Mixed Keeper Analysis

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The keeper draft was very interesting, and well worth taking a closer look at. The drafters were very savvy, and used a variety of styles and tactics. The differences between this draft and non-keeper drafts is particularly noteworthy. So without further ado, let’s get down to business…

 
ROUND 1

1. Bobby Abreu* – OF, Phi
Abreu should not be considered the ‘real’ top pick – monster, who held the top pick, used this draft to simulate a league where Abreu will be the best available player. Nevertheless, Abreu will be taken early in most keeper drafts this year. Five-category studs are rare; look for his power numbers to return to 2001 levels.

2. Alex Rodriguez – SS, Tex
The ‘true’ first pick of this draft, and deservedly so. A-Rod will continue to put up mvp-caliber numbers for years to come. Playing shortstop doesn’t hurt, either…

3. Alfonso Soriano – 2B, NYA
Soriano tailed off a bit at the end of last season, but his overall numbers were still staggering. Youth, speed, power and a shallow position… what more could you want in a player? Oh yeah: a track record.

4. Randy Johnson – SP, Ari
Picking the Big Unit in a keeper league sends a clear message to the other owners: I’m looking to win now. His value as a keeper might be lower than that of other players, but as a foundation for a 2003 fantasy championship, it’s hard to beat Randy Johnson.

5. Vladimir Guerrero – OF, Mon
No complaints with this pick, either. Guerrero put up better 5×5 numbers than any other player last season, and hasn’t turned 27 yet.

6. Albert Pujols – 1B/3B/OF, StL
Pujols’ first two seasons placed him among the fantasy elite, and his eligibility at three positions raises his value even further. Taking him early gives a team quite a bit of flexibility, even if he is predestined for third base.

7. Jason Giambi – 1B, NYA
Giambi or Helton? kashikis gave the nod to Giambi. First base is a deep position, but these two deserve to be taken very early.

8. Nomar Garciaparra – SS, Bos
The big three have turned into the big four, but if you want one of the top shortstops, you still have to grab one early.

9. Barry Zito – SP, Oak
In single-season leagues, Zito’s numbers and reliability make him a stud. In this keeper league, his youth made him the second pitcher chosen.

10. Todd Helton – 1B, Col
Again, no arguments with this pick. When he’s hot, he’s one of the best fantasy players, even away from Coors. Even when his back limited him, Helton was still amazing.

Round summary: Not too many surprises here: the players chosen are all among the best the game has to offer. The main decisions drafters have to make at this stage are: ‘Win now or go with youth?’ as well as ‘Positional scarcity or best available player?’

Intriguing pick of the round: Soriano at #3. Usually, you’d like your top pick to be as reliable as they come, but the jury may still be out on Soriano. Do his amazing skills and high ceiling justify taking a risk in round 1? Yes.

 
ROUND 2

11. Magglio Ordonez – OF, ChA
Ordonez is another blue-chipper who will make a great keeper. Looks like Hbj is going by the best-available-player strategy and will be looking to fill the shallow positions with sleepers later on.

12. Lance Berkman – OF, Hou
Berkman complements Zito nicely: both are already elite players, and both still have room to improve. YankFan has to be pleased with this core to build around.

13. Curt Schilling – SP, Ari
At this point in the draft, it’s hard to pass on Schilling’s staggering numbers. True, he’s no spring chicken, but he hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down yet.

14. Shawn Green – OF, LA
Green’s power numbers are always solid; if he can raise his average and stolen bases again, he’ll be fantastic.

15. Sammy Sosa – OF, ChN
Sosa is a great pick at number 15. At age 34, he’ll be a keeper – and a tremendous asset to his team – for a while yet.

16. Miguel Tejada – SS, Oak
A year or two ago, Tejada before Jeter would have seemed laughable. Now, it makes perfect sense.

17. Barry Bonds – OF, SF
Barry Bonds at pick 17? Even at Bonds’ age, this pick is a steal.

18. Derek Jeter – SS, NYA
It’s now or never if you want one of the elite shortstops…

19. Pedro Martinez – SP, Bos
A history of nagging injuries make Martinez a slightly risky choice, but the rewards more than compensate for the risk. At pick 19, this is a great choice, and an excellent complement to Alex Rodriguez.

20. Mike Mussina – SP, NYA
Mussina slipped a bit last year, but he remains one of the game’s best pitchers. Still, his age makes him a somewhat risky pick with so many solid young arms available.

Round summary: It was interesting to see some of the game’s stars – such as Sosa, Bonds or Martinez – slip to pick 15 and beyond. The lesson? In keeper drafts, there will be some nice surprises for those who are willing to sacrifice youth.

Intriguing pick of the round: Barry Bonds at #17. Together with Randy Johnson, this is about as good a top two that you can get for 2003. Yes, this team’s keeper potential lags well behind that of the other teams, but isn’t that a small price to pay in order to contend right now?

 
ROUND 3

21. Mike Piazza – C, NYM
Opening the third round, Piazza is simply an excellent pick. No other player available at this point will give you as great an edge over the competition as Piazza.

22. Eric Chavez – 3B, Oak
Picking a 3B at this point is tough. Chavez holds more risk than rolen, for example, but also has more upside. If Chavez can reach his full potential, we’ll be looking back at this pick as a huge steal, but that’s a big if.

23. Jim Thome – 1B, Phi
Projections for Thome are all over the board. Will he soar in Philly with several table-setters in front of him? Will he have trouble adjusting to a new league and a new park? We’ll know soon; in the meantime, this is a risky pick.

24. Manny Ramirez – OF, Bos
Another masher following Bonds, and another pick fitting the win now mold.

25. Roy Oswalt – SP, Hou
At number 25, Oswalt looks like a bargain. His upside is comparable to Zito’s, even if the stadium he calls home is cause for slight concern.

26. Brian Giles – OF, Pit
Giles may be underrated by baseball fans, but fantasy owners know his value.

27. Carlos Beltran – OF, KC
Beltran’s five-category potential is too good to pass up at this spot. This is about as long as he’ll last in a keeper draft, and he may go off the board even earlier.

28. Troy Glaus – 3B, Ana
Glaus’ power is tremendous, but his tendency to hit for a low average is infuriating.

29. Chipper Jones – OF, Atl
With so many outfielders already off the board, Jones is one of the last reliable choices at this position.

30. Tim Hudson – SP, Oak
There are still several excellent young starters around, but they shouldn’t last too long now. Going with Hudson here instead of a bat is a good call.

Round summary: There was still a lot of talent available in this round, but this group of players is less of a sure thing to succeed than those picked in the first two rounds. The drafters are still looking to build a solid nucleus; we should see more risk-taking later on.

Intriguing pick of the round: Mike Piazza at #21. With I-Rod’s status still uncertain at the time of this draft, Piazza stood head and shoulders above the pack at catcher. While several other catchers have a good deal of talent, many of those are far from reliable. In many drafts, this selection might have sparked a run at catcher; not so here.

 
ROUND 4

31. Matt Morris – SP, StL
The nice thing about having a bookend pick is that you can change the whole draft landscape with a well-timed gambit. by taking Hudson and Morris back-to-back, Hbj has substantially reduced the pool of young arms, forcing other owners to react.

32. Jeff Kent – 2B, Hou
YankFan went with outfielders earlier, but doesn’t suffer for it as a top 2B falls to him in round four. Kent should have been off the board by now; he’s an absolute steal here.

33. Ichiro – OF, Sea
With Glaus’ average potentially dragging mattusd down, he solved the problem by picking up Ichiro. This is a combination we might be seeing quite a bit of this year.

34. Kerry Wood – SP, ChN
Not having taken a pitcher yet, kashikis makes a logical choice in Wood.

35. Mark Mulder – SP, Oak
tlef also needs a starter, and finds a good one in Mulder.

36. Garret Anderson – OF, Ana
Anderson is another underrated player who puts up terrific numbers, yet he might be a bit of a reach here with several comparable OFs available.

37. Bartolo Colon – SP, ChA
The newest member of the White Sox is a bit riskier than the pitchers chosen before him, in spite of his talent. The impact of Hbj’s bookend picks can be seen right here.

38. Jorge Posada – C, NYA
Posada is a solid pick. Taking Ivan Rodriguez would have been too risky with the possibility that he would be playing in Japan.

39. Roberto Alomar – 2B, NYN
Alomar is a classic high risk/high reward pick. We’ll see a lot of variation in his draft position this year; number 39 might be a bit too early, though.

40. Scott Rolen – 3b, StL
With Pujols, Chavez and Glaus off the board, Rolen becomes a logical and shrewd choice for monster.

Round summary: This round was defined by two things: the Hudson-Morris combination at its start and greater attention to positional scarcity. Several positions are already looking rather thin, but many teams have sleepers in mind.

Intriguing pick of the round: Ichiro at #33. This is a great example of drafting not only with your cheat sheets and rankings in mind, but with an eye on your team as a whole.

 
ROUND 5

41. Ray Durham – 2B, SF
Another good pick at a fairly shallow position, Durham’s combination of speed and pop make him a better choice than a speed-only 2B such as Luis Castillo.

42. Paul Konerko – 1B, ChA
It’s been a while since a 1B was chosen; on2stix makes a good call here by landing a great keeper.

43. Freddy Garcia – SP, Sea
Garcia is a great choice by Decack. Look for a return to his 2001 level of play.

44. Mike Sweeney – 1B, KC
The Guru already has enough power in his lineup that he can afford to go with Sweeney’s all-around solid numbers instead of looking for a pure masher.

45. Roy Halladay – SP, Tor
Another good pick in a very solid round, kentx lands a great player who doesn’t get nearly the attention he deserves.

46. Pat Burrell – OF, Phi
tlef completes a very solid outfield with Burrell, who took a huge step forward last season. If he can keep playing at this level, he makes a great keeper.

47. Eric Hinske – 3B, Tor
Hinske is a risky pick; his choice here reflects the difficulty of finding young 3Bs with upside.

48. Torii Hunter – OF, Min
Hunter came into his own last year; a 100-rbi season would not come as a surprise.

49. Jeff Bagwell – 1B, Hou
Bagwell slipped a bit last season, and will slip in many drafts. If he rebounds, he’ll be a steal.

50. Jose Vidro – 2B, Mon
Vidro has quietly put together some very solid seasons; better to grab him now than to risk losing him.

Round summary: It seems as if several owners went with players they had been targeting all along. Had this been a single-season draft, teams might have started considering drafting closers; in a keeper draft, closers can wait.

Intriguing pick of the round: Roy Halladay at #45. Everybody always waits to take Halladay, but the time was right when kentx’s pick came up. Halladay would not have lasted much longer.