Rookie of the Year Talk Update

By JP Steed

Okay, just over 40 games have been played – that’s about a quarter of the season – so it’s time to update our discussion of 2003 Rookie-of-the-Year candidates. This time around we can start dividing our candidates into their respective leagues, too. I’ve listed the top three ROY candidates in each league in the “Count Me In” category, as well as one player per league in the “Don’t Count Me Out” category. Finally, we have a new category – the “I’m Out” group of players, all of whom began the season as potential ROY candidates, but have since faded out of contention and likely won’t return.

Count Me In

Rocco Baldelli (OF, Tampa Bay) – Believe it or not, this guy’s showing no signs of slowing down. He still strikes out a lot, but he has 61 hits in his first 42 games, so maybe the k’s doesn’t matter so much. What’s more, he’s starting to steal a few bases. Baldelli is a future superstar, and if you’re in a keeper league, get him now, while some managers are still discounting him as “unproven.”

Mike MacDougal (RP, Kansas City) – MacDougal is one of the few AL pitchers who warrant consideration. Kansas City can’t possibly keep up this pace, but so far MacDougal hasn’t blown a save yet (though he does have two losses) and he hasn’t yet given up a homer. His era is decent and batters are hitting only .214 against him, and he has eleven saves in his first 20 appearances. Whatever wins the Royals get will likely be saved by MacDougal, and the publicity that KC is receiving right now can’t hurt his chances for official recognition, so keep your eye on this guy.

Hideki Matsui (OF, New York) – Matsui is still knocking in the runs (29 rbi in his first 43 games played), but his average, homers, and once-impressive k/bb ratio have fallen off a bit. That’s okay, though, because if he finishes with 115 rbi, it won’t matter if he’s hitting only .240 with 10 dongs – he’ll still be a contender for the ROY.

If the Award Goes Out Today, I Give It To: Rocco Baldelli

Kurt Ainsworth (SP, San Francisco) – Ainsworth has good stuff and great offensive support, but that whip (1.49 through his first nine starts) could come back to haunt him – and even more haunting could be the competition he’ll receive from teammate Jesse Foppert. Ainsworth should finish with 12-15 wins, and is definitely someone to consider holding on to in keeper leagues.

Zach Day (SP, Montreal) – It’s all about pitchers in the NL ROY race, it seems. Day didn’t make it into the earlier Rookie of the Year Talk because he was expected to slip out of the starting rotation when El Duque returned from the DL. But now El Duque is out for several months (shoulder surgery), so Day’s spot is assured – and he’s making good use of it. Through nine starts, he’s 4-1 with a 2.63 era, a 1.23 whip, and batters are hitting a paltry .188 against him. If Day is, by some miracle, still available in your league, go get him right now.

Jesse Foppert (SP, San Francisco) – This guy has better stuff than Ainsworth, and he’s starting to show it. He recently held a potent, hot-hitting Atlanta lineup to two earned runs for his second win, and though the rest of his numbers don’t look so hot right now, he’ll start catching on soon. Unlike Ainsworth, Foppert will be an ace someday in the near future. And with that Giant offense behind him he too could win 12-15 games this year. If you have to choose between Ainsworth and Foppert in your keeper league, go with Foppert.

If the Award Goes Out Today, I Give It To: Zach Day

Don’t Count Me Out

Carl Crawford (OF, Tampa Bay) – It’ll take a prolonged hot streak for Crawford and a prolonged slump by teammate Rocco Baldelli for Crawford to step out of his teammate’s shadow in the ROY watch, but it could happen. Baldelli hasn’t slumped yet, but Crawford has been heating up (7 for his last 20), and he’s on pace for 80 runs and about 40 stolen bases – not bad for a rookie leadoff hitter.

Hee Seop Choi (1B, Chicago) – Choi has also faded, and he’s losing more plate-time to Eric Karros, who has hit fairly well when he’s had the chance. Choi is the 1B of the future for the Cubbies, and he’ll be good (to the tune of .280/30/100 down the road), but his bid for the ROY will be strong only if he hooks into a few hot streaks.

I’m Out

The following three Future Fantasy Studs – Victor Martinez (C, Cleveland), Brandon Phillips (2B, Cleveland), and Mark Teixeira (3B, Texas) – will be top-tier players by as early as 2005, but none of them is doing anything to warrant ROY talk this year, so go ahead and count them out. Keeper-leaguers should already have a bead on these guys, but keep them on your bench for now. And count these guys out of ROY contention, too: Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady, Ricardo Rodriguez, and Francisco Rodriguez.

J.P. Steed is a Cubs fan in the NL and a Red Sox fan in the AL, which is to say that he has a very high threshhold for pain. (When his wife claims that he’ll never know the agony of giving birth, he counters with, “True, but I did watch Bill Buckner in 1986.”) He is the father of three and the husband of one, as well as the English professor of many in Salem, Oregon.

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