2005 First Base Forecast Reviewed

First Baseman are often seen as relatively unathletic compared with other infielders. Yet many first baggers, such as Texas’ Mark Teixeira and Chicago’s Derrek Lee, are big, nimble guys with quick feet and rare agility, and they’d take offense at such unflattering typecasting. That being said, perhaps more often than not a big bat is indeed put at first to disguise, or diminish, the damage of defensive ineptitude.

On fantasy rosters, your first baseman (along with your third bagger and corner outfielders) should fill a number of fantasy needs for you and your team. A solid fantasy 1B will hit for average and power; he’ll afford your team with 30+ HR, 95+ RBI, and 80+ runs.

Before looking ahead to the 2006 season, let’s take a quick look at my list and projections from last season and see how they panned out:

First Rate First Baseman

Albert Pujols (StL)
Last Season I Said: “As cool as the other side of the pillow, what can be said about this phenom that hasn’t been already? Pujols is certainly the best right-handed hitter in the game, probably the best hitter in the game, period, and arguably the best pure hitter since Joe D and the ‘happy-go-lucky’ Ted Williams trod the basepaths. Pujols, a perennial Triple Crown threat and top three overall fantasy pick, has finished second twice and third once in MLB’s MVP balloting over the past three seasons. A fantasy owner’s dream who is at (or darn close to) the top of the league in multiple offensive categories, here’s the kicker: with his strikeouts decreasing and his walk totals increasing, Pujols is actually improving! … Look for Pujols to again vie to be baseball’s first triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski and post eye-popping totals approximating .337/47/128 with a handful of stolen bases.”

In Reality: If nothing else, Pujols used last season to demonstrate that his level of excellence is no aberration. The Cards’ 1B is no flash-in-the-pan athlete. Although his stats saw a modest correction, they were by no means “soft”: .330/41/117, with 16 SB. Last season’s projection of .337/47/128 was off by seven batting average points, six long balls, and 11 RBI. As an added bonus to fantasy owners everywhere, Albie tripled his career swiped bag total. With a rock-solid OPS of 1.039 and an OBP of .430, Pujols has become the game’s most feared hitter … Barry Bonds included.

Todd Helton (Col)
Last Season I Said: “In the prime of his career at age 31, Helton has a ton of value as one of the top three fantasy options at first base. Last season saw a decline in Helton’s batting average, hits, runs scored, and RBI totals. That decrease, however, should be attributed to a case of the Rockie first bagger trying to do too much coupled with pitchers simply throwing around the talented batsman. That being said, Helton’s ‘diminished numbers’ of .347/32/96 would have been career-best digits for virtually any other player. This season, with more talent around him, look for Helton to post better numbers. Pencil the Colorado corner infielder in for .345/37/110 and four SBs.”

In Reality: Helton definitely benefitted from playing in the rare air of Colorado. A strong hitter over the span of his career, the first baseman also possesses a remarkable lifetime fielding percentage of .996, a mark he matched last season. An injury-shortened ‘05 campaign saw Helton play in 144 games wherein he belted out .320/20/79. His numbers fell precipitously, probably due to both his missed time and the lack of protection provided by an injury-thinned Rockie lineup.

Mark Teixeira (Tex)
Last Season I Said: “Texas’ pair of corner infielders, first baseman Mark Teixeira and third baseman Hank Blalock, are probably baseball’s most powerful pair of bookends. Teixeira, a skilled switch-hitter, has 40 homer ability. … A student of the game, [he] should have ample RBI opps with Ranger second bagger Alfonso Soriano most likely hitting leadoff, shortstop Michael Young hitting out of the two spot, and the aforementioned Hank Blalock batting third. As impressive as last year was for the young Ranger (.281/38/112), this season looks to be even better: .288/41/119 with five swiped bags.”

In Reality: Teixeira took a BIG step forward last season by winning his first Gold Glove Award and playing in every game. “Tex” broke 40 on the ol’ “Homerometer,” and is not only reaching the lofty expectations the team held for him when they drafted him out of Georgia Tech, but is doing so a bit sooner than they had dared to hope. The 2005 season saw the Ranger first bagger’s totals increase across the board; .301/43/144 with 112 runs scored and four SB. No doubt, his owners were thrilled to see my RBI and batting average projections fall far short.

David Ortiz (Bos)
Last Season I Said: “A mammoth of a man, the Red Sox first bagger, now made the full time DH, just looks every bit like a devastating hitter. In his case, however, looks aren’t deceiving. … Baseball observers say that Ortiz has no weakness in his swing and can hit virtually any pitch with impunity. ‘Big Papi’ … should turn in a season similar to .295/39/135.”

In Reality: As hard as it is to believe, Big Papi looked even larger and more physically imposing than he did during the ‘04 season, and his already impressive numbers certainly went **BOOM**! Ortiz’s name had been bandied about for league MVP honors, but the league and many fans were outraged (or at the least maintained strong opinions) at the prospect of a DH being awarded the MVP title. “Only position players deserve such consideration,” they stated from their very high horses. The debate actually turned into weeks of sports talk radio fodder, much to the delight of ESPN and WFAN. Whether you agree or disagree matters not, because the bottom line is indisputable: .300/47/148, with 119 runs scored, scary diggies for any ball player.

While my projections for Ortiz were on the, er, shall we say “anemic” side, Who could’ve anticipated that the DH (then classified as a 1B as well) would have one of the all-time great Sox seasons? Apparently not me, that’s for sure. I had Papi pegged for what I thought to be a very respectable .295/39/135. In actuality I was but five batting average points, eight home runs, and 13 ribbies shy. Close, but no cigar.

Just a Notch Below…

Carlos Delgado (Fla)
Last Season I Said: “Delgado started last season off rather slowly and was subsequently hindered by a rib cage injury that cost him the final five weeks of the campaign. Before he went down with the injury, however, Delgado rediscovered his swing and was red-hot from August 1st on, swatting .337 with 17 homers and 54 RBI. Clad in a new uniform and with good speed ahead of him in the lineup, look for Delgado to rebound this season and post a very solid, .279/35/107. Don’t look for speed on the basepaths, though. If Carlos steals even one base, it’ll be one more than he’s swiped since the ‘02 season.”

In Reality: After 12 seasons in Toronto, a lonely baseball outpost to be sure (ok, Montreal was far worse), Delgado was sent to Florida. The Marlins placed third in the NL East last year with an 83-79 record, and one very big reason the team remained even that competitive was … right, Senor Delgado and his lumber. The first baseman posted a very nice line of .301/33/115 (and no, he never did steal that base). After rubbing my “Magic Fantasy Eight-Ball” last spring and seeing a year of .279/35/107 for Delgado, I was remarkably close, save for his batting average: Carlos hit 21 points better than I’d anticipated.

Jim Thome (Phi)
Last Season I Said: “What’s not to like about Jim Thome, a guy that since ‘02 has deposited 141 balls into the cheap seats while adding 354 RBI and 309 runs to the back of his baseball cards? Before the ‘04 All-Star break, Philly’s prodigiously powerful 1B was hitting a hair under .290, with 28 home runs and 61 RBI already in the bank. Yeah, yeah, great. Thome’s off to an MVP-caliber season right? Wrong. The second half saw the nicked up Thome’s play slide into an appreciable decline (although his owners certainly didn’t appreciate it). His average fell to .253, he mashed but 14 more homers and tallied a mere 44 more RBI. … Thome hit a somewhat less than breathtaking .204 with RISP in ‘04 whilst whiffing a mighty 144 times out of 508 total AB. … So, why draft Thome? Because he still managed to top 40 dingers, because he again drove in more than 100 RBI, because his slugging percentage remains in excess of .570, and because he’s playing within the friendly confines of Citizen’s Bank Ballpark surrounded by talent. But savvy owners will be aware that at age 34 Thome has clearly peaked and may even have entered a modest decline. … Those same savvy owners can look for one more productive year of of the Philadelphia first baseman: .275/40/112.”

In Reality: You know, I’ve seen ‘em crash but never actually burn … but Jim Thome managed to do both last year. While I did include the warning that “savvy owners will be aware that at age 34 Thome has clearly peaked and may have even entered a modest decline,” few could have forseen the Philly first bagger’s horrifying 193 AB, .207/7/30 campaign (or should that be cam-pain?). Thome bottomed out, undoubtedly due to the injuries that substantially impacted his season.

Aubrey Huff (TB)
Last Season I Said: “Arguably Tampa Bay’s most valuable player, and an equally valuable fantasy player given his ample power … and ability to qualify at 3B, 1B, and, depending upon your league’s requirements, possibly OF as well. Huff started last season rather slooowly, but if he hits the basepaths running look for him to improve upon last season’s figures of .297/29/104. Let’s assume he will, and pencil him in for .305/33/105.”

In Reality: Huff disappointed Tampa Bay backers and fantasy owners alike last season, with a line of .261/22/92. While Huff did swipe eight bases, he was also nailed seven times. Speed merchant? It would seem not. Still a young player, every offensive statistical category dipped and his strikeouts increased. Huff eventually started to press at the plate to unfortunate results; the versatile Devil Ray fanned 74 times in ‘04 and 88 times in ‘05.
Although the first bagger should rebound and be a solid fantasy player, he still doesn’t make the top 10 list. Look for a better season from Huff, with numbers resembling .280/27/99.

Derrek Lee (ChN)
Last Season I Said: “Offering owners an intriguing blend of power (32 home runs with 98 RBI) and speed (33 SB over the past two seasons), Lee posted career highs in HR, RBI, hits and doubles last season. Assuming he stays healthy, Lee is part of a most imposing lineup and has the potential to record a very good .277/33/105 with 18 thieved bags.”

In Reality: An “intriguing blend of power and speed?” “Career highs” in ‘04? Projecting for a “very good .277/33/105″ in ‘05? Lee played out of his mind baseball all season long last year, was a Triple Crown candidate for most of the season, and most assuredly posted new career numbers in all categories! Although the team may have been a disappointment last year, the first baseman was anything but a letdown. Derreck Lee was a one-man wrecking crew and the heartbeat of the Chicago Cubs in ‘05, ripping and blasting his way through National League pitching: .335/46/107 with 120 runs scored and 20 swiped bags.

My humble prediction of .277/33/105 with 18 SB was accurate in terms of ribbies’ (I projected 105, Lee drove in 107) and stolen bases (I stated 18, Lee thieved 20), but again … who could have known that Lee would be so unconscious at the dish.

Sean Casey (Cin)
Last Season I Said: “Casey isn’t your prototypical first baseman … due to his lack of pop. While Casey led the Reds in seven different offensive categories last season, he just doesn’t crush pitches the way fellow 1Bs … do. What Casey offers is average, gap power, and excellent plate discipline which results in very few strikeouts. If [his] teammates … can stay healthy … Casey will enjoy wonderful protection and could record a season resembling, .320/23/95 with three SBs.”

In Reality: Ah well, another fantasy faux-pas. “In reality,” if I may quote myself, the corner infielder swatted a mere .312/9/58. These numbers represent a palpable deterioration in both real and fantasy productivity. Casey would have been better suited for the “Players in Decline” list than the “Just a Notch Below” category. Now a Pirate, keep an eye on Casey’s spring training and early season output. If he can turn his disappointment and embarrassment into motivation, he might well serve as a solid backup fantasy first baseman.

Paul Konerko (ChA)
Last Season I Said: “Even with … Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez shelved with various injuries last season, Konerko fell just two round trippers short of the AL home run title en route to a career year of .277/41/117 with a slugging percentage of .535. … The Sox have been cleaned, starched, pressed and virtually remade during this past off-season. With the addition of eye-blink quick center fielder Scott Podsednik setting the table … Konerko could see his RBI totals creep up a bit in ‘05. A line of .280/35/123 is certainly attainable for the powerful first baseman. … Pencil Konerko in for as many as one stolen base.”

In Reality: In no uncertain terms, Konerko keyed the White Sox’ World Series run with his ball-crushing swing. “Small-ball? Shmall-ball! Someone’s gotta drive those men around the bags!” Although my RBI projection was a touch high, I was almost dead-on with a projection of .280/35/123. In ‘05, the hard-hitting Konerko clubbed .283/40/100, and my stolen base prediction of one was off by, um, one. Konerko can get around the bases easily enough, he just doesn’t steal ‘em.

Travis Hafner (Cle)
Last Season I Said: “Another DH who slips into rosters under the guise of a first baseman, Hafner was available to virtually any owner through the waiver wire at the start of the ‘04 season. … Hafner recorded a simply outstanding ‘04 campaign, to the tune of .311/28/109. With a little more work, league observers believe Hafner capable of posting a 40/125 year. Let’s be slightly more conservative and look for an improved .310/35/115 with a trio of swiped bags.”

In Reality: Hafner was a fantasy stud deluxe in ‘05, proving his worth in virtually every offensive category except stolen bases. I projected a solid .310/35/115 season for the Indians’ DH, and he rewarded his owners with almost identical numbers: .305/33/108, with an insane SLG % of .595. Do I lie?

Comeback Player of the Year

Richie Sexson (Sea)
Last Season I Said: “A shoulder injury limited the usually quite durable Sexson to 18 games in ‘04. Although the guy has a penchant for striking out, (308 Ks out of 1,266 AB the past three seasons) he’s been working on his plate discipline, offers great value, and may well be underpriced due to last year’s injury (which shouldn’t hamper him this year) and off-season move to Seattle’s Safeco Field. Let’s project a season of .275/38/110 for Seattle’s comeback kid.”

In Reality: A series of nicks and knocks had Sexson hobbled for most of the ‘04 season, but he responded with precisely the type of season his owners had hoped for. My “Comeback Player of the Year” notched a very respectable .263/39/121, all the more notable because Sexson was playing in a tough home park, Seattle’s Safeco Field.

Breakout Players

Brad Wilkerson (Was)
Last Season I Said: “Here’s an athlete who hit 32 home runs primarily out of the leadoff slot. If he played for a more prominent franchise, he would be anointed as one of the game’s brightest young players. Part of a Washington Nationals team that possesses more talent then many realize, Brad Wilkerson is primed to go BOOM! Offering even greater value due to his plate discipline (an eye-opening 106 walks), speed (39 doubles, 2 triples and 13 SB) and versatility (he’ll qualify as an outfielder, too) … there’s a lot to like about this kid and he’s more than capable of racking up a line of .275/27/75 with 15 SB.”

In Reality: As a National, Wilkerson wasn’t playing in a ball park … he was playing in a National Park! Without breaking down its dimensions, rest assured that Washington’s RFK Stadium is rather “spacious,” to say the least, and many would-be round-trippers fell in for doubles and triples. From a fantasy perspective Wilkerson turned out to be a mixed bag, hitting .248/11/57 with 42 doubles and seven triples. Those multi-base hits underscore Wilkerson’s Roto value, and while he doesn’t make this season’s top 10, you can feel comfortable drafting the newly minted Texas Ranger. Sent to Texas and swapped for a surly Alfonso Soriano (Big Al ain’t happy about his huge new digs, that’s for sure), Wilkerson stands to (yes, again I’m saying it but I really mean it this time!) post career numbers and could turn into a very potent fantasy force. Amid a murderous lineup and in a hitter’s park, look for Wilkerson to be a quick wire grab (savvy owners will already pluck Wilkerson off the board in the later rounds) should he get off to a hot start. Expect .279/35/80, and he could even be a bit better than that.

Justin Morneau (Min)
Last Season I Said: “Taking over at first when Doug Mientkiewicz was sent to Boston last July, Morneau is the best power-hitting prospect Minny’s developed in decades. Capable of hitting while under pressure, team officials think ‘Mo’ possesses 40 Homer po’. Look for the young Twin to build upon a very good ?04 (.271/19/58) and be close .279/37/110 with a duo of swiped bags for good measure.”

In Reality: Okay, fine, so Morneau’s ‘05 season didn’t shake-out as either of us had planned. Instead of .279/37/110, the Twin killed me with a season of .239/22/79. Again, he’s another 1B who doesn’t warrant top 10 attention, but in fairness the dude did suffer through the injury bug. With something to prove and with youth on his side, look for Morneau to enjoy continued support from Minny’s coaching staff. A season of .255/27/83 is not inconceivable.

Adam LaRoche (Atl)
Last Season I Said: “Given his upside and exemplary performance over last year’s final 26 regular season games when he hit at a .347 clip with eight doubles and five round-trippers, I couldn’t leave LaRoche off the list of up-and-comers. … Keep an eye on his spring and early season work. Should LaRoche pick up where he left off last season, it’ll be a sprint to the internet to see which of your leaguemates snatches him off the wire first. Look for numbers akin to .280/20/65.”

In Reality: Well dagnabbit if I wasn’t on time with this one! Although I took flak from several readers because of his inclusion, LaRoche did me righteous with ‘05 stats’ of .259/20/78. While his production went into a noticeable second-half slide, a more seasoned and mature LaRoche should be a viable back-up fantasy first baseman or flex player. Pencil the kid in for a year of .270/25/88, and that could be on the conservative side.

In Decline

Jeff Bagwell (Hou)
Last Season I Said: “Friends, the staggering financial performance of the dot.coms, summer, and the multimillion-dollar run that really boring/really smart guy, Ken something-or-other, recently made on ‘Jeopardy.’ What am I getting at here? That all good things must come to an end. And, so too must the wonderful career of Jeff Bagwell. Boasting an utterly unique trademark stance that made ‘Bags’ look sort of intimidating, sort of like he was preparing to pass a little gas, Bagwell provided himself with a firm platform that allowed him to both drive the ball to all fields with authority and see the pitch for a fraction of a second longer. Nevertheless, at age 36 Bagwell is long in the tooth and must alter his approach due to significant shoulder woes (arthritis). That is a recipe for offensive mediocrity at best. Look for ‘Bags’ to post … very average digits; .273/28/95 with five stolen bases.”

In Reality: Again, do I lie? Nope. Bagwell’s 2005 was a train wreck. It was, unfortunately, a season thoroughly and completely abbreviated by a shoulder that’s currently being held together by a couple of tendons, a ligament of two, and I believe some dental floss. In his 100 total ABs, Bags posted a tiny, and for him, shameful, line of .250/3/19. Extrapolated over the span of an entire season, the veteran player would’ve hung a line in the neighborhood of .250/18/90. This projection clearly illustrates that the Astro first sacker would have recorded a career-worst year. And yet, like so many athletes who are past their primes, Bagwell just can’t let go of the game he loves. He’s simply not prepared to hang up the spikes and end a career that began 15 long years ago. Keep an eye on this situation, for it could become quite intriguing. Several doctors have examined the hitter whose career marks of .297/449/1,529 fall, at this point anyway, just short of Hall of Fame quality. These physicians have all come to the same conclusion: Bags still has significant damage, damage that will not heal this season and will impact his game. To the dismay of the Houston brass, the popular first baseman remains adamant that he will attend spring training. Stay tuned.

That’s it for the review of last year’s forecast; tomorrow, we’ll take a look at what we can expect from this year’s 1B class!

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