Sleeper of the Week

Not long ago, John Thomson was a pitcher you wanted to keep far, far away from your fantasy rotation. After all, the right-handed starter spent the bulk of his first five seasons in Colorado, posting an ERA of 5.01 as a Rockie (with a high of 8.04 in a dismal 1999 campaign) and never winning more than eight games in a season. Even after leaving Denver, Thomson seemed to be a mediocre pitcher at best, compiling a sub-par 4.85 ERA with Texas in 2003. Things didn’t get much better last year in Atlanta, when his ERA at the All-Star break was 4.82, his WHIP 1.46. But something happened last summer, and suddenly Thomson’s stock soared to undreamed-of heights.

From the break through the end of the season, Thomson pitched like an ace, going 8-1 with a WHIP of 1.16 and an ERA of 2.45, more than two runs below his career average. Needless to say, fantasy owners were quick to take notice, and Thomson was among the hottest pickups down the stretch, and proved to be a difference-maker in many leagues.

This year, Thomson has become quite a popular sleeper, but how good is he really? Did he truly turn the corner in Atlanta, as so many other pitchers have done in the past? Or were his staggering numbers merely a fluke? After all, neither his K/BB nor his K/9 ratios showed any improvement after the break, actually dropping slightly from their first-half levels.

With no way of knowing for sure, exercise caution when drafting John Thomson. Don’t pin your rotation’s hopes on a repeat performance, but if you can acquire him on the cheap, don’t hesitate to do so. His upside makes him well worth a roster spot.