Strategy

March 23, 2006

2005 Second Base Forecast Reviewed

Ah, second base, home to the defensively questionable and hiding place of the weak-armed infielder! Unlike the emarrassment of Roto riches at first, third and short, there’s a dramatic drop-off in both depth and talent after the very few elite second basemen, and without doubt this is fantasy baseball’s thinnest position. If you hope to snare a top-tier second sacker, then you’ll need to expend an early pick on him. Further, many of the better second baggers are youngsters who have yet to prove themselves capable of being consistent commodities.

Nevertheless there’s value to be had, particularly among the mid-pack players, if you know where to look for it … or are willing to take a gamble. And experienced owners are well aware that fantasy baseball, just like its real-life counterpart, is about calculating risks. But before we bust down the position for 2006, let’s take a look and see how last season’s players and projections panned out.

Last Season’s Top Second Basemen

Alfonso Soriano (Tex)
Last Season I Said: “Wow! As talented a player as he is, watching Soriano bat can be an exercise in frustration. … Assuredly not the most discriminating of hitters, Soriano frequently displays poor plate discipline, seemingly has no plan, and will fish for pitches that are well out of the strike zone. … Soriano strikes out almost once every five at bats (for you stat fiends, it actually works out to be 1 K/4.86 plate appearances). Nevertheless, … look for Soriano to improve upon last season’s very solid numbers.

Note: It’s looking more and more likely that Soriano will be permanently moved to the leadoff spot. If that should be the case, look for his home runs and RBI to dip, and his swiped bags total to climb as high as 35.”

In Reality: His batting average may have dropped a few points, but a .268/36/104, 102 run, 171 hit, 43 double, 30 SB season rendered the Texas second baseman a valuable fantasy commodity indeed! In fact, Sorrie joined the select company of Jeff Kent and Rogers Hornsby as the only second basemen to hang three consecutive 30-dinger seasons. Last year was also the now former Ranger’s third 30/30 season.

Sent to the Washington Nationals for a package featuring OF Brad Wilkerson, Soriano remains surly and his stay in our nation’s capitol may well be a brief one.

Marcus Giles (Atl)
Last Season I Said: “Giles is a classic example of how far old-fashioned hard work can take you. … [He] recorded a phenomenal .316/21/69 with 14 SB and a slugging percentage of .526 in ‘03. A collision with teammate Andruw Jones that resulted in a broken collarbone significantly abbreviated Giles’ ‘04 season … And even upon his return, Giles was at less than 100% … Nonetheless, of his 118 hits last season, 32 were of the extra base variety. Giles is a rare breed: a second baseman who offers very good power, will hit for average, possesses excellent speed, will take a walk, and doesn’t K too often. Expecting Giles back at full strength, the Brave coaching staff expects their 2B to approach the numbers he posted in ‘03, and you should too: .315/20/70 with 15 SB.”

In Reality: Some mags and sites call Giles “a notch below elite,” but his ‘05 diggies of .291/15/63, with 104 Runs, 16 swiped bags, and 45 doubles would indicate otherwise. Other second baseman may have hit hit more homers and many drove in more runs, but for all-around production, Giles is a multi-category contributor, and that’s where his value lies. Any owner that drafted Giles for his ribbies and home runs doesn’t know fantasy baseball. As for my projections, I missed his average by 24 points, HR by five, RBI by seven, and SB by one. So-so accuracy, and slotting him in the two-spot last year might’ve been slightly ambitious … but few owners will quibble.

Jeff Kent (LA)
Last Season I Said: “While he’s not going to win anyone’s “Mr. Congeniality” award, Kent has walloped more home runs than any second baseman in history while averaging 28 homers and 102 RBI over the past three seasons. … There are however, valid concerns in ranking Kent at the three spot. … Kent should be ranked as high as second or as low as seventh at his position. In years past, Kent would have vied with Soriano for the top slot. However, Kent is now 37, and if he were any slower there would be a grave danger of his growing roots. In conjunction with his distinct lack of speed and advanced age, an off-season move to Dodger Stadium could negatively impact his numbers. But having demonstrated an ability to hit in pitchers’ parks, look for Kent to post one more solid fantasy season. Still, I’d look for the veteran’s numbers to take a modest dip and be close to .280/24/95 with four SB.”

In Reality: I called for a season of .280/24/95 with four SB, and Kent responded with the nearly the identical numbers of .289/29/105, and 6 steals. As mentioned above, Kent doesn’t go around the stadium kissing babies and glad-handing fans, but his consistency is most meritorious! After raising expectations for a slight correction in his offensive output due to an off-season move to Dodger Stadium, Kent remained remarkably consistent in his ability to hit in so-called pitcher’s parks. While he hit almost 60 points higher on the road, his home-to-road run and RBI splits were mirror images of one another (home 15/54, road 14/54), and Kent was, without doubt, the most consistent threat in LA’s lineup.

Second Base, Not Second Rate

Mark Loretta (SD)
Last Season I Said: “Forming a rock-steady double-play combination with his Padre compadre SS Khalil Greene, Loretta was San Diego’s MVP, participated in the All Star game, and had an all-around fantastic season. Loretta, who at last season’s start was undervalued and available through many leagues’ waiver wires, was remarkably productive. Swatting 208 hits (the first Padre to reach 200 hits since Papa Gwynn hung up the spikes), Loretta was constantly on the basepaths. … [H]e was no dink-and-dunk “seeing eye-ball hitter.” With a modest 16 HRs and an eye-opening 47 doubles, he also recorded 108 runs, 76 RBI, and with a microscopic 45 strikeouts out of a hefty 620 ABs, the San Diego second baseman was one of the toughest Ks in Baseball. Loretta’s numbers improved dramatically for the second consecutive season last year and it would be hard to imagine him improving even further. At age 33, expect his numbers to level off.”

In Reality: To anticipate a leveling off in an aging Loretta’s numbers was one thing, but to see them fall off the table was something else entirely! The former Padre tore ligaments in his left thumb in mid-May, was subsequently lost until mid-July, and played in just 105 contests. But even before the bum thumb, “M-Lo” suffered from a serious power outage. Prior to his injury, the middle infielder hit .300/.388/.344 in 160 AB, with five doubles, one triple, and one homer. In the 244 plate appearances following his return, he batted an even weaker .266/.342/.348, with eight doubles, zero triples, and a scant two long balls.

Mark Loretta’s injury-stained campaign came to a merciful conclusion, but not before he hung a final tally of .280/3/38, with 54 runs and 8 SB. Those numbers are a looong way from the .328/20/75 season I envisioned.

Jose Vidro (Was)
Last Season I Said: “A knee injury saw Vidro’s ‘04 season end in August. However, Vidro is now far away from Montreal’s archaic Astroturf and will be playing on the cushioned comfort of RFK Stadium’s natural grass. According to reports, the Washington Nationals’ second baseman is currently working out on a treadmill, taking grounders, and is expected back at full strength. … a lifetime .304 hitter, Vidro will again miss the mighty bat of OF Vladimir Guerrero, with whom he played in Montreal from 1997 to 2003. Nevertheless … pencil Washington’s second bagger in for a season of .310/16/80. Following two serious knee injuries, don’t look for Vidro to be a base-stealing factor.”

In Reality: Another year, another bevy of injuries. Vidro’s ‘04 “cam-pain” was curtailed by 52 games due to a knee injury that required reconstructive surgery, and last season ended even earlier, after just 87 games. A sprained left ankle sidelined the second sacker for two months, and further knee troubles cost Vidro all but five games in September. As opposed to undergoing additional surgery, team physicians recommended rest and rehab.

Over the span of his half-season, the 31-year-old veteran watched as every offensive stat took a tumble. Washington’s cavernous RFK Stadium seems to have that effect on numbers. In his 87 games, Jose hit .275/7/32, and had he played in 150 or so tilts, aside from a considerable drop in average, Vidro may well have approached the .310/16/80 line I set for him.

Although I considered slotting him as a second Comeback Player of the Year candidate, his relative frailty prohibits such a suggestion. Further, with recalcitrant Alfonso Soriano on the team and refusing to eager to return to the infield, and speedy, versatile Damian Jackson also on the roster, it’s entirely possible that Vidro gets shipped off to an AL team where he can serve as a DH.

Without the benefit of a crystal ball, owners must plan for Vidro to remain Washington’s second baseman as manager Frank Robinson stands firm in his intent to keep Soriano, a defensive liability at 2B, to the outfield where his iffy glove can do a bit less damage. If Vidro’s body can remain intact, he could be a solid fill-in starter and provide depth at second. That said, with RFK taking a bite out of his numbers and the threat of injury always lurking, there’s little doubt that Vidro can be gotten in the later rounds of mixed-league drafts. A solid value pick offering above-average production for a backup, look for a season approaching .295/12/55+.

Luis Castillo (Fla)
Last Season I Said: “It’s difficult to evaluate the Marlins’ second Baseman because he had such a poor ‘04 (by his standards, anyway). Although he doesn’t hit for power and seemingly has an allergy to RBIs, he nonetheless retains value due to his speed. Castillo’s stats might’ve suffered last season, at least in part due to a chipped bone in his pinkie. Look for Castillo’s numbers to rebound a bit and be close to .305/4/45 with 25 SB.”

In Reality: A litany o’ leg injuries (hip, quad, thigh, knee, and hamstring) suffered by Luis Castillo cost him 40 games last season, sapping his speed and zapping his base stealing ability. And, with speed serving as this second bagger’s calling card, an ‘05 of .301/4/30, with 10 SB, 12 doubles and four triples must be looked upon as a bitter disappointment.
I, however, am anything but disappointed in Castillo’s production, for I came within a hairs breadth of nailing Castillo to the number! I missed his average by four points, his HR total by just one, and overestimated his RBI and SB totals by 15 each.

Yet another ball player who doesn’t rate this season’s list, Castillo is headed for the Junior Circuit this year. After a decade spent in Marlin duds, Minnesota sent hurlers Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler to Florida and Castillo will supplant the largely unsuccessful Twin platoon of Nick Punto and Luis Rivas. In the 30-year-old infielder, manager Ron Gardenhire feels he has a legit leadoff or #2 hitter, and batting alongside speedy OF Shannon Stewart and siting atop the order instead of at the end of it, Castillo should see his batting average, runs, and RBI totals creep up a bit. Another solid sub-starter or backup, .290/3/50, with 85+ runs and 15 SB should be attainable.

Ray Durham (SF)
Last Season I Said: “Durham used to make his living off of great speed (he thieved 26 bags in ‘02). Having been hobbled by a litany of injuries in recent years however, Durham’s become a much more selective hitter and recorded a career low 60 strikeouts out of 532 ABs last season. Setting the table for the potent Giant lineup, the aging Durham led all National League leadoff men with 65 RBIs, and his 17 dingers ranked him third in that category. He’s a defensive liability, but that shouldn’t affect his fantasy value. Owners can anticipate at least one more productive offensive year out of Durham, who should post a line akin to .285/15/20 with 12 SB.”

In Reality: Allow me to preface: 20 RBI? That was obviously a typo, and in the original article I forecast a season of .285/15/60 with 12 SB for the veteran Giant. Ray Durham played in 142 games in 2005, his highest total since ‘02, and whacked his way to a .290/12/62, six SB season. Hot on the heels of Luis Castillo’s spot-on projection, I’m batting two-for-two! I missed Durham’s average by a fistful of points, his HR total by a scant three, and his ribbies by just two … or 42 if you go with the misprint! Not too shabby, fantasy friends.

Durham was, however, a walking M.A.S.H unit last year, having suffered finger, groin, back, wrist, heel, and hamstring injuries. He even sat out a game with an ingrown toenail! Yech. An assortment of leg injuries have robbed Ray of his greatest asset, his speed, and render him a below-average defensive ball player. Nevertheless, Durham can still wield the wood and his .290 BA was a career-high mark.

Still, I can’t and won’t push Durham as a top-tier 2B, and his offensive numbers may even enter a modest decline next season. Complicating matters for Durham are a severe case of plantar fasciitis as well as manager Felipe Alou. Durham served as San Fran’s fifth hitter for most of the year and hit a potent .323/.471/.378. And yet Alou is defying logic by contemplating moving Durham to the leadoff spot or two-hole. Statistically, such a move makes little sense as Durham hit a paltry .214/.262/.333 at the top of the order last year. But within the last few days it would seem as if Alou has dropped that stance, asserting that OF Randy Winn did a tremendous job hitting leadoff (.356/.688/.380 tremendous) for the team … “and I won’t mess with success.” Let us hope not.

Durham projects to hit third, and should Barry Bonds return to bat clean-up at even 75% of what he was, Ray can expect to see a lot of fastballs. Moving down in the order will likely result in fewer RBIs for the Giant 2B, but should help his run total increase. A credible back-up or flex player due to his high average, owners would be wise, however, to limit their hopes for another 140+ game season. The aging and increasingly injury-prone infielder looks like a 120-135 game, .275/14/50, five SB ballplayer at this late stage of his career.

On The Way Up

Kazuo Matsui (NYN)
Last Season I Said: “The New York Yankees did so well (both on and off the field) with their Matsui (OF Hideki), that the Mets management went out and acquired their own. But playing shortstop for the Mets last season proved to be very stressful for the former Japanese All Star. Being shifted to second base should benefit both Matsui and his owners, and such a move will provide Kaz with appreciable fantasy flexibility. Batting in the two-spot, Matsui must cut down on his strikeout total (97 strikeouts in 460 ABs). … At age 29 and with a full season under his belt to acclimate to New York and American baseball, Matsui offers nice upside. Jot the Met-sui for an improved season of .280/10/50 with 20 SB.”

In Reality: I said it before and I’m sayin’ it again: “Oy Vey!” With Bret Boone’s retirement on March 1 comes a battle for second. The contenders? The breathtakingly underwhelming Kaz Matsui (.255/3/24, with six SB in 87 games) against unprovens Anderson Hernandez (.056/00 in 18 ‘04 ABs … and that’s no misprint!) and Jeff Keppinger (.284/3/9 in 33 games last season). If you wanna get technical, Matsui played roughly 50% of the season, and if you extrapolate his diggies over the full 162-game schedule, you’d end up with something like .255/6/46, with 12 thieved bags. Close enough to my early-spring projection, but there’s no question that the “Met-Sui” has disappointed the fans who’ve flocked to Flushing to see him.

A former All-Star shortstop in the Japanese League, upon breaking into American Baseball in 2004, Kaz participated in 114 games and hit a semi-respectable .272/7/44, with 14 SB and 32 doubles. Only “semi-respectable” because a great deal more was expected from a player whom former Met manager Bobby Valentine coached in Japan and declared an All-Star caliber player. Matsui’s issues may be twofold. Firstly, at age 30 he’s no youngster, and secondly, he’s struggled to remain healthy. American baseball is far more physical than its Asian counterpart, and at 185 pounds soaking wet and with change in his pockets, Matsui may well have been ill-prepared to have 210-pound first baseman come crashing into him in the hopes of disrupting a double play.

While Jeff Keppinger offers promise, a solid spring will keep Kaz at second. Surrounded by great talent, if he can remain upright and healthy Kaz Matsui’s disciplined approach could result in something approaching .279/8/55, with 10+ SB. In essence, a quiet backup sleeper.

Aaron Miles (Col)
Last Season I Said: “Having spent nine long years toiling primarily in the Astro and White Sox minor league systems, no one can say that Miles hasn’t paid his dues. But when he finally got his chance in May of last year to bat leadoff for the Rockies, he took full advantage and recorded some very good stats of .293/6/47 with 12 SB. With an OBP of .329, Miles just isn’t your typical leadoff hitter. He is however, a contact hitter who keeps the ball down, and he led all rookies with 153 hits and 75 runs. … The concern here is the number of rookies the team will be trotting out. That much youth will surely result in growing pains, both offensively and defensively. Let’s be conservative here; a line of .299/7/55 with 14 SB are certainly attainable numbers in the rare air of Coors Field.”

In Reality: It seems as if I interpreted the then-Rockie rookie’s season numbers (’04) incorrectly, and I certainly didn’t see his ghastly sophomore season coming! A free swinging switch-hitter, Miles lacked any apparent command of the strike zone last year and recorded a brutal walk to strikeout ratio. In 324 ABs, Miles whiffed 38 times compared with a microscopic eight walks. At first glance, .281/2/28 with four SB, 12 doubles, and three triples doesn’t seem so bad, right? But consider that Miles recorded a line of .347/.412/.360 in Colorado’s comfy confines … and .208/292/.247 outside of it. Those numbers are no longer quite so impressive, are they?

Even if St. Louis’ newest middle infielder somehow manages to beat out both Junior Spivey (.232/7/24, nine SB in 259 ABs) and Hector Luna (.285/1/18, 10 SB in 137 ABs) for the starting job, the only category he looks to be a contributor in is runs. Bottom line? At best, he’ll see action in between 50 and 60 games.

Brian Roberts (Bal)
Last Season I Said: “Batting atop another of the AL East’s Murderer’s Row-type lineups, Roberts sets the table for some mighty big boppers. A gap hitter who lacks home run power, Roberts has excellent speed, led the league with 50 doubles last season, and should build upon a very good ‘04. A stat line of .279/4/60 with 32 SB and 100 runs would be a reasonable projection.”

In Reality: A marginal .273/4/53 ‘04 campaign (very similar to the .270/5/41, 23 SB he posted in ‘03) ensured that Roberts was barely a blip on the Roto radar, and if not for a notable 29 swiped bags, the Oriole 2B would have remained thoroughly inconspicuous. But last season’s .379/8/26, 10 Stolen Base month of April (encompassing a preposterous .379/.726/.459, 1.185 OPS) caused many an owner to suffer what has since become known as “ESPNeck” or “highlight whiplash.” Compounding matters; an appreciable percentage of those same owners suffered additional bumps, bruises, and contusions in their haste to get to the waiver wire, but were well rewarded for their efforts. Roberts continued his out-of-nowhere offensive assault with a combined .357/5/18, 17 double, two triple, six SB May (1.009 OPS) and a rock-solid June (.942 OPS). While his power numbers waned, he maintained a high average and was a fixture on the basepaths.

“B-Rob’s” production returned to earth’s orbit over the summer and he concluded the ‘05 campaign with a line Nostradamus himself couldn’t have foreseen: .314/18/73 with 27 snagged bags, 92 runs, 45 doubles and seven triples. And as for my pathetic (in hindsight) preseason projection of .279/4/60 with 32 SB and 100 runs? That’s why they play the games. My stolen base and runs scored predictions were accurate … but who knew the 5′9″ 175 lb. former middling hitter would morph into Mighty Mouse!

Comeback Player of the Year

Todd Walker (ChN)
Last Season I Said: “A somewhat streaky hitter who needs to play every day in order to find his stroke, Walker will again be a full-timer. Possessing good pop, he should be a solid fantasy contributor. Of his 102 hits last season, 38 were for multiple bases and on average, every two hits yielded an RBI. That’s pretty good production in limited time. Stretched over the course of a full season of ABs, let’s project a season of .293/18/65 for Walker.”

In Reality: Due to assorted injuries, Walker has missed substantial chunks of each of the past two seasons, and last year a balky knee cost the offensive-minded second sacker almost a full third of the year. But in the games he did play, “T-Walk” made the most of his opportunities and clubbed his way to a .305/12/40, 50 run, 25 double, three triple year. Had the Cubby 2B remained healthy and on the same pace, he’d have met or exceeded the .293/18/65 I called for. Given his age, predeliction for injury, and the fact that both Neifi Perez and Jerry Hairston are each gunning for the starting spot, Walker isn’t ranked this year.

Still, T-Walk won’t swing at trash and offers above-average power for a second baseman, something neither Perez nor Hairston can claim, and although Chicago has dangled him as trade bait he remains a Wrigley resident. If Walker can get his legs into game shape he’ll be the most likely candidate to win manager Dusty Baker’s nod of starting approval. A sneaky-good fantasy backup: .290/18/60.

Deep Sleeper

Chris Burke (Hou)
Last Season I Said: “Having proven everything there was to prove at Triple A, Houston promoted the young middle infielder up to the big club. Last season Burke went 1-17 in his limited engagement. Assuming he sticks, the speedster with gap power should provide fantasy owners with a more extensive look at his capabilities. If Burke’s your best option at second base however, frankly, you’ve got trouble. With no track record to rely upon… my fantasy Magic 8-Ball shakes out a season of, .239/5/50 with 22 SB.”

In Reality: My Magic-8 was pretty accurate when asked to divulge the secrets to Chris Burke’s upcoming ‘05 season. Available through virtually any Wal-Mart or Duane Reade, the 8-ball was dead-on accurate in calling for five round-trippers, and came within nine BA points. Burke started the year off slowly, but finished with the acceptable fantasy stats of .248/5/26, with 11 SB. Burke also became Houston’s hero when, in the fourth game of the NLDS, he crushed an 18th inning Joey Devine offering and sent it “deep into the Texas night.”

On the Way Down

Brett Boone (Sea)
Last Season I Said: “If you listen to Bret Boone, a horrible ‘04 season is squarely in his rear-view mirror and it’s full steam ahead for ‘05. Boone feels a substantially altered off-season regimen will aid him in rediscovering the form that allowed him to be one of baseball’s top all-around performers in ‘03 when he posted a line of .294/35/117 with 111 runs and a SLG% of .535. While I applaud the whole positive thinking approach, the guy is going to be 36. And, while he’s just old enough to run for President of these United States, Boone’s best days on the field are probably also in his rear-view mirror. Even with the lineup protection afforded by Ichiro, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, look for Boone’s numbers to at best be very similar to last year’s, if not to continue their slide: .255/25/85 with eight swiped bags.”

In Reality: To call Bret Boone’s production “a modest decline” would be like calling the Grand Canyon “a hole in the ground.” Boonie’s production didn’t slide or decline. Nope, Bret Boone’s level of play and career flat-lined. After a banner ‘03 season came “the decline” in 2004, when the veteran infielder posted pedestrian numbers (.251/24/83) and looked nothing like the player we’d seen in years past. In fact, his play prompted much sports talk radio chatter, finger-pointing, and “enhanced play” accusations. And while I won’t go that far, Boone’s career went “full steam ahead” alright, straight into retirement.

In ‘05, he hit .231/7/34 in 273 ABs as a Mariner, and .170/0/3 in 53 ABs as a Twin. After suffering the indignity of being cut by Seattle, Minnesota came calling. The three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover played just 14 games for Minnesota before they too cut him, and after entering Met camp as a non-roster invitee with no guarantee of a job, Boone has called a 14-year career quits. A lifetime .266/252/1,021 hitter with 1,775 hits to his name, Boone’s best season came in 2001 when he simply pulverized the ball at a .331/37/141 pace.

Tony Womack (NYA)
Last Season I Said: “Womack enjoyed a career year last season which coincided nicely with the St. Louis Cardinals’ 105-win campaign. Although he could surprise yet again batting ninth in the positively stacked Yankee lineup, smart money says no. A season of .277/3/30 with 20 SB will make Womack a solid but unremarkable second bagger.”

In Reality: Tony “No-Mack” was so whack, and his .249/0/15 season as a Yank underscores the wisdom (or lack thereof) of inking a veteran who hangs career numbers in his walk year a big-buck contract. ‘Mack was so bad, both offensively and defensively, that New York moved him to fill a hole in the outfield and brought young Robinson Cano up from Columbus, a serendipitous move to be certain for the Yankees.

Womack, now a Red, is with his sixth team in four seasons. Vying with promising Ryan Freel for the starting job at second, I’d steer clear, for Mack’ll knife your fantasy team!

A native of Brooklyn, Jamey Feuer now roots for the Yankees from his home in Northern New Jersey.

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