, runs, and a solid batting average from your corner outfielders as well, but your first and third sackers should serve as the backbone of a strong fantasy offense.

This season third base is again awash in talent, offers solid depth, and features several multi-tool prospects. This piece examines the top ten, plus players both on the rise and in decline, offers a prediction for this season’s Comeback Player of the Year, and also takes a look at a sleeper or two. And now, without any further ado … on to fantasy baseball’s third baggers!

The Cream of the Crop

Alex Rodriguez (NYA)
Just as he did last season, A-Rod tops this list and warrants first overall pick consideration. The Yankee third baseman exceeded not just my humble projections of .290/38/110 last year, A-Rod exceeded virtually everyone’s expectations. Without doubt, Rodriguez posted impressive stats, led the Yankees in multiple offensive categories, and played in 162 of 162 regular season games. However, a few words about A-Rod’s home runs … and about his hitting in general. There’s a misperception out there and the guy’s received criticism from many sources for having “an empty average,” for hitting his round trippers, all 48 of ‘em, when nobody was on base.

Allow me the luxury of a brief tutorial. Overall, A-Rod hit .290 with runners in scoring position (RISP), recorded a slugging percentage of .484 with RISP, and his numbers only improved with two outs. With two men down and RISP, A-Rod hit at a hefty .330 clip, put up a .429 OBP, and posted a SLG % of .512. Clearly, those are anything but “empty numbers.” In addition, Rodriguez has become a Gold Glove caliber third baseman, clubbed his way to the American League home run title, and won another small accolade - A-Rod beat out Boston’s behemoth David Ortiz for AL MVP honors.

This season, with the Yankee lineup still loaded with beef and boasting a legit leadoff hitter in CF Johnny Damon, there’s no reason to believe that Rodriguez won’t replicate his incredible ‘05 production. Look for the Yankee third bagger to again represent with something like .333/46/135, and 18 SB.

David Wright (NYN)
The incomparable Flava Flav, formerly of the band Public Enemy but now known as MTV’s answer to The Bachelor, had a song: “Don’t Believe the Hype.” If you elected to not believe the hype about Wright, you missed out on a player who, at the tender age of 25, looks a helluva lot like a young Scott Rolen … but may even be better! With above-average speed for his position and a compact swing that belies his 30+ HR power, Wright has also been known to flash some fine leather.

And yet as good as David Wright has been over the span of his brief big league career (all two season’s worth), Met insiders believe that he’s only just begun to scratch the surface of his enormous potential. Wright does, however, need to continue honing his glove-work (while good, he needs to learn to both charge balls and “go with the tricky hop”), improve upon his plate discipline, and cut down upon his strikeouts. Wright committed 24 errors and his strikeout to at bat ratio was 1:5 in ‘05. But that’s just nickle and dime criticism. Couple the third baseman’s near limitless ceiling with the vastly improved talent that surrounds him in the New York lineup, and you may well be looking at an ‘07 first-round fantasy pick.

As things stand today, Wright just can’t supplant A-Rod as the top player at the position. With Rodriguez’s brutish power, RBI numbers, and teammates, that’s just not gonna happen. However, the Mets’ “C & C Factory” of Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran; Jose Reyes; Cliff Floyd; Paul LoDuca; and other, lesser-known lights such as top prospect Lastings Milledge; newcomer RF Xavier Nady; and incumbent RF Victor Diaz, should provide the burgeoning ballplayer with solid protection and frequent RBI chances. Coming off of his first full big league season, Wright’s a certain keeper in keeper leagues, projects to be a second-round pick in mixed league formats, and rates a first-round ranking in NL-only leagues. Think your second pick is too high a price to pay for a potential 30+/100+ talent? Fine, “don’t believe the hype,” but we’ll see what place your team’s in come the All-Star Break!

With all the new blood, speed, and power in and around Wright, pencil him in for .315/33/118, with 18 SB.

Aramis Ramirez (ChN)
Ramirez still possesses a world of fantasy upside, even at this stage of his career. At age 27, he’s peaking physically and finally grasping the game’s numerous intangibles. A top 5×5 league option, although a strained muscle effectively ended Ramirez’s season a month and change early (he finished the campaign with 123 games played), he still managed to round-out his owners’ stat sheets. A statistical wonder, if not for his injury A-Ram would’ve been slotted second on this cheat sheet. Along with top-tier first baseman Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez is at the core of the remade Chi-town lineup. Amongst others, new centerfielder Juan Pierre brings eye-blink speed, new rightfielder Jacque Jones will help to bolster the middle of the lineup, and manager Dusty Baker will be auditioning some top prospects. Amid all the excitement, look for Ramirez to again be a fantasy weapon par excellence: .310/35/110.

Scott Rolen (StL)
Do not overlook Scott Rolen this season. After a collision with Hee-Seop Choi re-injured his already damaged shoulder, Rolen went on the DL in early May and was forced to undergo reconstructive surgery. Expected back at 100% or close to it, the Cards’ corner infielder should be in position to post rock-solid RBI and run totals. Hitting within a lineup that includes gritty, proven, productive players such as CF Jim Edmonds (another health risk), 1B Albert Pujols, SS David Eckstein and 2B Aaron Miles, if Rolen can keep all of his joints intact (and that’d be no small feat), the guy will benefit from tremendous protection and should put up some impressive totals. As it did last season, though, the threat of injury remains looms large. Thus, make a solid third base backup or a guy who offers flexibility at the position a draft day priority … just in case.

Keep all your fingers crossed, but if Scott can get rollin’, the prolific batsman could be good for something resembling .287/32/118. That could be a tad high … but if Rolen remains upright, they could even be a touch low. My Fantasy Magic-8 Ball states that Rolen’s season outlook appears to be “Murky at Best! Try Again Later…”

Chone Figgins (Ana)
Figgins is baseball’s answer to the Swiss army knife. In 2005, the speedy Figgins played 2B (42 games), 3B (56), SS (4), LF (15), RF (8), CF (50), and even served as a DH (7). One of the best bargains in all of baseball, Figgins’ ‘05 salary was just $390,000.

The only positions Figgy’ did NOT play were P, C, and 1B, he hit leadoff, 2nd, 6th, and 9th while providing phenomenal “bang for your buck” value. In conjunction to his multi-positional value, the fleet-footed Angel was admirably consistent with his Louisville Slugger: Figgins hit .281 before the All-Star Break and .300 after it.

An attractive early-rounder in AL-only formats, the dude’s speed and value render him a low mid-rounder in mixed leagues, and at 28, Figgy’s got at least five more highly productive seasons ahead of him. All we’re concerned with, though, is 2006: .295/10/63, with 55 thieved bags.

Note: 3B Prospect Dallas McPherson remains in the Angel fold. Recovering from hip surgery, it’d take a near miracle for McP’ to bump Figgins to another position.

Eric Chavez (Oak)
Eric Chavez should probably be moved up a couple of slots on this list, and no doubt there’s a reader or three ranting and raving about my listing him seventh. Please use these lists as guides - they’re not gospel! Some mags and baseball sites have Chavez ranked as high as #2 after A-Rod … others as low as ninth behind an eighth-ranked Chipper Jones.

That being said, I despise hyperbole and exaggeration, but in sports and athletics the two go hand in hand. One player is “the next Mickey Mantle,” another “may be the closest thing we’ve seen to Nolan Ryan.” You get the point. And yet, in sum, Billy Beane’s body may host one of the sharpest baseball minds ever. Beane has an uncanny eye for tools and talent, has a remarkable knack for trading over-priced players for dollar-friendly contributors, and is just a terrific all-around baseball man. After letting guys such as 1B Jason Giambi and SS Miguel Tejada go, Beane refused to part with his third baseman, Eric Chavez, and now we know why. A blossoming talent, Chavez can hit for power, has above-average speed, and can spray the ball to all fields. The Oakland A’s mentality - blue-collar players possessing a nose-to-the-grindstone style - is embodied within Eric Chavez.

There is a concern, though. In ‘04, Chavez played in 125 games, missed 37 to a hand injury, amongst other nicks, and saw 475 plate appearances. In those ABs, he hit .276 with a SLG % of .501 and an OBP of .397, and deposited 29 balls into the stands. In 2005, Chavez played in 35 more games and enjoyed 150 more at bats. And yet in those ABs, Chavie’s average was seven points lower … no big deal there, but he also posted a SLG % that at .466 was almost 40 points lower, an OBP that at .329 was almost 70 points lower, and in all those ABs, he hit two fewer dingers.

With a nice mix of young, hungry players (OF Nick Swisher, SS Bobby Crosby, 1B Dan Johnson) and veteran hitters (DH Frank Thomas, OF Milton Bradley) supporting him, look for Chavez’s numbers to creep up this season: .280/31/115, with eight SB.

Chipper Jones (Atl)
Checking in at #8 this year: Chipper Jones. A Hot-lanta mainstay, the former OF turned 3B is now 34 and has entered a slow but noticeable decline. The last time Chipper played as many as 140 games was in ‘03, but last season’s 109 games were by far the fewest of his career. The bright side of things? After returning from that whole tendon thing, Jones took some time to fully recover, but really found his groove following the All-Star break as he banged his way to a .307/14/46 second half. As every professional athlete must, the veteran Brave has stepped into the twilight of a notable career in which he has posted a .303 lifetime batting average; .538 career SLG %; 331 career HR; 1,111 career RBIs; and 1,101 career runs scored.

Although his mind is willing, Chipper’s body is increasingly unable. Look for two (maybe three) more seasons in the bright Georgia sun for Chipper, but to expect him to play in 150+ games would be ambitious at best. Nevertheless, so long as he remains healthy, Chipper Jones is a near lock for something resembling .291/27/105.

Morgan Ensberg (Hou)
Although he’s no youngster at age 29, Ensberg had his breakout season last year. Available to many owners via the waiver wire in 2005, Ensberg will be pulled off of most mixed league draft boards by the sixth round this year, and probably sooner in 12-team leagues. Houston’s slammin’ third sacker enjoyed a career year (.283/36/101, six SB) last season, and was a big reason why the team made it to the World Series. Although his home run stroke faltered after the All-Star break (24 HR before the break and 12 after), Ensberg was a consistent force and should remain an exemplary fantasy player for at least three to four more years. With capable bats sprinkled throughout the ‘Stro lineup, pitchers can ill afford to target Ensberg. Should you draft or expend a keeper slot on the Houston power hitter, look for a steady .285/33/100.

Hank Blalock (Tex)
Still an awfully attractive third base option, the fourth-year Ranger’s numbers - every one of ‘em - saw a slight decrease from his tremendous ‘04 campaign. Blalock didn’t exactly slump last year; let’s call it an “adjustment season.” Just 25, Hammerin’ Hank has recorded 25/90 (or more) in three consecutive seasons and is poised to make the leap to elite status.

Paired with bookend first bagger Mark Teixeira and in a virtual “Murderer’s Row” lineup, Blalock should even out his game this season (20 of his 25 homers were at home last year, and he hit .231 on the road as compared to .297 in Texas) and stands to post career-best numbers. The Rangers’ starting pitching remains a big question mark, but there’s no doubt about the lineup, so I’m lookin’ for a substantial leap in Hank’s numbers. Pen the Ranger powerhouse in for a very productive fantasy season of .280/35/115 (give or take a HR or four and a ribbie or ten).

Troy Glaus (Tor)
Glaus has never played 162 games in a season. He did, however, play 91 in ‘03, 58 in ‘04, and a vastly improved 149 in ‘05. Not yet 30, Troy Glaus has rare talent, teeth-rattling power, and is a prototypical 3B. Unranked last season due to his inability to remain healthy and off the trainer’s table, Glaus is now with his third team in as many seasons. The long-time Angel was sent to Arizona for ‘05 where he hit .258/37/97, ‘Zona then exiled him to Toronto this past off-season. At the height of his physical powers, assuming Glaus can remain relatively healthy the guy has elite potential and could be a top five run-producer at his position.

Although the Blue Jays don’t boast an embarrassment of offensive riches, guys like Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Alexis Rios, and Lyle Overbay should provide Glaus with a modicum of protection and ample ribbie opps. Should he remain intact for consecutive seasons … eh, .255/35/90 sounds about right.

Players on the Rise

Jorge Cantu (TB)

Note: With Sean Burroughs now a Devil Ray, Cantu will play second base. He may still see some action at the corner, however.

Just after the start of last season, the versatile Jorge Cantu proved that 2004’s 50-game, .301/2/17 “cup of coffee” was no fluke. Cantu can do! Not diminishing Cantu’s value any is his ability to qualify as a second Baseman with 80 games played as a middle infielder. Accordingly, the valuable Devil Ray responded to all the attention with a .286/28/117 season.

The Tampa lineup promises to be a virtual track team with LF Carl Crawford (46 SB), CF Rocco Baldelli (who missed all of ‘05, but thieved 44 bags between ‘03 and ‘04), rookie RF Delmon Young (32 SB between Double and Triple A last season), and SS Julio Lugo (39 SB, and often overlooked at his position) taking the field in ‘06. Therefore, Cantu’s potential for a big RBI season increases substantially. If there is a knock on the Ray 3B, it’s that he must learn to stop chasing balls that are off the plate. Although he’s sharpened his batting eye and can turn on the inside pitch in a hurry, Jorge Cantu remains a free swinger.
Let us assume that the D-Ray practices a bit more discretion at the dish, and project for .295/31/125, with five SB.

Joe Crede (ChA)
The long-time White Sox prospect has always been on the cusp of stardom and success, he’s just never quite made the leap. Now, in the prime of his career and backed by an aggressive, “atta boy” coach in Ozzie Guillen, Crede could be on the verge of the breakout season the Chicago ownership has been waiting for since … like, ‘01. Well worth a late round flyer, Crede’s got a nice crowd surrounding him in Chicago’s lineup. Without looking for miracles, look for .270/27/80.

Comeback Player of the Year

Nomar Garciaparra (LA)
Eligible at third and short, look for Nomah to play first base in an effort to keep him healthy and his potentially potent bat in a potentially soft LA lineup. Assuming Nomar’s groin and other muscles remain where they’re supposed to (that is, attached to the bone), he could return to the land of .295/25/100.

Top Sleeper

Garrett Atkins (Col)
Last season’s rookie success story could become this season’s third base fantasy staple. Hitting in the rare air of Colorado’s Coors Field and behind both Todd Helton and the emerging Matt Holiday, pitchers will be inclined to go right after Atkins. A well-disciplined hitter who should improve upon last season’s excellent numbers (.287/13/89), Garrett Atkins has .300 potential and rates a sixth (or so) round pick in mixed league formats. Look for “Axe” to hack his way to something akin to .298/20/110.

Deeper Sleeper

Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
After visiting “The Show” for 30 games last season, Zimm’ may not be such a sleeper. Undrafted out of high school, the youngster starred at the University of Virginia, blew up for Team USA (while using a wood bat), and subsequently rocketed through the Nationals system. Putting his 58 AB to excellent use, Washington’s future third baseman hit at an impressive .397 clip, with 10 doubles and a SLG % of .569. An early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors, owners belonging to mixed leagues who wish to snatch him should do so in the later rounds . The 11th, give or take, should be about right; anticipate something like .300/15/75.

Player In Decline

Joe Randa (Pit)
If you belong to a mixed league, then Randa rates as nothing more than bench-meat. If you participate in an NL-only league, then he’s actually got some late-round value. A child of the ’60s, literally, Randa’s old enough (in baseball terms) to fart dust, but still retains some pop, and therefore might be an adequate injury fill-in, second- or third-string 3B, or part-time utility player.

He hit a reasonable .276/17/68 last season, but that was for a far more powerful and talented Reds team, which he joined during the season following a trade from San Diego. There are a few players of consequence on Pittsburgh’s roster, such as stud-in-the-raw OF Jason Bay , fellow OF Jeromy Burnitz, and aging 1B Sean Casey (also late of the Reds). I would expect Randa’s power numbers (a very nice 43 doubles and two triples in ‘05) to take a hit as he has light protection and opposing pitchers will have no compunction about going right at him. If he can stay healthy and not lose too many at bats to fellow 3B Freddy Sanchez, Randa could be as good as .270/15/55.

Up next: fantasy baseball’s shortstops!

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