Sleeper Watch

One of the toughest, most crucial decisions facing drafters this year is this: once the true aces have disappeared from your draft board, do you dare pick Kevin Brown, or pass and look for a safer option?

A healthy Kevin Brown would presumably give you one of the most dominating pitchers in the league, capable of racking up 18-20 wins, 200+ strikeouts and an era below 3.00. Yet if Brown finds himself battling injuries yet again, you’ll wind up with a fairly high draft pick (or a substantial chunk of your auction budget) sitting on your disabled list. Last season, Brown managed less than seventy innings between bouts of elbow trouble, and then only put up mediocre numbers, dealing a serious blow to his fantasy owners.

Yet this season, things look different. Brown, now 38 years old, is hitting up to 95 mph on the radar gun, and his mechanics look as smooth as ever. Does this mean you should take a chance on him?

The answer, from what we’ve seen this spring, seems to be yes – just don’t jump on the bandwagon too early. If there are still Randy Wolfs and Jason Schmidts available, put your thoughts of Brown aside for the time being and go the safer route. On the other hand, if pitching is beginning to look thin and you’re left with players such as Jake Peavy, Kip Wells or possibly even Josh Beckett, grabbing Brown starts to look like a very good idea.

The Dodgers’ ace could be a true fantasy difference-maker this year, both in a positive and a negative sense, and you certainly don’t want to draft him before the potential rewards begin to outweigh the risks. Once that point is reached, however, grab Kevin Brown and don’t look back (whether you try to trade him early in the season or not is another matter). By using caution and patience, you could wind up looking very smart in October.