Questions to Keep in Mind During Your Draft (Part I)

Every year, there are some things of which we can be fairly certain when looking ahead to the new baseball season. Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds will hit a whole lot of dingers. Neither Rondell White nor Larry Walker will break Cal Ripken’s record for consecutive games played. The Rockies’ team era will be mile-high. And that shortstop in Texas will be pretty good.

But every season, there are a number of questions whose answers are still shrouded in mystery. While nobody can predict the future, keeping these uncertainties in mind and carefully weighing the risks versus the rewards of the players involved is a key to succeeding in any draft. Here are some questions to keep an eye on, and some educated guesses as to their outcome:

1) Will Pedro Martinez be healthy for a whole season?

What’s more severe: Pedro’s arm trouble or the headaches he causes fantasy owners? When healthy, Martinez is the best player in fantasy baseball, bar none, practically guaranteeing his owners a finish near the top of their leagues. It’s just as likely, however, that he’ll spend significant time on the shelf, which is the last thing you’re looking for from an early pick or from a player purchased with a large chunk of your auction budget.

Fearless prediction: The Red Sox are planning on being much more careful with Pedro than in the past, and everything we’ve seen from Martinez this spring has been encouraging. Expect a good year from Martinez. Nevertheless, you may want to let someone else take this particular risk; your top players should come with as few question marks as possible.

2) Will Nomar Garciaparra be back at 100%?

No, this isn’t a run-down of the Red Sox roster… but whether by coincidence or curse, the two biggest uncertainties this year play their ball in Beantown. Garciaparra is coming off a wrist injury, not a good thing for a hitter who relies so heavily on bat speed. As with Martinez, all signs from Garciaparra have been reassuring, but Nomar admits that his wrist still doesn’t feel the same as it did prior to the injury.

Fearless prediction: As with Martinez, we expect good things from Garciaparra this year, and picking him up may be a more solid investment than paying an exorbitant price for Pedro. Nomar is being taken after several lesser shortstops in many leagues, and may be a bargain in your draft. If you take one major gamble this year, putting your money on Garciaparra wouldn’t be a bad choice.

3) How good will the Mets’ offense be?

Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Roger Cedeno, Mike Piazza, Rey Ordonez… Ok, just kidding about Ordonez, but the rest of the revamped Mets offense sounds like it could be one of the league’s powerhouses. Will a good lineup on paper translate into success in the box scores?

Fearless prediction: Look for Cedeno to be among the league’s leaders in stolen bases and improve his other numbers with a return to New York. Alomar is still the best fantasy second baseman on the planet, but temper your expectations a bit: hitting in Shea won’t help his stats, and adjusting to NL pitching isn’t easy, either. Vaughn should be decent, but don’t expect him to relive his glory days with Boston. The rest of the Mets’ regulars should improve a bit from last season, although Piazza may get a few more days off than he has in the past. Mets pitchers will also benefit, both from increased run support and improved defense. All in all, things are looking up for the Mets. (Don’t go overboard and pick up Ordonez, though.)

 
Next: More questions and more predictions, including thoughts on some young arms, the abundance of young third basemen, and JD Drew’s chances of reaching his great potential.