Sleeper Watch

Last year, Jay Payton was underrated in fantasy drafts, and it appears that things won’t be any different this time around. In spite of a solid 2003 campaign (.302 average, 28 hr, 89 rbi, 93 r, .865 ops), the Rockies’ left fielder remains very low on most owners’ draft lists, perhaps due to the memory of his poor production for the Mets in 2001 and 2002.

But this isn’t 2001, and Payton no longer calls Shea Stadium home. His numbers have soared in the thin air of Colorado, and last season his value in 5×5 leagues was equal to that of fantasy favorite Lance Berkman. Some may scoff that Payton is no more than an average talent, but in fantasy baseball, it’s ultimately stats that matter, not skill. A hit at Coors counts the same as a hit in Dodger Stadium.

In fact, Payton’s pronounced home-road splits (.322 average, .917 ops at home; .281 and .814 on the road) only serve to increase his fantasy value. Owners can exploit these splits by using him in a platoon role, starting him only in home games where his numbers place him among the top ten fantasy outfielders. A platoon with a speedster such as Alex Sanchez has proven to be particularly effective.

One detail worth noting is that there have been occasional trade rumors surrounding Payton. So far, these are vague at best, but it’s a situation worth watching. If Payton winds up being dealt away from Colorado, all bets are off.