Rough Start

The 2003 season might be only a few days old, but some of the game’s top pitchers have already received a rough welcome into the new campaign. So what’s a fantasy owner to do? Panic? Ignore the bad outing? Try to get rid of the ace while he at least still has name value? Or stay patient, take another hit, and maybe another one, before dumping him later… Particularly at this time of the year, such decisions are extremely hard to make, and should be made with caution. On the other hand, it might also be the time when you can make an occasional steal if another owner overreacts and drops such a pitcher. Here is an early list of several players off to a shaky start and a short look at what to expect as the season progresses and what to do now:

Tom Glavine, NYM (12.27 ERA): Glavine’s first start in the majors without a Braves uniform didn’t exactly go as planned, but it was simply the continuation of a trend from spring training. Glavine doesn’t look as comfortable with the strike zone right now as we’re used to, and had been inconsistent in almost all his spring starts for the Mets. Benching him for now might be the best way to go, at least until he regains his usual presence on the mound. It may take a few starts until he is back, but you can still count on him to win 13-15 games with an ERA slightly below 3.50. Considering his age and new surroundings, though, there might be a good chance to trade for him now if his owner is getting nervous…

Freddy Garcia, Sea (9.64 ERA): Garcia was almost single-handedly chased by Erubiel Durazo in his first appearance, and this continues his habit of slow starts into the season. Freddy usually needs two or three starts to get into a groove, and we expect this year to be no different. History tells us to sit him for another game or two, but after that you should be able to get better numbers out of him. Just don’t expect a duplication of his 2001 stats: we think he will win 15 games or so, and his ERA should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.90. As with Glavine, you also might have a slight chance of acquiring him inexpensively, especially if he blows another start.

Tim Wakefield, Bos (9.00 ERA): Wakefield, who was solid the last couple of seasons as a part-time starter, had to head for the showers after five innings against the lowly Devil Rays. Don’t be afraid of starting him the next time, though, as his second outing should be significantly better. Despite the question of how many starts he will wind up making, Wakefield should have another solid season; expect him to pitch 160+ innings again and post an ERA of 3.60 or lower. His win totals, of course, depend entirely on whether the Red Sox leave him in the rotation this time around.

Josh Beckett, Fla (6.75 ERA): Beckett was inconsistent last season, too, and it won’t be any different this year, blisters or no blisters. His game against Philadelphia was disappointing, but a superb outing can very well follow. He is still young, so such inconsistency is only to be expected. There is absolutely no reason to panic; he will earn you about 15 wins with an ERA of 3.80 or lower. Don’t expect to be able to pry him away from anyone for a your fourth-string second baseman, however. Nobody gives up on a young, high upside pitcher quite this early, especially in a keeper league.

Matt Morris, StL (6.43 ERA): Morris was rock solid last season, and poor starts were few and far between, so let’s just hope this was an aberration and Matt gets back on track again. We urge you to start him again next game; the odds are very much in favor of the Cardinals’ ace having an outing as solid as we have come to expect. We can’t see any reason why he should not be able to duplicate his 17 wins and 3.42 ERA from last year.

Greg Maddux, Atl (5.14 ERA): Maddux and the Braves were blown out by Montreal by a score of 10-2. While Braves fans may be starting to feel uneasy after seeing the leader of a revamped staff hit hard in his first start, putting that much more pressure on the new faces, fantasy owners shouldn’t be terribly concerned. Maddux has had slow starts to the last two seasons, so we don’t think his troubles will continue for long. We would even start him again the next time he takes the mound, despite the danger of another bad outing. Overall, Maddux should again lead all Braves starting pitchers with 16-18 wins and an ERA slightly above 3.00. Maddux will hardly fall into your hands for a low price this early, but if his struggles continue, it might be worth floating an offer or two.

Curt Schilling, Ari (4.91 ERA): Curt pitched a solid game until the eighth inning, which almost led to Arizona’s second consecutive loss after Randy Johnson failed to win the season opener. No need to panic here, though: Schilling still shows great mound presence and will be able to get into the 20 win region again, with an ERA slightly above 3.30. It’s probably not worth trying to snare him in a trade yet, although that might change if he follows this game with another subpar outing.

Roy Halladay, Tor (4.76 ERA): A 4.76 ERA would not be worrisome for most pitchers in the league, but for top tier arms like Halladay, it’s enough to qualify as a disappointment. What makes it a bit more concerning is that he gave up eight runs in total, including a grand slam to Alfonso Soriano, but only three of them were earned. Halladay didn’t show the dominance he had last year, and it makes us wonder whether he can duplicate his 2002 numbers. While we obviously don’t recommend dumping him now, it might be a good idea to monitor his performance closely and perhaps bench him for a game or two. Put him back once he has regained his confidence again. That said, we don’t expect him to win more than 16 games while posting an ERA around 3.70 - still great stats, but a bit of a drop-off from last year.

The bottom line, for all these aces, is this: watch their next starts carefully, but don’t panic. You drafted these players for a reason; one or two weak performances shouldn’t change your thinking.

 
Dan Spazierer owns about half the pitchers mentioned in this column. While he wishes he had forgotten to set his lineups this week, he remains optimistic about the future.