Sleeper Watch

Now that he’ll no longer be earning saves for Cincinnati, Danny Graves is being left off of many fantasy owners’ 2003 cheat sheets. You’d think they’d have learned their lesson by watching Derek Lowe’s success last season…

No, you shouldn’t expect Lowe-esque numbers from Graves (In fact, you probably shouldn’t expect Lowe himself to repeat his ‘02 numbers this season, either). The two pitchers are, however, similar in more ways than their transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Both rely on sinking fastballs supported by above average changeups. Neither will provide you with a stellar k/ip ratio, a drawback in leagues with innings pitched limits, but both have excellent control, resulting in better than two-to-one k/bb marks. Both also seem to thrive on pressure.

And as was the case last year with Lowe, there are some who aren’t certain Graves can handle the workload of a full-time starter. Don’t worry too much about Graves’ durability, however. He looked fine in four starts last season, and is in good enough shape that he should make this transition easily.

Once the rest of your league starts grasping at straws in the hope of finding a viable starting pitcher, take a chance on Graves, who should reward you with very solid all-around numbers. As an added bonus, if Scott Williamson falters as a closer, Graves could very well return to that role…