Rookie of the Year Talk

It’s now nearly May, which means that the time to start talking about possible Rookie of the-Year candidates is long overdue. After all, most of our rookie hitters have logged twenty games or more, and most of our rookie pitchers have chalked up 25-35 innings (unless they’re relievers, in which case they’ve made 8-12 appearances). That’s about an eighth of the season, we’ll say - way more than enough to go on! So, without any further delay…

 
Count Me In

Our first gang of Rookie of the Year hopefuls is made up of early performers - guys who are already showing their stuff and demanding some attention. At this point I’m not distinguishing between leagues; I’m just choosing the best performances so far. Here are, by my assessment and in alphabetical order, the Six Strongest Candidates So Far:

Kurt Ainsworth (SP, San Francisco) - Kurt-with-a-’K’ has decent stuff and he pitches in PacBell, backed by Barry. He made the rotation as the fifth starter out of spring training, and he’s already looking like the number-three guy. Opponents are hitting .264 against him, and he has a 4.91 ERA, but he’s 3-1 and should win 15 games for the Giants. Jason Jennings won the ROY last year with 16 wins for the Rockies.

Rocco Baldelli (OF, Tampa Bay) - The new ‘fastest man in baseball’ is raising eyebrows. Recently, a scout clocked Baldelli at 4.3 seconds from home to first. That’s about average, from the right side of the plate - but the kicker is that Baldelli struck out, stopped, then beat out the throw by Jason Varitek, after a passed ball. Did you catch that? Baldelli’s time to first was average even when he thought he struck out, and didn’t start running right away. Add to the wheels the fact that he put up a 13-game hitting streak to start the season, and he continues at a .362 clip, slugging .476, and you’ve got yourself a contender. His major weaknesses, though, are youth (he’s only 21) and strikeouts (27 in 105 at bats). What will he do when he develops some discipline at the plate?

Hee Seop Choi (1B, Chicago Cubs) - Eric Karros can expect a long-term role as pinch-hitter if Choi keeps it up. Right now he’s .255/5/14, but the stats that really stand out are his .446 OBP, his .582 SLG, and his 17/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Cubbies picked up Karros because they weren’t sure Choi was ready for the fulltime gig, but it’s looking more and more like they should’ve paid more attention to the other corner of the infield. If Chicago makes it to the postseason, Choi might be my Choi-ce in the National League.

Mike MacDougal (RP, Kansas City) - MacDougal is the only reliever, right now, who warrants any ROY attention - but if he keeps it up, he might just warrant it all. The guy throws heat, and in Kansas City’s hot start he’s earned a win and ten saves, with 9 K’s in 12.1 innings and three earned runs. But what I like the most? The paltry .154 that hitters are batting against him. He has some control problems at times, and he pitches for KC (which means he’ll probably be lucky to get 20-25 saves, if he can maintain some control and stay healthy), but that’s enough to contend for the ROY in my book.

Hideki Matsui (OF, New York Yankees) - Every time I see this guy’s name, Blue Oyster Cult starts ringing in my ears (”Go go Godzilla!”). Like Choi, Matsui has a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio (16/10), and he’s driven in a healthy 21 runs in that Yankee lineup. Matsui is a good, quality hitter - and he should hit .280-.300, with 20 homers and 90-100 rbi. Whether you vote for him as a ROY or not, though, might have something to do with how you felt about Ichiro’s award. Not to take anything away from Ichiro, who definitely deserved the MVP, but, hey, Warren Moon didn’t win ROY honors in the NFL after playing in Canada.

Ricardo Rodriguez (SP, Cleveland) - Last but not least: a guy who has probably been flying under most people’s radar until now. Rodriguez is one of several young future-stars in Ohio. He’s got good stuff - he’s probably a top-of-the-rotation kind of guy, in a few years - he’s already flashing a bit of what he can do, and he’s doing it without the same monster lineup as guys like Ainsworth. So far, he’s 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 20 Ks in 38 innings, and hitters are grasping for a .214 average against him. Wins will be hard to come by in Cleveland, and we’ll see what happens when teams start to get second and third looks at his stuff, but right now Rodriguez is the strongest ROY contender of all AL starters.

 
Don’t Count Me Out

Now, of course, there are a few games left to be played this year, and a lot can happen over the next 7/8 of the season. So, below is a list of players to watch - guys who could still make a run for the ROY if things go their way. And maybe in another month or so we’ll revisit the ROY-talk. Heck, we could make it a regular column - next update: when the second eighth of the season is drawing to a close in May. For now, though, keep an eye on these guys:

Jesse Foppert (SP, San Francisco) - Better stuff than Ainsworth - in fact, he’s the best pitching prospect in the league. After being called up to replace Ryan Jensen (DL), he had a somewhat rough start, but Foppert has the talent to turn things around.

Victor Martinez (C, Cleveland) - Another youngster in Cleveland, his chances for the ROY depend on how soon he gets the call. He’s won two batting titles in the minors and could be the heir to Mike Piazza’s throne. But he might not show up till it’s too late this year.

Xavier Nady (OF, San Diego) - A good power prospect, Nady is showing promise so fa, and he has a regular job for the Pads, which helps. If he can turn it on, he’s got the goods to contend.

Lyle Overbay (1B, Arizona) - Groomed as the second-coming of Mark Grace, Overbay is hitting .301 right now. He’s getting less attention than NL peers such as Choi and Ainsworth, but had I gone with seven on the above list, Overbay would have been up there.

Brandon Phillips (2B, Cleveland) - Yet another Indian to watch, Phillips has been heralded as a future tier-peer of the Big Four shortstops (he’s only at 2B right now because of a guy named Vizquel). Phillips has struggled so far (.225), but he had a good spring, went 3/3 the other day, and his ceiling is high, high, high.

Francisco Rodriguez (RP, Anaheim) - You saw the guy last October, didn’t you? The biggest thing keeping him from real ROY consideration is his role as a middle-reliever. If he only had Troy Percivals job…

Mark Teixeira (3B/1B/DH, Texas) - The Rangers aren’t sure where to put this guy, but they want to put him somewhere. He’s the #1 hitting prospect in the league - off to a slow start, but that’s probably due to a lack of serious, steady playing time. I think Texas ought to plug him in at DH and stand back. Way back. By the way, his name is pronounced “Tesh-AIR-uh.”

 
J.P. Steed is a Cubs fan in the NL and a Red Sox fan in the AL, which is to say that he has a very high threshhold for pain. (When his wife claims that he’ll never know the agony of giving birth, he counters with, “True, but I did watch Bill Buckner in 1986.”) He is the father of three and the husband of one, as well as the English professor of many in Salem, Oregon.