Questions to Keep in Mind During Your Draft (Part II)

After making some predictions about a couple of risky Red Sox and the Mets’ new look lineup last time, let’s examine a few more questions that will help determine the fate of many fantasy teams in 2002.

4) Players such as J.D. Drew, Adrian Beltre and Andruw Jones have teased fantasy owners with their potential for quite some time. Who will have a breakout year, and who will continue to tantalize?

All fantasy players are intrigued by potential, especially those in keeper leagues. When a can’t-miss prospect comes along, we often throw caution to the wind in the hope of landing the next five-tool star. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes we’re left picking the same players year after year, wondering when they’ll finally break out and reward our patience.

Fearless prediction: Let’s see… During spring training, Drew has already been troubled by a sprained ankle and a sore knee. Neither is serious, but you have to wonder whether Drew is under some sort of curse. Somehow, I don’t see more than 130 games from Drew this year. When he does play, however, he’ll put up monster stats. Beltre, on the other hand, has no health problems this year, and has added some muscle. A lot of muscle, actually. I smell a breakout season. He certainly won’t hit just .265 again. And Jones will still be Jones: very good, but just a tiny bit below everyone’s hopes. Sheffield’s presence in Atlanta should help.

Some more of those players who have yet to fulfill their potential are:

Jose Ortiz: Ok, so he didn’t win the AL rookie of the year award last year, as many had predicted he would. He’ll enter the upper tier of fantasy 2b’s this year, though, and never look back.

Erubiel Durazo: In case you missed it, Durazo will miss at least six weeks after wrist surgery. Since an injury of this type often has lingering effects, it looks like his amazing spring training will only serve to tantalize us further.

Vernon Wells: If his hot spring is any indication, Wells will take a huge step forward this year. He’ll get the playing time to show off his talent, too; the Jays plan on using him as their everyday dh.

Daryle Ward: Ward should be able to hold off Jason Lane and post good numbers. Don’t expect another Berkman, but grab him if the other owners in your league forget about him.

Jacque Jones: Jones will bat leadoff for the Twins, which will certainly help, but don’t expect too much from him this year. Until he improves his k/bb ratio, he won’t make any waves.

Adam Piatt: If he can stay healthy for a change, he could still be a stud. It won’t be this year, though, although a late call-up is probable.

Corey Patterson: Patterson will play almost every day, but he’ll experience plenty of growing pains this year.

5.) How much of the hoopla surrounding this year’s crop of young 3b’s is just hype, and how much is reality?

Seldom has the rookie class at any fielding position generated as much buzz as this year’s 3b’s. Burroughs, Blalock, Ensberg, Hinske… it’s enough to set off fireworks in any fantasy gm’s mind.

Fearless prediction: Burroughs will struggle early and post below average power numbers, Blalock will go through hot and cold streaks, and will contend for the rookie of the year award, Ensberg will be solid, and Hinske will quietly put up respectable stats.

Perhaps the largest impact of the abundance of 3b’s is that many other rookies will be all but forgotten. I’ve seen drafts this year where the bidding for the top young 3b’s was fast and furious, but guys like Nick Johnson and Carlos Pena were mere afterthoughts. A savvy drafter who plays his cards right could wind up with some great bargains at other positions.

Also, if these guys pan out, 3b will be a whole lot deeper than it has been recently. Definitely something to keep in mind for next year…

6) What about the young arms? Will Beckett, Prior & Company fulfill their owners’ dreams?

Picking up a young pitcher is always risky. No matter how many predictions you look at, nobody truly knows how well a rookie will perform. Growing pains are the norm, but everyone hopes to be the one to draft the next Kerry Wood.

Fearless prediction: Don’t expect the young guns to carry your team to a title in 2002. Beckett and Cruz should post the best numbers this year, with Prior spending significant time in the minors and Hernandez adjusting to whatever they’ll call that park in Houston. The future, however, looks very bright indeed. Any of these guys would be great for keeper leagues. Jon Rauch looks like a decent sleeper, too. He’s coming back from surgery and has had an awful spring, but this kid has some great stuff. Don’t bet the farm on any youngster’s development, though – the next Ryan Anderson or Rick Ankiel is always just around the corner…