Sleeper Watch

Six-game winner Jon Garland’s dominance has certainly been remarkable, but he isn’t the only pitcher making waves in Chicago’s South Side. With only one win, Jose Contreras may be overshadowed by teammates Garland and Mark Buehrle (5-1) in the media spotlight, but his performance this year is no less noteworthy.

Like Garland, Contreras has lopped his 2004 ERA in half, improving from an unimpressive 5.30 to 2.60, currently the fifth-best mark in the AL. In six 2005 starts, the former Cuban defector has given up four earned runs once (against Cleveland on April 13), two earned runs once (against Minnesota five days later) and just one run four times. Sadly, his support has been lackluster. In games started by Contreras, the White Sox have averaged just 3.7 runs scored per contest, compared with 7.8 in Garland’s starts. Look no further for an explanation of Contreras’ meager 1-0 record…

So far this season, Contreras has put up a solid 0.78 K/IP mark, but he’s also walking nearly one batter every two innings (0.46 BB/IP). His WHIP has dropped sharply from 1.54 in 2004 to 1.13 this year, thanks in part to solid defense by Chicago’s fielders. Opposing batters are hitting just .189 against Contreras, the third-lowest mark in the majors behind only Pedro Martinez (.145) and Roger Clemens (.182).

Unfortunately, it’s hard to find an explanation in Contreras’ numbers for this improvement, and as is often the case in sudden BAA drops, luck may be playing a considerable role in his resurgence. Additionally, as fantasy veterans know only too well, Contreras has a nasty habit of teasing us with a string of excellent outings, only to come falling back to earth shortly thereafter. In spite of his success, he remains a risky fantasy proposition, but if you’re at the bottom of the standings in the pitching categories and he’s still available in your mixed league, he might be worth a shot.